Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.
- Thread starter Whisky
- Start date
Just curious. How do you determine how many cars to use for each trade?
Today is Happy Friday and this thread is now 1 week old. (Time flies when you are having fun. eh?).
To celebrate, we'll discuss, as deeply as our contributors allow:
1-The posts by Mike, along with the possible different leverage levels. (Related to Optimal F, etc, etc, etc). We can use a simplification of his claim of a 40% W and 4-1 payoff method as an example to simulate several levels of leverage and compare their respective results in a graph.
I propose that the poster most qualified to do this is DOUCHE2, but he'll probably not do it (which brings us to point 3 below, the fun part of friday). So that leaves us with our second and third choices to simulate these results: CFD and Mike himself, or any other volunteers that beat them up to the task.
I hope we can get some simulated equity curves for F/4, F/3, F/2, F/1.5 and F. We'll also post one of 1.5 F once to see what is like blowing up an account by overleveraging (With a winning method!).
As we don't really know what Mike results are, only he can post a proper simulation of his method results, but for the sake of this discussion we'll discuss a method that hits right 40% of the time and when it hits it wins 4 times what it loses when it fails 60% of the time. Let's see who can post first a 500 trade simulation of that at the F levels posted above in equity run graphical form.
2-We'll also wait eagerly for whoisjohngalt to further discuss his market following algo, and/or other brilliant mind inputs into this fascinating approach of tossing the coin by following price/time/volume/DOM/whatever action.
3-Now for the fun part:
We will take a psychological-scatological profile of the main offenders in this thread, that have self-selected themselves to play a game they can't win by insulting/initiating an attack on the MOD (me), in a no-holds-barred thread and then running around like headless chickens trying to get me banned (so that they will not be subject to public humiliation, i.e. Taking a big loss instead of taking a small ego loss i.e.: apologizing).
We'll discuss these LOSERS psychological profiles, and compare to what they routinely do in the market to themselves (and others, including family, friends, etc.).
The "volunteers" and brief profiles are:
a-CaptainObvious: A porn arcade jizz moper.
b-OracleWizard777: A coin up the ass biotech "investor" and futures system peddler.
c-AyeYo: A mentally challenged DOUCHE that believes he is entitled to whatever he asks for, and abuses people for not giving him what he can get for himself.
d-Trader666: Aka DOUCHE2 that believes that whatever he writes is the truth and although an improved version of the DOUCHE(as he can prove certain things to himself) can't admit wrongdoing or apologize like a man.
e-The multiple alias sniper psychopath poster that is obssessed with Jack Hershey, Raskolnikov, Snow photos, and GTFO.
We'll do this fun psychological analysis, and see if we can spot these personalities in the market.
If any other volunteers want to self-select themselves for psychological torture we'll try to process them on the spot next friday (that is if this thread is still alive next friday. Another coin-toss as it seems).
If, after this fun exercise, anybody still believes I'm irritating, annoying, harsh, abusive, etc, etc, etc. Then I suggest they try the ES for size.
As usual:
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
For now, I'm going to post a brag photo (that is self-evident):
To celebrate, we'll discuss, as deeply as our contributors allow:
1-The posts by Mike, along with the possible different leverage levels. (Related to Optimal F, etc, etc, etc). We can use a simplification of his claim of a 40% W and 4-1 payoff method as an example to simulate several levels of leverage and compare their respective results in a graph.
I propose that the poster most qualified to do this is DOUCHE2, but he'll probably not do it (which brings us to point 3 below, the fun part of friday). So that leaves us with our second and third choices to simulate these results: CFD and Mike himself, or any other volunteers that beat them up to the task.
I hope we can get some simulated equity curves for F/4, F/3, F/2, F/1.5 and F. We'll also post one of 1.5 F once to see what is like blowing up an account by overleveraging (With a winning method!).
As we don't really know what Mike results are, only he can post a proper simulation of his method results, but for the sake of this discussion we'll discuss a method that hits right 40% of the time and when it hits it wins 4 times what it loses when it fails 60% of the time. Let's see who can post first a 500 trade simulation of that at the F levels posted above in equity run graphical form.
2-We'll also wait eagerly for whoisjohngalt to further discuss his market following algo, and/or other brilliant mind inputs into this fascinating approach of tossing the coin by following price/time/volume/DOM/whatever action.
3-Now for the fun part:
We will take a psychological-scatological profile of the main offenders in this thread, that have self-selected themselves to play a game they can't win by insulting/initiating an attack on the MOD (me), in a no-holds-barred thread and then running around like headless chickens trying to get me banned (so that they will not be subject to public humiliation, i.e. Taking a big loss instead of taking a small ego loss i.e.: apologizing).
