IMO: Bear market is coming. Why? the interest cuts are already priced in, job numbers can only go worse, consumer sales are off projections, just wait for the Christmas sales reports, adjustable mortgage resets will peak in March thus the financial crisis is not over + home sales data will be readjusted to even lower numbers. Add to this inflation including gasoline and food (wholesale numbers). And exclude govenment orders from economy growth numbers, and see what we are left with.
Thank you A.Greenspan! Whateven fueled comsumer spending in the last years, i.e. home refinancing and home equity loans aren't there any more. The home ATM is closed. Thus consumers will spend less and consumers account for 2/3 of spendings in US.
Today: If Intel would have reported miss in revenue during the regular trading session, Nasdaq would have been off 100 points, Dow Jones 350/400 points.
What would gov do? lower taxes, may be $600 per household tax rebate, lower interest rates an let the inflation go higher. Dollar will fall even further against Euro during 2008.
tradingboy
http://www.ashkon.com
Thank you A.Greenspan! Whateven fueled comsumer spending in the last years, i.e. home refinancing and home equity loans aren't there any more. The home ATM is closed. Thus consumers will spend less and consumers account for 2/3 of spendings in US.
Today: If Intel would have reported miss in revenue during the regular trading session, Nasdaq would have been off 100 points, Dow Jones 350/400 points.
What would gov do? lower taxes, may be $600 per household tax rebate, lower interest rates an let the inflation go higher. Dollar will fall even further against Euro during 2008.
tradingboy
http://www.ashkon.com