Regarding the "I'm a Loser" threads

[swoop[TR]]

Your thinking is so simplistic it is appaling. Go and check out statistics on how many businesses fail within the first two years of operation. When you have the statistic bring it back to me.

Everything in life is difficult, even finding a job is hard, I'm sure most people get at least 90% rejection letters, SO WHAT? Does that mean, [we] should just give up everything and try suicide (which might have a better rate of success)? What are you trying to prove? This backward thinking is starting to get to me and I'm part of the 10%. And for the record, those writing about how impossible trading is, are from losing traders themselves. How biased is that?
Show me empirical evidence of what you are asserting.

 

[daniel_m]

Quote from fl_trader001:

I did not say that being a successful full-time trader is impossible.
I did say, and reiterate here that someone who is losing consistently should not continue to trade, for their own good.

ok genius, so what sort of time frame should people be looking at?

how long do people have to turn profitable before they "should not continue to trade, for their own good"?

immediately? after 10 trades? 2 weeks? how long?

obviously you are suggesting that there is an objective way to measure how long someone should attempt trading before becoming a 'hopeful gambler', so what is it?


also, i'm curious as to how you would go about reconciling statements from verified top traders -- you know, people that make $$$ trading -- that the learning curve can take around 2 years with your recommendation to quit if you're losing money 'consistently' (whatever that means)??

 

[daniel_m]

Quote from fl_trader001:

The odds of having a successful trade each time out is 50/50. The only reasonable

i can only hope that you made that statement out of convenience...not because you actually believe it..

if you do actually believe it, that alone should be enough to disqualify your opinion on this topic from any serious consideration.

 

[jaan]

Quote from fl_trader001:
If they were so ruled by odds, the 90% failure rate would have prevented them from trading in the first place!

why do athletes participate in olympics? because they're clueless about probabilities?

- jaan

 

[peg_leg_joe]

Quote from swoop[TR]:

Your thinking is so simplistic it is appalling. Go and check out statistics on how many businesses fail within the first two years of operation. When you have the statistic bring it back to me.

Everything in life is difficult, even finding a job is hard, I'm sure most people get at least 90% rejection letters, SO WHAT? Does that mean, [we] should just give up everything and try suicide (which might have a better rate of success)? What are you trying to prove? This backward thinking is starting to get to me and I'm part of the 10%. And for the record, those writing about how impossible trading is, are from losing traders themselves. How biased is that?
Show me empirical evidence of what you are asserting.

Exactly!! The failure rate of new businesses is very similar to the failure rate of trading businesses. TRADING IS A BUSINESS. All too many people forget that. How many of you have taken the time to actually write out a trading business plan??

Re: Suicide. Even suicide has a high failure rate (higher than you'd expect). I know because I was a suicide prevention counselor for 3 years.

I'm going to say some things that are kind of macabre, so don't read the rest of this post if you are squirmish, or you think I'm tasteless:

Suicide Success rates (approximate):

Taking a fistful of over-the-counter pills: 10-20%

Slashing the wrists with a razor: 10-30% (most make a transverse rather than a longitudinal incision of the brachial artery)

Hanging: 30-60% (usually results in death, but they often use a rope that is too short, and therefore asphyxiate, and suffer needlessly, instead of instantly severing the cervical spinal cord)

Gun to the head: 70-100% (pretty effective, but if you don't die, you'll wish to God you had...if you're even able to think at all)

Jumping off a tall building: 95-100% (again, if you don't die, you'll wish you did)


The reality is that most suicide attempts are actually a desperate cry for help, and it is not always the person's intention to perish. It saddens me that people are so mean to each other some times.

But most people are good-hearted souls.

 

[daniel_m]

sheesh what a bunch of quitters!

so the fistful of over the counter pills didn't work the first time.....TRY AGAIN!

 

[dbphoenix]

Though God knows I don't want to offend anybody, the perpetual You Can Do It rah rah that I find on these threads, even though the recipient has been losing for two or three or four years, strikes me as mindless boosterism.

Perhaps fl trader is suggesting that one give up too soon. But most of the people on these boards seem to feel that one should never give up at all, perhaps because they themselves are still losing and don't want to face certain realities.

--Db

 

[peg_leg_joe]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Though God knows I don't want to offend anybody, the perpetual You Can Do It rah rah that I find on these threads, even though the recipient has been losing for two or three or four years, strikes me as mindless boosterism.

Perhaps fl trader is suggesting that one give up too soon. But most of the people on these boards seem to feel that one should never give up at all, perhaps because they themselves are still losing and don't want to face certain realities.

--Db

I do agree with you that someone who has not learned to trade profitably after 3-4 years should throw in the towel. However, a person needs to give themselves enough time to get over the learning curve, and I think that learning curve can take 1-2 years for a lot of people. I know a bunch of profitable traders who lost money their first year, even their first two years. What one needs to do is step back and reflect on themselves. I would suggest the following:

1. Ask yourself, do you REALLY have a passion for the markets and trading, or are you just in it for the "perceived" monetary rewards that you believe you will reap once you become successful.

2. Ask yourself if there is something else in life that you would rather be doing. Not everybody has to be a trader, just like not everybody has to be a dentist or a lawyer or an auto mechanic.

3. Determine if you are trading to trade well (and to make a reasonable living), or if you are trading for excitement (gambling in other words). There is no easy way to do this (it's not as easy as simply observing that you're "always believing you are on the verge of success") You need to find out if you have an addictive personality. You need to find out if you have a compulsive personality. You need to find out if you are have a delusional personality. You might be able to find the answers to these questions on your own, or maybe with a one- or two-session stint with a psychotherapist.

4. Do you have the financial means to continue trading even if this year is not your "breakout" year? Can you support yourself and your family, if you have one to support, with funds outside of your trading account?

5. You need to draw a line in the sand. What I mean is that you need to set a concrete date or equity drawdown amount when you will call it quits, no questions asked, if you are not making the transition to profitability.

6. The honest to goodness truth is that trading is not for everyone. MAKE SURE IT IS YOUR CALLING IN LIFE BEFORE YOU THROW AWAY YOUR LIFE SAVINGS.

Reflect on yourself. Be brutally honest with yourself. It's not easy to be brutally honest with yourself, as we as human beings use defense mechanisms to shield us from what we don't want to believe about ourselves. However, it can be done, and must be done if you are a loser in the markets and are not sure if you should continue.

Peace.

 

[leonj]

sound thinking!

 

[thetraderprofit]

Fla Trader001,


I have been a compulsive gambler, as well as a daytrader.

Frankly you are wrong about several things:

1) That people on ET lie about income--no evidence is presented for this , it's your opinion. I happen to know that it's not true because I personally have traded with a half-dozen or so of the posters. In fact, the really good traders make you think they are not successful. I know of one poster who made $2 mill last year as well as $300k in Jan '03. You wouldn't know it from his writings.

2) That trading is a 50/50 game. I've made money in both "good" and "bad" markets. I have more than a 50% advantage because I have structural advantages over other trades.

When I moved to Las Vegas at age 38 , my parents, instead of wishing me luck said:

Father:"Do you think that's a wise move, son?"
Mother: "What do you plan to do about your gambling problem?"

My answer then and now, is to disprove non-believers by making enough money to PAY for my gambling problem.
After all, no compulsive gambler has a real gambling problem, they just have a MONEY problem.

You obviously haven't found a strategy that works consistently in trading, so you assume it's not possible to do so.