Quote from Brandonf:
I would be inclined to agree. Refco is probably done, their underwritters are probably in a world of shit too.
Yeah, here in NY, all the storm brewing is not over Refco possibly going down (they are small in from a NY perspective), but it is YetAnotherFailedIPO. The consensus is that while this won't hurt GS / BA / CSFB in the pocket book too much, it will tarnish their banking image. Trouble with this scandal is that is seems "systematic" (quarterly shuffles, etc), and yet the due diligence didn't even bring up any thing.
I know that a few Refco defenders will cringe at this, but a couple of observations.
One, based on last night, more than a few of the Refco guys are already sending out feelers to other firms about leaving, honestly, as a friend, my advice is "better to sit out the storm watching than in it". Their options are effectively worthless, and this year's bonuses look like toast as well.
Two, what Refco (Bennett) did through the receivable (position?!) shuffle is very similiar in nature with what Ebbers + Sullivan did at MCI Worldcom. Worldcom was shuffling expenditures as capital investments, therefore reducing the cost of operations (and avoiding to write off the expenditures at once), therefore padding the bottome line. Agreed that what Refco did was significantly smaller in size, but similar in nature.