Regarding the "I'm a Loser" threads

[joethemoustache]

Quote from iceman1:



Joe...

Where might I get the motivational checklist on:

Fullfilling your Wildest Fantasies with the Prettiest Women in the World?

Or is it sold out?

Thnx.

I

ok icy, so you need motivation to get going with your fantasies? Running out of testosterone perhaps? I suggest you start with item no 7 from the above document:

7. ACCEPT THAT IT WILL NEVER BE EASY

 

[fl_trader001]

It's not like training for the olympics, although I can understand that choice of analogy, given some traders' "dreams of glory".

Nothing wrong with training for the olympics, or starting a new business, or trying trading - but when you start throwing away the kids college money and your life savings, or going into deep debt, (in trading, training, or a new business) you have to ask why a person would continue doing something so destructive.

You are not helping these people by saying - keep going, no matter what, keep LOSING! Follow your dreams!
You wouldn't encourage an alchoholic or drug addict (unless you were a vendor, oops I mean dealer)..

If someone wants to try trading, there is nothing wrong with going for it. But when the point comes where the mental and financial pain is so great, that that person's quality of life is reduced to an obsession with trying to be successful in something that is already rigged against them - that person does not need to be egged on to lose more money - they need to consider giving up.

Some of you, the only defense for your arguments is - if someone wants to trade, they should trade at all costs! That's stupid.
Some people, and I've met a few of them, they don't need to be anywhere near a trading screen, it is only going to do them harm.
The fact that they "want it so bad!" is not helpful, in fact it's irrational.

Let me clear up some things I said:

1. Trading for a living IS possible.
2. Not all traders are gamblers.
3. People who lose day after week after month should consider quitting. Saying that they should continue at all costs is stupid.
You aren't doing these people any favors.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from joethemoustache:



ok icy, so you need motivation to get going with your fantasies? Running out of testosterone perhaps? I suggest you start with item no 7 from the above document:

7. ACCEPT THAT IT WILL NEVER BE EASY

LOL



one can never get enough 'motivation' in dealing with women... don't you just love them all! Ummmm mmm. Sweet

 

[PuffyGums]

Quote from fl_trader001:


Let me clear up some things I said:

1. Trading for a living IS possible.
2. Not all traders are gamblers.
3. People who lose day after week after month should consider quitting. Saying that they should continue at all costs is stupid.
You aren't doing these people any favors.

About that timeline. I really think it takes 4 - 6 months to be able to evaluate a market in real time and formulate a trading strategy. That is, it takes 4 - 6 months after which you can meaningfully talk about beginning to learn trading. It may take several months after that to get the execution part sharpened, during which time there should be clear progress in your annotated charts and in your P&L. All in all, it might take 9 months to a year before you can reliably and safely execute numerous trades, day in and day out.

 

[PuffyGums]

Quote from fl_trader001:


[snip]

But when the point comes where the mental and financial pain is so great, that that person's quality of life is reduced to an obsession with trying to be successful in something that is already rigged against them -

[snip]

Any actiivity which has the possibility of profit is going to be 'rigged against you.'

Try something safe like... oh computer programming or web design. Its really hard to break into a field like that. Alot of people retrained and took those computer courses, but a minority actually ended up as programmers.

 

[hakeemjoe]

To me, it's very simple. If you're not profiting consistently, there's no reason you should be trying to make a living from your trading. That doesn't necessarily mean you should STOP, just that maybe you should find another source of income while you try to get better at your trading.

If you're consistently losing, you're either A) not cut out to be a trader at all, or B) still learning. If "A" then you should just quit, but even if it's "B" and you're going to continue, then at least start trading smaller. Why learn thousand dollar lessons when you could learn hundred dollar lessons, if the wisdom to be gained from the lesson is the same?

 

[iceman1]

warmer climate like FL.. you do much better. Is that true! Or is it too humid in the summer. I'm in Chicago freezing my butt off this winter.

 

[harrytrader]

I don't think that many said that they should continue at all costs. I said myself that if they can't afford it financially they should not keep going on. As for weeks or months well even some well known traders said that it took them years. It much depend on chance also. If you have chance at the beginning then it can take you a smaller time than if you have no chance. As in many things the first step conditionned the rest. So a good preparation can help. Unfortunately not many people has enough preparation including myself when I began. Someone on a public forum wrote a pdf relating in detail how many times and how much he has spent to finally succed. This guy was educated since he was an engineer. I must have stored the pdf somewhere, I will post it if I can find it again. In fact he believe he has succeed it can still be an illusion as I said probabilistically you cannot prove easily the true raison of success: it can still be du to hasard even if you last months or years depending on your horizon of trading and style.

