Recession is coming ? Take a hard look

Quote from mokwit:

What goldilcks will learn is never trust the talking heads, unfortunately a sound rogering from the bears is required before the lesson sinks in.
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Spreading FEAR.

Spreading PANIC

Spreading DISINFORMATION.

Goldman Sachs also chimes in with a neat balloon, those tight fist ed institutional traders whose greed never ceases to amaze me.

It will be highly unlikely we'll have a recession in an election year!
When it happens after 2 quarters of negative GDP growth let me know.

I am not going to sell our stocks and starts shorting when the Feds are about to cut rates any day. This will blow up big time in the face.
 
Go right ahead, it's your money, at least for a while.

Fed has cut more than once already, is the market higher or lower since then? Ask someone who can't make the payments on his house if there needs to be 2 negative quarters before there is anything wrong. That is the most ridiculous primetime viewer definition of a recession I have ever heard, like the 10% = a correction etc. All this stuff on TV is propaganda for cretins t stop them selling.
 
Quote from mokwit:

Go right ahead, it's your money, at least for a while.

Fed has cut more than once already, is the market higher or lower since then? Ask someone who can't make the payments on his house if there needs to be 2 negative quarters before there is anything wrong. That is the most ridiculous primetime viewer definition of a recession I have ever heard, like the 10% = a correction etc. All this stuff on TV is propaganda for cretins t stop them selling.
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Than you can define your own recession and start selling. Not making payments on the mortgage is not a defination of a recession. Its heart wrenching to see that but it has nothing to do with the defination of a recession.


Everytime Feds have cuts rates stock market zoomed up 300-1000 points last year. Major rallies followed. This time it won't be any different either.
 
I'm as bearish as I've been in years though long with my money since the last hour Friday for a swing trade - a lot of it in financials.

IMO the Fed has made a huge mistake not cutting 50 last week or this week and then 50 again at the regular meeting at month's end. While I do not believe cuts can avoid recessions, I do believe they can reduce the length and severity. The specific mistake was not paying attention to the short term and anecdotcal stuff - senior loan officer and other surveys, retailers' EPS, the XMAS disaster, falling financial asset and RE prices, vacancy rates, and the data they get from the regional Feds. This is the stuff that goes into psychology and spending/hiring plans for the year - which they have clearly misinterpreted. See, out here in biz world, I haven't seen a level of concern like what I see now for years. This feels more extreme and unsettled than the tech stock bust which nobody in the real bricks and mortar world gave a sht about. NYT finally getting a sense of it this AM I see:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

This recession started in December. Thus Bush will have had two during his admin.
 
This is unlike any other time in the history of our country. Both parents are now working and we are tapped out. What's next the children have to stay until they are 30 to help the parents live "The American Dream?"

Our gov't has spent us into oblivion and we have followed suit.

China doesn't need us, WE NEED THEM. Consumption isn't growth, it isn't wealth. Saving, investing, and producing is growth. We have a negative savings rate for the first time since the Great Depression, we have been forced to seek foreign investment to keep our biggest banks from going bankrupt, and we produce nothing but debt.

When evaluating foreign debt you're not so much worried about default but moreso getting paid back in depreciated money. Is China going to continue to lend us money and hope we pay them back with depreciated USDs? Are we going to continue to refinance our nat'l debt with adjustable (short-term) t-bills? What is going to happen when our short term rates go up? What happens when we have to pay trillions of dollars a year in interest on debt to foreigners?

Super-mega-ultra-hyperinflation.

Or?

Default and introduce a new currency?
 
Bush ends economic difficulties with wars.That was a nasty incident with Iranian speed boats the other day.It's always possible to make the other side fire the first shot.
 
Quote from number22:

There is no recession; gold is on fire...
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No, gold went from 800 to 900 since september, dollar went down from 1.36 to 1.48 (to the EUR). There is hardly difference in real, global value.
 
Quote from Trader5287:

I'm as bearish as I've been in years though long with my money since the last hour Friday for a swing trade - a lot of it in financials.

IMO the Fed has made a huge mistake not cutting 50 last week or this week and then 50 again at the regular meeting at month's end. While I do not believe cuts can avoid recessions, I do believe they can reduce the length and severity. The specific mistake was not paying attention to the short term and anecdotcal stuff - senior loan officer and other surveys, retailers' EPS, the XMAS disaster, falling financial asset and RE prices, vacancy rates, and the data they get from the regional Feds. This is the stuff that goes into psychology and spending/hiring plans for the year - which they have clearly misinterpreted. See, out here in biz world, I haven't seen a level of concern like what I see now for years. This feels more extreme and unsettled than the tech stock bust which nobody in the real bricks and mortar world gave a sht about. NYT finally getting a sense of it this AM I see:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/business/14spend.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

This recession started in December. Thus Bush will have had two during his admin.
More...


I can't believe what a bunch of depressed pessimists congregate here. Sky is falling, recession has started, real estate bubble and all kinds of negative thinking and output and a very poor outlook in life in general.

The fact is there is no recession yet and the market has not turned bearish. Get your bearings right, your navigation is extremely poor.
 
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