Redditor yoloing on AAPL
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
Pretty normal for front months to almost keep their value in the week before earnings. That Feb-17 IV isn't really up by that much though. But the Feb-03 straddle has probably gained value from last Friday or even the week before.
Apple Feb-03 straddle is only 4.20... 3,5% of underlying... not expensive. Likely to be less of a mover.... OTM puts make a nice little gamble though...
Big movers that have earnings in the second half of the week of expiration will always keep their straddle value... that's almost a fact. Buy the 1-week straddle on Friday with earnings coming next week... you will not lose over the weekend. Plus you basically get free potential movement over the weekend!
Apple Feb-03 straddle is only 4.20... 3,5% of underlying... not expensive. Likely to be less of a mover.... OTM puts make a nice little gamble though...
Big movers that have earnings in the second half of the week of expiration will always keep their straddle value... that's almost a fact. Buy the 1-week straddle on Friday with earnings coming next week... you will not lose over the weekend. Plus you basically get free potential movement over the weekend!
Okay, I call bullshit...
Just watched a bit of Martin Shrekli speaking to this dude on Facebook live stream. He says he's been trading Apple since the 90's... so at least for the past 17 years, says he's an Apple expert.
He got this inheritance 3.5 years ago, traded/gambled most away. Has 350k left, of which most is in his IB account...
However, he doesn't have money to buy a 5 dollar webcam to livestream his epiphany/failure and probably needs to get it from his mom...
So,... surely he's not older than 20.... which makes him 3 years old when he first traded Apple...
Just watched a bit of Martin Shrekli speaking to this dude on Facebook live stream. He says he's been trading Apple since the 90's... so at least for the past 17 years, says he's an Apple expert.
He got this inheritance 3.5 years ago, traded/gambled most away. Has 350k left, of which most is in his IB account...
However, he doesn't have money to buy a 5 dollar webcam to livestream his epiphany/failure and probably needs to get it from his mom...
So,... surely he's not older than 20.... which makes him 3 years old when he first traded Apple...
The big day is here, I will post a link to the live stream later on. His latest:
"Here's my reasoning:
1) Apple WILL fall after earnings. It falls even when it beats and it's not going to beat.
2) Apple WILL NOT beat earnings estimates. Their sales in China are, like Mr. President Trump would say, a "total disaster." They get beaten by every manufacturer there.
3) Apple will fall and with it being at $122, there is no way it doesn't break below $120.
4) Thus, the calls I sold at $120 will be valueless. I could stop here and keep the premium for them, but I am pretty certain AAPL will not stop flush at $119.99. I think it will be attracted like a magnet to $115 in AH.
5) I COULD just buy $120 puts like Mr. Shkreli, a far better and more experienced trader than I'll ever be, has suggested. In fact, that would be the "safe" play.
6) But my $110, $105 and $100 puts should also gain in value given the time to expiration (more than 2 weeks) when Apple reaches $115.
7) Of course, there's always the chance of the "Hillary Clinton" scenario, with Apple quickly falling under $110, then $105, then $100. Yes, I think Apple's earnings are THAT bad.
8) Like I said, I have been trading AAPL for 20+ years and I have never, ever lost money trading Apple one single time.
9) General market is also down, which helped cement my decision. Futures are crashing.
10) Yolo.
I have made my decision and will stick to it. Shall I lose my entire $300,000, well, it won't be the first time I lose $300,000.'"
Link to the Shkreli interview: (Martin makes a lot of sense)
"Here's my reasoning:
1) Apple WILL fall after earnings. It falls even when it beats and it's not going to beat.
2) Apple WILL NOT beat earnings estimates. Their sales in China are, like Mr. President Trump would say, a "total disaster." They get beaten by every manufacturer there.
3) Apple will fall and with it being at $122, there is no way it doesn't break below $120.
4) Thus, the calls I sold at $120 will be valueless. I could stop here and keep the premium for them, but I am pretty certain AAPL will not stop flush at $119.99. I think it will be attracted like a magnet to $115 in AH.
5) I COULD just buy $120 puts like Mr. Shkreli, a far better and more experienced trader than I'll ever be, has suggested. In fact, that would be the "safe" play.
6) But my $110, $105 and $100 puts should also gain in value given the time to expiration (more than 2 weeks) when Apple reaches $115.
7) Of course, there's always the chance of the "Hillary Clinton" scenario, with Apple quickly falling under $110, then $105, then $100. Yes, I think Apple's earnings are THAT bad.
8) Like I said, I have been trading AAPL for 20+ years and I have never, ever lost money trading Apple one single time.
9) General market is also down, which helped cement my decision. Futures are crashing.
10) Yolo.
I have made my decision and will stick to it. Shall I lose my entire $300,000, well, it won't be the first time I lose $300,000.'"
Link to the Shkreli interview: (Martin makes a lot of sense)
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He's nuts too. All that is priced in. Elephants have been pushing this thing back and forward at very high volume at $120ish for the last 15 sessions.
There is no way its going down. I As I have said, I think it'll be flat, ...maybe up $6 or $7. Thats it. He's fvcked.
Hope he doesn't stream some suicide stuff.
What is that accent? Sounds almost Hispanic. Certainly not the accent of someone who comes from a long line of Canadian maple syrup makers... I wouldn't think.
Does Canada have those funny electric plugs? I can't remember.