We'll discuss these LOSERS psychological profiles, and compare to what they routinely do in the market to themselves (and others, including family, friends, etc.).
The "volunteers" and brief profiles are:
a-CaptainObvious: A porn arcade jizz moper.
b-OracleWizard777: A coin up the ass biotech "investor" and futures system peddler.
c-AyeYo: A mentally challenged DOUCHE that believes he is entitled to whatever he asks for, and abuses people for not giving him what he can get for himself.
d-Trader666: Aka DOUCHE2 that believes that whatever he writes is the truth and although an improved version of the DOUCHE(as he can prove certain things to himself) can't admit wrongdoing or apologize like a man.
e-The multiple alias sniper psychopath poster that is obssessed with Jack Hershey, Raskolnikov, Snow photos, and GTFO.
We'll do this fun psychological analysis, and see if we can spot these personalities in the market.
If any other volunteers want to self-select themselves for psychological torture we'll try to process them on the spot next friday (that is if this thread is still alive next friday. Another coin-toss as it seems).
If, after this fun exercise, anybody still believes I'm irritating, annoying, harsh, abusive, etc, etc, etc. Then I suggest they try the ES for size.
As usual:
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
For now, I'm going to post a brag photo (that is self-evident):
this thread which is a very interesting essay has been totally wrecked by the resident troll community which is a shame.
i take my hat off to you for keeping it up at expense of time and patience.
He is simply (95% sure of this) another gifted hacker-programmer type that can't hack trading at all and as his job has been outsourced to China and India for $4.99 an hour, he has a lot of spare time that he employs in ET and masturbating in several porn sites (probably gay sites, but that is a 50-50 coin toss), while he waits for his burger flipping schedule that allows him to survive.
So, not an idiot by any measure, except his behavior. A highly intelligent psychopath by most standard measures, most likely.
A freak of nature, and probably the most intelligent of the self-selected lot.
Alright, the bulk of my trading is done for today so I can screw around a bit. 
Attached please find one of my currently running index/bonds/currency models. Its an intraday swing model. The current sim. run shows all trades since 97' for the ES only. As you can see, win rate is <40% and the W:L is about 4-1. It does a bit better win-rate wise on the bonds, but in general its at 40% across the board. Also, I beat the win rate slightly in real life as I often protect profits towards the end of the day.
What shall we do next?
Mike
PS If I get some decent suggestions, I'll implement the good ideas and trade em' live with a real account for all to see if there is any interest. Say we start the account @ 5k so if the ideas suck I won't be out too much cash.
Attached please find one of my currently running index/bonds/currency models. Its an intraday swing model. The current sim. run shows all trades since 97' for the ES only. As you can see, win rate is <40% and the W:L is about 4-1. It does a bit better win-rate wise on the bonds, but in general its at 40% across the board. Also, I beat the win rate slightly in real life as I often protect profits towards the end of the day.
What shall we do next?
Mike
PS If I get some decent suggestions, I'll implement the good ideas and trade em' live with a real account for all to see if there is any interest. Say we start the account @ 5k so if the ideas suck I won't be out too much cash.
You missed by a long shot.
The history of his arrival, his search and his creative period and finally his present development is text book. Trader zones is similar. Trader666 is not on a par with either. T666 is just not an orderly person and represents, moreso, the shortcut seeker.
Intelligent people do not get caught in traps, usually. They usually self assess and work their way out of presumed dilemmas by changing the context to a solvable problem. They do work arounds, in other words.
These three people are trapped. Were they more intelligent, they would exhibit a transitional characterisitc that would show growth in their inference. That is they would look at the same thing and not be locked into a loop that is so focussed that they only repeat themselves.
A very serious focal point for T28 is his remorse relative to one thing and how it plays out over and over. He "announces" his new handle in only one place. That place represents two things: his initial rejection of input while trying to shortcut the creative process and his rejection of iterative refinement as a way to mature (see curriculum and bootcamp concept).
When Stephen tried to "buy" the underlying of our approach, he profered his bank information to a local in Tucson. All who had the info refrained from posting it. For local color and contrast, Timmay did make it to Tucson (expenses paid) and he bumped my scheduled presentation as well.
Here is the YM from the open today where a similar platform is in use. The pattern may be seen; this time on a sub fractal of the BBT fractal. It was delightful to fall beneath your radar once again. The ......Galt chart was interesting indeed. Probably should add a compounding column and curve for the fun of it. Putting in a column for a ratio comparing the market's offer to the net would be nice too. It was nice to see the upper limit of cars occasionally exceeded as well.