Quote from fl_trader001:

Let me clear up some things I said:

1. Trading for a living IS possible.
2. Not all traders are gamblers.
3. People who lose day after week after month should consider quitting. Saying that they should continue at all costs is stupid.
You aren't doing these people any favors.

 

[slapshot]

Quote from PuffyGums:


About that timeline. I really think it takes 4 - 6 months to be able to evaluate a market in real time and formulate a trading strategy. That is, it takes 4 - 6 months after which you can meaningfully talk about beginning to learn trading. It may take several months after that to get the execution part sharpened, during which time there should be clear progress in your annotated charts and in your P&L. All in all, it might take 9 months to a year before you can reliably and safely execute numerous trades, day in and day out.

I have to agree with this wholeheartedly.


This is roughly the timeframe I am on - been trading full-time for about 7 months - and last month, finished ever so slightly down.

This is a vast improvement over the bleeding my resources took for the first 6 months. At this pace, I *should* be profitable within the next couple of months.

The first few months? I knew nothing about support/resistance, trend vs counter-trend, "edge", trading style, T/A, etc. etc.

Then I hit a point where I knew what to do but could not execute well. Hence a few more months of losing.

This last month, it all started coming together (with some help from a more experienced trader's advise)

See, the difference is, gamblers can't admit that they are the problem. It's always the House, other players, bad luck, etc.

Not since my first week of trading have I blamed anyone but myself for my losses.

The good news? I can fix that problem (ME).

My trading career is a work in progress, and I want it bad enough to keep facing the truth about my trading behaviors - therefore I will make it, just like in other areas of life.

And so can anyone else capable of "taking their own inventory".

The rest will all just say "it can't be done".

If you confuse tenacity with "delusional gambling blah blah blah" then I am guilty.

Regards,

Paul

 

[Baruch]

Quote from fl_trader001:

Some of you need to see the reality of the situation.

The reason why you want the lifestyle of a full-time trader is obvious. You can be your own boss, hang out all day making a fortune at a ridiculously easy job. It eliminates the need to go find a "real job", and the gambling thrill is very seductive.

Even the weakest and most irresponsible "dreams of glory" are milked by the brokers, firms, and vendors who want to sign you up as a customer, continuously making profits for them while you labor away and never quite make those profits.

The reality of the situation is this - real edges are extremely rare, and any that exist are guaranteed to be made extinct at some point (this is the nature of the markets). This is why even some of the "market wizards" went bust eventually. A losing trader wouldn't know a real edge if it was right in front of them, in any case. (They are usually too busy deciphering charts and researching the hundreds of methods out there that do not work)

Most traders fail, and this is not an accident or some random phenomenon. Your basic trading odds are 50/50, and this is made worse by human psychology, which works against you. Add into that commissions (the vig), and it is almost laughable that people think they can make a living daytrading.

Vic Neiderhoffer observed that if you were to flip a coin, winning a dollar if you guessed right, losing a dollar if you guessed wrong, but had to pay 20 cents on every flip (comms), your odds of coming out ahead after 200 flips is less than 1/100,000. Worth betting your financial future on?

You can tell a compulsive gambler pretty easily. They are always "on the verge of success". The problem is always their broker, or the specialist, or the markets aren't what they used to be, or the ECNs are too slow, etc.. etc.. They use others as examples - "well, so and so made $600k last year daytrading - it said so on Elitetrader". Many of these stories are just plain false, or worse - lies. Others that do succeed, sometimes do so only because of luck, and eventually their luck runs out, and they find another line of work.

There is a simple way to tell if you are a complusive gambler, and therefore a danger to yourself and people around you, and whether to know if you should quit and quit now -

If you are breaking even - are you enjoying it? If so, have at it.

If you are making money, you are doing the wise thing by trading.
(By "making money", I don't mean profitable SOMETIMES - look at your income tax return for the year - did your trading pay off?)

Are you losing money? If you are consistently losing money, and do not take a serious look at stopping the damage now, there is no explanation but you are caught in the delusional state of a compulsive gambler.

The real edge: Confidence.