Recovery is Looking Like a 'Z'-shape Recovery, Here's Why
- Thread starter MacroTOMI
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It is good that everyone is worried about this. That means we have lots of up room to go.
Exactly - and we reach a point where it takes to much stimulus to keep us moving sideways, never mind up - I believe we are close to that point. Q2 GDP figures are going to have a major market effect
Did you see what happened at 3:15PM ET when Biden mentioned the Wall Street/corporate stuff? Just a taste of things to come.
From Bloomberg email newsletter few days ago:
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
Yesterday I wrote about the rapid rise in permanent unemployment. While the vast majority of people who have lost their jobs so far in this crisis are technically on temporary layoffs -- people who hopefully will go back to their old roles when the virus is beaten -- a number of jobs are already gone for good.
Here's another way of looking at it. For a long time, Bill McBride, the great blogger at the site Calculated Risk, has been putting together a great chart comparing the trajectory of job losses in different recessions, and you can see how this crisis looks nothing like other recessions. Just totally different in scale and shape.
But of course, most of the job losses in prior recessions weren't initially characterized as temporary, so the comparison isn't exactly apples to apples. So I asked him to make a version that looked just at permanent layoffs. And the chart at this point looks like this.
The glass half-full scenario here is that permanent job losses are still not nearly as deep as last time. So far in this crisis, we've lost just over 1% of jobs on a gone-for-good basis. On the other hand, these losses starting off way faster and way steeper. And in the meantime, the massive stimulus has already gone out the door, and we still haven't gotten the virus under control.
Either way, in a sense, it's this red line, not the exaggerated line from above, that gives the clearest picture of the recession, since it represents clear economic damage, as opposed to virus mitigation efforts. As Washington D.C. gears up for another round of stimulus talks, this is the chart to think about, with a goal of preventing it from getting as bad as last time. It's arguably not as bad as last time yet, but the direction so far is way worse.
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
Yesterday I wrote about the rapid rise in permanent unemployment. While the vast majority of people who have lost their jobs so far in this crisis are technically on temporary layoffs -- people who hopefully will go back to their old roles when the virus is beaten -- a number of jobs are already gone for good.
Here's another way of looking at it. For a long time, Bill McBride, the great blogger at the site Calculated Risk, has been putting together a great chart comparing the trajectory of job losses in different recessions, and you can see how this crisis looks nothing like other recessions. Just totally different in scale and shape.
But of course, most of the job losses in prior recessions weren't initially characterized as temporary, so the comparison isn't exactly apples to apples. So I asked him to make a version that looked just at permanent layoffs. And the chart at this point looks like this.
The glass half-full scenario here is that permanent job losses are still not nearly as deep as last time. So far in this crisis, we've lost just over 1% of jobs on a gone-for-good basis. On the other hand, these losses starting off way faster and way steeper. And in the meantime, the massive stimulus has already gone out the door, and we still haven't gotten the virus under control.
Either way, in a sense, it's this red line, not the exaggerated line from above, that gives the clearest picture of the recession, since it represents clear economic damage, as opposed to virus mitigation efforts. As Washington D.C. gears up for another round of stimulus talks, this is the chart to think about, with a goal of preventing it from getting as bad as last time. It's arguably not as bad as last time yet, but the direction so far is way worse.
I stepped out for the last hour. But I cannot wait for the biden party. I hate saying this but if the nasdaq keeps partying like its 1999 trump will win especially if they hand out more trillions this month.
No if's, and's or but's Bitch McConnell doesn't want to upset Chumpie and if current political sentiment continues the only hope to get re-elected is with more free money. Oh how it will kill the Speaker to pass another stim bill lol.
Either way whoever wins, taxes to pay for it all, are going up. But you can bet if Biden is the winner sheeple will say "See what happened, they elected a Dem and taxes went up. I told you so".
Either way whoever wins, taxes to pay for it all, are going up. But you can bet if Biden is the winner sheeple will say "See what happened, they elected a Dem and taxes went up. I told you so".
The DOW? Who cares about the DOW??? This isn’t 1960.
Nasdaq all time highs every day
S&P Barely down on the year
When the PPP and Cares end, there will be PPP2 and Cares2.
Why over think this?
If/when the bailouts and money printing doesn’t work you will have time to sell.
Until then ride this obscenely ridiculous tech bubble like its 1999.
I also tend to think the economy isnt based on producing refrigerators anymore. (it would be good to still have those industries with good paying jobs, but back to)
My theory is that during the Information Age the United States economy is the global power because of companies such as MSFT, AAPL, INTC, you see where I am going with this?
I am all for being Bearish, as it makes some sense but not berry Bearish. When I asked my buddy who is an infectious disease specialist around February, "what the **** is going on with this Coronavirus he replied "I dont know". My personal MD more recently told me "its not the ****ing plague". Most of us will have to show up back to work soon. The world isnt ending no matter how big your short position is.
On the magic printer I also have some ideas, hint. Zimbawbe, Uruguay, Burma also have a printer but there is a reason it isnt "magic"
My theory is that during the Information Age the United States economy is the global power because of companies such as MSFT, AAPL, INTC, you see where I am going with this?
I am all for being Bearish, as it makes some sense but not berry Bearish. When I asked my buddy who is an infectious disease specialist around February, "what the **** is going on with this Coronavirus he replied "I dont know". My personal MD more recently told me "its not the ****ing plague". Most of us will have to show up back to work soon. The world isnt ending no matter how big your short position is.
On the magic printer I also have some ideas, hint. Zimbawbe, Uruguay, Burma also have a printer but there is a reason it isnt "magic"