Reality for an Individual Trader

[BONECRUSHER]

Actually, that Chinese Wall between various parts of IBs, such as research and trading, is pretty real. It's surprising, considering how much other shit is going on, but I guess IBs have been burned on the whole information leakage a few times.

For a smaller investor who wants to play the mosaic-like game, much of MNPI can be synthesized from talking to the management, reading the disclosures, visiting the production site etc. Also, shady things like dating the secretaries that bigger funds would not touch with a six foot poll.

I remember hearing quite frequently about big firms announcing downgrades on stocks, but immediately starting accumulating positions on the dip and upgrades to distribute shares...this was over 10 years ago. This isn't the case anymore?

 

[jtrader33]

I have no idea who he is, but yes, if you can figure stuff to do in micro-cap stocks/debt (not TA day-trading stuff, but real stuff - LS, maybe something CSA-like etc), there is probably enough to support a healthy lifestyle.

LS = long/short? CSA = credit support annex??

 

[Buy1Sell2]

This is now nicknamed "The Conspiracy Theorist Thread". There is a lot of misinformation being disseminated here. The fact remains that pro traders are not receiving their news before you do. ===And even if they were , it really doesn't matter. You don't need news feeds to be wildy successful and that's the larger point here. Too much focus is being directed on "poor me".

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I am interested in trading commodity futures, but I question whether it is realistic for an individual investor to compete with pro traders who have decades of experience. I have a genuine interest in this investment vehicle and not interested in a get rich quick scheme. I am willing to put in the time and hard work to educate myself. However, I don't want to be naive when it comes to thinking I or anyone who hasn't worked as a professional trader on the inside can be profitable in the long run.

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Back to the original question from the OP. I stand with my earlier statement.-------
"Initially no. You will lose money and perhaps a lot of it, but this is tuition and if you work on controlling risk and reap full benefits, you will eventually be a very successful trader."

 

[sle]

LS = long/short? CSA = credit support annex??

Capital structure arbitrage

 

[BONECRUSHER]

This is now nicknamed "The Conspiracy Theorist Thread". There is a lot of misinformation being disseminated here. The fact remains that pro traders are not receiving their news before you do. ===And even if they were , it really doesn't matter. You don't need news feeds to be wildy successful and that's the larger point here. Too much focus is being directed on "poor me".

I don't think anybody is saying "poor me", I think we just want to make sure we're aware of the "games" being played in the markets...that's all. I think comagnum, sle, surfer, and myself are doing just fine.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

Back to the original question from the OP. I stand with my earlier statement.-------
"Initially no. You will lose money and perhaps a lot of it, but this is tuition and if you work on controlling risk and reap full benefits, you will eventually be a very successful trader."

This I agree with!

 

[donnap]

I remember hearing quite frequently about big firms announcing downgrades on stocks, but immediately starting accumulating positions on the dip and upgrades to distribute shares...this was over 10 years ago.

TASR 2003-2004. Bullshit hype by the firms and the Co. itself = Insane price action.

 

[Autospreader]

I am interested in trading commodity futures, but I question whether it is realistic for an individual investor to compete with pro traders who have decades of experience. I have a genuine interest in this investment vehicle and not interested in a get rich quick scheme. I am willing to put in the time and hard work to educate myself. However, I don't want to be naive when it comes to thinking I or anyone who hasn't worked as a professional trader on the inside can be profitable in the long run.

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Find the one commodity that you can grasp some of the fundamentals of. Then research that commodity and gets basic understanding of what drives that market. Read the logical trader by mark fisher and use that knowledge along with your fundamental knowledge to trade that market

 

[Xela]

I think Surf is actually right that institutional traders, in this context, have the advantage of better information. With commodity futures, the information provided by their highly qualified and experienced research analysts is something not fully available to independent/retail traders, and individual commodities are more news/information-driven than many tradable instruments. To an experienced industrial economist, that may not be so significant, but they're a small minority of traders.

That's not necessarily to say that you can't make a living without it, though: undeniably there are some independents making their full-time livings from trading commodity futures. (And equally undeniably, some of them are ex-institutional traders.)

I do trade CL a little, but for myself, I find index futures (and even some currency futures) generally quite a bit easier and more approachable to the an independent trader - and I wouldn't be at all surprised if many others feel the same way.

There is a lot of misinformation being disseminated here.

That's probably true, but was there ever a thread here (of this kind of length) of which that wasn't so?

Casting no aspersions, but when I see forum threads like the first 15 pages of this one, I can't help wondering what proportion of the respondants are actually retail-trading commodity futures on a daily basis.