Recession Imminent If Fed Starts Easing
- Thread starter myminitrading
- Start date
Hi, there are some on ET that actual demonstrate independent thought rather than goose stepping to whatever drum you march to.
Let me guess, you watch Fox News as your primary news source as well?
There are so many fallacies with the above that its really not worth arguing, but just because one is or isn't true doesn't make all of the false.
A = B (Sarcastically, meaning your saying it doesn't)
C = D (Sarcastically, meaning your saying it doesn't)
E = F (Sarcastically, meaning your saying it doesn't)
so clearly, G doesn't equal G, right?
Plus, if A = B, than S&P value = 0 is another fallacy.
Keep on watching Fox buddy,
its all fair and balanced!
Makloda,
You know I am a long term bull, I know the markets natural tendency is to rise. All I am saying is from a psychological stand point buyers will pull back and wait for lower rates, this will cause softness in the economy.
I was talking yesterday to a total stranger in a carpet store about rates, she was going to do a home equity loan and has now decided to wait for lower rates. Their are millions just like her.
The fed by lowering rates, and signaling more to come will cause more weakness in the economy.
You know I am a long term bull, I know the markets natural tendency is to rise. All I am saying is from a psychological stand point buyers will pull back and wait for lower rates, this will cause softness in the economy.
I was talking yesterday to a total stranger in a carpet store about rates, she was going to do a home equity loan and has now decided to wait for lower rates. Their are millions just like her.
The fed by lowering rates, and signaling more to come will cause more weakness in the economy.
I find it totally irresponsibly for the fed to easy with oil now up and over $80.00.
I pray enough of them have the balls to do what is right and thats nothing.
I pray enough of them have the balls to do what is right and thats nothing.
The fed and government should not bail out reckless behavior, its sends a terrible message, and may cause more reckless behavior when our county is in a vulnerable state.
Reckless behavior?? I am not trying to justify the spending behavior that has been going on, but the fed(not the government) did promote this type of spending with incredibly low interest rates in the beginning of the decade. Rates came flying down to help get people borrowing money and spending money to stimulate growth; unfortunately the fed did a bad job of easing interest rates back up as things began to stabilize and growth started picking up. They need to ease back a little and work their way back to a stable level.
Reckless behavior?? I am not trying to justify the spending behavior that has been going on, but the fed(not the government) did promote this type of spending with incredibly low interest rates in the beginning of the decade. Rates came flying down to help get people borrowing money and spending money to stimulate growth; unfortunately the fed did a bad job of easing interest rates back up as things began to stabilize and growth started picking up. They need to ease back a little and work their way back to a stable level.
Adjusted for inflation, there hasn't been any time in the last 30 years when the Fed has started on a rate-cutting cycle when interest rates adjusted for inflation were as low as they are today.
there won't be a recession
S&P is only 5% off highs. The economy is slowing, inflation is increasing, greedy banks and hedge funds are over extended, consumer spending is slowing, morgage resets are starting, oil is at highs, other commodities like grains are at all time highs,(VIX) volatility is holding higher levels,the $USD is at lows, and were due for a market correction nearing the end of one of the longest bull runs in history! Uncle Ben, if he's smart, will let us weather a short , mild, recession and the global economy will recover and continue to grow. The market will correct, recover, and move forward. Other wise cutting rates extensively will kill the $USD, and milk and gas will be $10 a gallon. Then everyone can bitch about declining consumer spending and hyper-inflation. At ant rate I wouldn't be long equities here. You want good valuations...wait till S&P 1350 level.