Watch some old porno with Ron Jermy humping a bunch of pale silly babes with total contempt on his face..
Recession is coming ? Take a hard look
- Thread starter HedgefundTrader2
- Start date
Watch some old porno with Ron Jermy humping a bunch of pale silly babes with total contempt on his face..
The Beige Book is garbage.
Pulling this snippet from Herb Greenberg's blog, Beating up on the Beige Book
âThe Beige Book doesnât have the greatest track record for predicting recessions, or even noticing ones that have already begun. On March 7, 2001, the same month the recession began, the Beige Book reported that seven of the 12 banks reported âgrowth,â while only one bank reported ânoticeably slower economic activity.â
He added this, from a March 1999 paper by the Minneapolis Fed:
While the gathering of regional information for the Beige Book provides value to the FOMC as a reflection of the economy, the national summary based on the compilation of regional reports does not improve upon private sector forecasts. Consequentlyâbecause the Beige Book does not improve upon private sector forecasts, and because the FOMC looks at an array of forecasts and national indicators, and Board staff generates its own forecastsâthe Beige Book is not a good indicator of the future course of monetary policy.
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Here's the indicators the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to declare recessions (from Kudlow's blog):
Here's the same indicators back in 2001, Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001
No one knows what the real state of the economy is in today. Only the future can tell us what is happening today.
Quote from Covertibility:
The Beige Book is garbage.
Pulling this snippet from Herb Greenberg's blog, Beating up on the Beige Book
âThe Beige Book doesnât have the greatest track record for predicting recessions, or even noticing ones that have already begun. On March 7, 2001, the same month the recession began, the Beige Book reported that seven of the 12 banks reported âgrowth,â while only one bank reported ânoticeably slower economic activity.â
He added this, from a March 1999 paper by the Minneapolis Fed:
While the gathering of regional information for the Beige Book provides value to the FOMC as a reflection of the economy, the national summary based on the compilation of regional reports does not improve upon private sector forecasts. Consequentlyâbecause the Beige Book does not improve upon private sector forecasts, and because the FOMC looks at an array of forecasts and national indicators, and Board staff generates its own forecastsâthe Beige Book is not a good indicator of the future course of monetary policy.
----------
Here's the indicators the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to declare recessions (from Kudlow's blog):
Here's the same indicators back in 2001, Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001
No one knows what the real state of the economy is in today. Only the future can tell us what is happening today.
The charts look mighty nice, at least I give you hats off on that. Impressed.
Ned Davis's work shows that the price of gold is most highly corellated with real interest rates. As real rates decline, gold has historically risen.
Both equities and some cash commodities were in part fueled by an unprecedented expansion in credit over the past 5 years. Now that the credit expansion has come to a screeching halt, it will affect all markets from housing, equities, but perhaps to a much lessor extent, gold.
Have you guys seen the chart showing the schedule for resets over the upcoming months? makes last year look like the head of a pin. Fed can drop rates to zero, but remember the old expression - pushing on a string?
Both equities and some cash commodities were in part fueled by an unprecedented expansion in credit over the past 5 years. Now that the credit expansion has come to a screeching halt, it will affect all markets from housing, equities, but perhaps to a much lessor extent, gold.
Have you guys seen the chart showing the schedule for resets over the upcoming months? makes last year look like the head of a pin. Fed can drop rates to zero, but remember the old expression - pushing on a string?
Told you several days ago no recession. Since than we have :
1. Whitehouse/ Congress stimulus package
2. Fed's massive rate cut
That will force people trying to hide in money market account at 3.5% ( money market rate drop immediately) to come in the market place and buy stocks.
Recessions are highly unlikely in an election year.
1. Whitehouse/ Congress stimulus package
2. Fed's massive rate cut
That will force people trying to hide in money market account at 3.5% ( money market rate drop immediately) to come in the market place and buy stocks.
Recessions are highly unlikely in an election year.
so, what about the last one in election year 2000?
I doubt that was a recession. But I donot see a recession happening now in reality. There are various fears you can scare yourself with why chose recession? The fears will end it all if you are not careful...
We are in a recession. Now we have another mater and that's credit card debt.
This all isn't good. An analyst said we probably started a recession at the end of the 4th quarter of last year and he says we can get out of it by the 2nd half of next year. Problem is the 2nd half is when all the debt starts taking it's toll. The subprime mess will only get worse by then so forget a housing recovery. Did you see the ISM. Worse than expected. That's not a sign of recovery. What's next? Credit card woes and unemployment gets worse. None of this will be recovery stepping stones. Mark this post and prove me wrong but I've been mostly right.