it's a newbie question, but, wouldn't one expect a currency to down in a recession, even further after everyone agrees one has started? so....i suppose the poll would be where, using the USD as an example, would you expect the direction to go.
if the recession corrects imbalances, IE lessens imports, reduced oil demand, made people pay back debt (in usd especially) and start saving...... well that wouldn't be negative for USD imo?
on the other hand if everyone just went deeper in debt, and banks failed, and jobs vanished, then it wouldnt be good for USD
$USD could fall based upon falling interest rates from slowing economy and loss of confidence in US.
$USD could rise based upon foreign investors dumping US Teasuries, which would cause interest rates to rise and thus make $USD more attractive to yield players.
