Reasons for trading difficulties....

[murray t turtle]

QQQ was born 20 years ago at $50, currently $170. Even with dividend reinvest, that is no where near 13%.
It is more like 6.5% a year and you had to take a 85% drawdown to earn it.
Even Gold has outperformed QQQ over the last 20 years.

But the real question is what rate of return do you think you are going to get with QQQ over the next 20 years and what kinds of drawdowns do you expect?

%%
HUH??
QQQ annual return is more like 17%, more with small dividend. Sure has draW doWns of >80%; but that was bear of 2000, 2001, 2002[10 year=+19.29%]Gold almost never outperforms SPY,or QQQ ;some times it does. NOT a predicition.

HOWEVER QQQ 3 year, 5 year or 1 year can vary greatly; [2008 -41% ouch-oops] , [2009 =+54%][Most measure total return as an average, not buying ALL on day one/inception + holding to today LOL.Its much more than that if you buy @ bottom of bear.Thanks for comments.

 

[southall]

%%
HUH??
QQQ annual return is more like 17%, more with small dividend. Sure has draW doWns of >80%; but that was bear of 2000, 2001, 2002[10 year=+19.29%]Gold almost never outperforms SPY,or QQQ ;some times it does. NOT a predicition.

QQQ has returned about 7%+divis p/a since inception in 1999, 20 years ago.
Had 80% drawdown around 2001. And a circa 50% drawdown in 2008.
Will for sure have another 50% drawdown at some point in our life times, and probably sooner rather than later ie. when next recession happens.
So enjoy your 7% returns with 50%+ drawdowns going forward.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

QQQ has returned about 7%+divis p/a since inception in 1999, 20 years ago.
Had 80% drawdown around 2001. And a circa 50% drawdown in 2008.
Will for sure have another 50% drawdown at some point in our life times, and probably sooner rather than later ie. when next recession happens.
So enjoy your 7% returns with 50%+ drawdowns going forward.

Southhall,

Repeat the same analysis for SP500 index?

 

[southall]

Southhall,

Repeat the same analysis for SP500 index?

Since its 1993 inception SPY has returned about 7.5% p/a + dividends. I think the dividends average about 2%.

But starting from the QQQ inception date (early 1999). SPY has returned 5% + dividends.

SPY drawdowns have been around 50% on two occasions.

So you get a bit better % p/a with QQQ over the long run, but you should also expect bigger drawdowns as well.

 

[smallfil]

QQQ has returned about 7%+divis p/a since inception in 1999, 20 years ago.
Had 80% drawdown around 2001. And a circa 50% drawdown in 2008.
Will for sure have another 50% drawdown at some point in our life times, and probably sooner rather than later ie. when next recession happens.
So enjoy your 7% returns with 50%+ drawdowns going forward.

QQQ is not such a bad trade vehicle. On 02/11/19 closed at $168.40, on 03/13/19 closed at $177.01 or a gain of 5.11% for about 1 month holding period for the QQQ itself. I trade stock options so, bought the March 15 2019 $167.00 Call option on QQQ on 02/11/19 for $531.00, sold it 03/13/19 for $1,040.00. I had just one contract on this trade. Still, 95.86% for one month holding. Just wanted to show that huge returns are possible on the QQQ. I expect to be trading the QQQ over and over again including, on the short side with put options when the trend is down. Would be silly to pass on trading the QQQ when the potential for huge profits are there! I do not expect to win each and every trade but, probably, will win enough substantial profits to make it worth the time to trade the QQQ.

 

[murray t turtle]

QQQ has returned about 7%+divis p/a since inception in 1999, 20 years ago.
Had 80% drawdown around 2001. And a circa 50% drawdown in 2008.
Will for sure have another 50% drawdown at some point in our life times, and probably sooner rather than later ie. when next recession happens.
So enjoy your 7% returns with 50%+ drawdowns going forward.

%%
see your points.Actually it could drawdown >> 80%; has done that before.How many buy an ETF/ETFs first day-not me LOL Actually its closer to 18% ;drawdowns are not the same as losses+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks for your drawdown warning; i study trends all the time, not just day of inception.......

 

[ironchef]

I am not coming up with these numbers from the thin air... industry stats says 1% make enough to live on... and 135-140 ish IQ is about 1/100.

I hope you are wrong or I am doomed.

 

[ironchef]

by definition zero sum games are supposed to be 'difficult'.

why bother when qqq has been returning 13% a year since the day it was born.

Yeah good point except I can't trade QQQ on the ASX from my account unfortunately, we are very limited here unless one wants to pay very high brokerage plus there are couple of other complications.
However if I could trade QQQ I would still trade the trends, am not a buy & hold advocate.

He was not asking you to trade, just "buy and hold", then the commissions would be manageable.

 

[themickey]

He was not asking you to trade, just "buy and hold", then the commissions would be manageable.

Runs against the grain, too boring, not high enough return.
Trading is mentally stimulating, the landscape is continually changing, best choice I ever made, albeit my method is tortoise compared to others with just under 30 positions entered into and 3 exits so far this year. When market reverses then will cease trading other than exiting many positions, some I will hold.

 

[ironchef]

Since its 1993 inception SPY has returned about 7.5% p/a + dividends. I think the dividends average about 2%.

But starting from the QQQ inception date (early 1999). SPY has returned 5% + dividends.

SPY drawdowns have been around 50% on two occasions.

So you get a bit better % p/a with QQQ over the long run, but you should also expect bigger drawdowns as well.

OK, let's say in the year 2000 you inherited $ from your parents. You put it all in SPY at the peak and you want to retire in 2020. Today including dividend reinvestment your outcome is actually much better than putting money in CD or Treasury bonds, provided you didn't panic and exit at the two drawdowns in 2003 and 2009:

Time is probably the most important edge we amateurs have.