Recession next year?
- Thread starter Hook N. Sinker
- Start date
Quote from bjg:
It was at all time highs in 29 as well.
Markets usually peak before they head down.
All time highs in 1987 and 2000 as well. Any others? Markets don't crash at their lows. (Exception I think is the market crashed again after 1929 before it reached a new high.)
Excellent Commentary All
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Paulson & Bernanke...
The only weapon against a declining dollar is higher interest rates...and it is higher interest rates that will negatively affect housing and stock market numbers...
The other item of course is that if the policy is to allow a weak dollar....then real oil prices rise accordingly....
The market is suggesting that a weaker dollar is more tolerable than higher rates....
If rates are perceived lower....thus the dollar is perceived lower...and money moves towards quality stocks....
If rates are perceived higher...thus the dollar is perceived higher...and oil prices are perceived lower...and money moves away from housing and stocks...
Paulson indicates that he will be in favor of whatever will make the US more competitive...Thus what is it...a stronger dollar or a weaker dollar ? If the answer is a stronger dollar...then rates are moving higher....
Going to be a very interesting cat fight...
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Paulson & Bernanke...
The only weapon against a declining dollar is higher interest rates...and it is higher interest rates that will negatively affect housing and stock market numbers...
The other item of course is that if the policy is to allow a weak dollar....then real oil prices rise accordingly....
The market is suggesting that a weaker dollar is more tolerable than higher rates....
If rates are perceived lower....thus the dollar is perceived lower...and money moves towards quality stocks....
If rates are perceived higher...thus the dollar is perceived higher...and oil prices are perceived lower...and money moves away from housing and stocks...
Paulson indicates that he will be in favor of whatever will make the US more competitive...Thus what is it...a stronger dollar or a weaker dollar ? If the answer is a stronger dollar...then rates are moving higher....
Going to be a very interesting cat fight...
I see consolidation in everything Economic...sorry for the simplistic comment. It's just what I see.
The Future is the "global' economy...whether that be good or bad, up or down.... is not the point.
The movement of money and the politics of the thing, is revealing...and can be tradeable for the few.
connect the dots
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The Future is the "global' economy...whether that be good or bad, up or down.... is not the point.
The movement of money and the politics of the thing, is revealing...and can be tradeable for the few.
connect the dots
â¢â¢â¢ÂºÂºÂº
ºººâ¢â¢â¢
On one hand: The Economy is unequal to the Stock marked. Stock valuations arenât bad at all. If a recession kicks in inflation, short and long term rates will go lower. The 7.3% yield on the S&P 500 will then look very attractive in a relative way.
On the other: Can continued globalization, more exports due to weaker dollar, a reduction in the risk premium in commodity markets due to excessive inflation fears, more business spending and possibly lower short term rates save the Economy even if this is the biggest Housing slump in 5 decades.
Is this a good or a very good time to invest in stocks?
Not much of a cat fight at all. Rates hiked, US economy falters, US economy slows, world economy slows more, US and world interest rates fall, but US spread higher than world rates so US dollar remains more bid than expected. Stocks meander, oil remains unchanged in real terms, bonds rally, and US economy starts up again so that it can raise again. That's the plan for the next 36 months, anyway.