Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

[Mike805]

Quote from Whisky:

I like your emotion-liquidity hunting. Are there other parts of the day when this herding phenomenon presents itself?.

My gut feeling is that those moments offer good coin tossing potential for profits. I can't prove it, but maybe you can?

Yeah, there is one that is fairly well known, but, its not necessarily based on anything emotional; the 10am PST reversal is one given some simple conditions. I suspect this one is due to traders getting trapped or something like that... I think Stocks and Commodities mag did a test on it 6 months or so ago and they probably explain it better. If you modify it slightly, its tradeable, but, you'll have some long DD's. News events and FOMC are usually good times too.

What I personally look for is anything that happens too fast. Stocks/Futures that rise to quickly or fall too quickly and I toss my coin at those points so to speak. My edge is about 52% across all my systems in real life and I average about 5k-7k trades a year - my most profitable system is at 40% hit rate with 4-1 payoff. Its done very well on the 30 year and the ES this year. Lately I've been moving towards lower hit rate systems as I find them more fun to trade; a homerun versus a law of large numbers kind of thing.

FYI, the system I posted can actually be modified to produce a decent edge (not good enough for my tastes, hence my posting it here), but, its a good starting point for a newb maybe. Always KISS...

IMO coin tossing at any price&time based extreme will be profitble... I don't feel the need to prove it, but, lets just say I do quite well with a 52% win rate

 

[Trader666]

P.S. I think your obsession with and use of this word, especially as a mod, makes YOU "the DOUCHE."

Quote from Whisky:

That was probably the DOUCHE iirc. You can ask the DOUCHE.

The DOUCHE is, after all, our resident expert in extremely long term trading, and buy and hold.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from Mike805:

Yeah, there is one that is fairly well known, but, its not necessarily based on anything emotional; the 10am PST reversal is one given some simple conditions. I suspect this one is due to traders getting trapped or something like that... I think Stocks and Commodities mag did a test on it 6 months or so ago and they probably explain it better. If you modify it slightly, its tradeable, but, you'll have some long DD's. News events and FOMC are usually good times too.

What I personally look for is anything that happens too fast. Stocks/Futures that rise to quickly or fall too quickly and I toss my coin at those points so to speak. My edge is about 52% across all my systems in real life and I average about 5k-7k trades a year - my most profitable system is at 40% hit rate with 4-1 payoff. Its done very well on the 30 year and the ES this year. Lately I've been moving towards lower hit rate systems as I find them more fun to trade; a homerun versus a law of large numbers kind of thing.

FYI, the system I posted can actually be modified to produce a decent edge (not good enough for my tastes, hence my posting it here), but, its a good starting point for a newb maybe. Always KISS...

IMO coin tossing at any price&time based extreme will be profitble... I don't feel the need to prove it, but, lets just say I do quite well with a 52% win rate

Do you mean 52-48 W:L 1:1 average (4% edge average) or 52% edge?.

Nice results and very high frequency. Congrats. I bet you do real well.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from Trader666:

P.S. I think your obsession with and use of this word, especially as a mod, makes YOU "the DOUCHE."

Quote from Whisky:

Please discuss, flame, whatever you like. All crap is allowed in this thread. No holds barred. Fire away!.

He drew first blood. I'll stop when he apologizes or whenever I want. Those are the rules: No holds barred AND I'm the MOD, so I have the edge. That's how I like it. If you think I'm irritating, then try the ES for size.

You will be called DOUCHE2 from this point on. How do you like that?. Feel free to apologize like a man instead of running to the site owner crying like a baby. I will not backoff even if they ban me.

So DOUCHE2: Are you ready to make a test changing the EXITS as it was suggested above or you prefer to not participate anymore?

 

[sosueme]

Quote from minmike:

I always regret posting in these, but here it goes.

Change the entrance. Instead of coin, if market is down on the day, buy at the close and sell at the next close. If market is up on the day sell and buy at the next close.

since Mar 25 1999 (just what I happened to pull in.) 1438.25 in profit. Better than most random.

that is scary, really scary.

sosueme

 

[Mike805]

Quote from Whisky:

Do you mean 52-48 W:L 1:1 average (4% edge average) or 52% edge?.

Nice results and very high frequency. Congrats. I bet you do real well.

Thanks. I've been trying to take the frequency down a notch since my trading costs are about 23% of gross profits... I'd like to get that down under 10% but maybe that's not realistic unless I go to a shit broker.

Net across all systems/trades is 51.94% win rate at W:L ratio = 4.150:3.757 (1.104:1). Slightly larger winners and more of em'.

 

[cfd_trader]

Quote from Whisky:

cfd: Do you have a link to post on the RNG quoted in your chart?. I would like to fire the bum tossing the coins (or promote him to CEO. We'll toss a coin for that decision.), and maybe others would like to do that as well.

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.


Other than that : actually, the Mersenne Twister RNG (which is very high quality while quite speedy) is implemented in the PHP release I'm using (5.3.0), so all I have to do to get a random number is a simple call, e.g.:

mt_rand(1,100);

to get a random number b/w 1 and 100 included.

IIRC from my previous search (until I found out that I already had it available in my programming envrnmt ^^), there's a lot of stuff on the Net readily available if you google it, including some pseudo-code and maybe even C or C++ code.

Shouldn't take more than a few mns search, really.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from cfd_trader:

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.


Other than that : actually, the Mersenne Twister RNG (which is very high quality while quite speedy) is implemented in the PHP release I'm using (5.3.0), so all I have to do to get a random number is a simple call, e.g.:

mt_rand(1,100);

to get a random number b/w 1 and 100 included.

IIRC from my previous search (until I found out that I already had it available in my programming envrnmt ^^), there's a lot of stuff on the Net readily available if you google it, including some pseudo-code and maybe even C or C++ code.

Shouldn't take more than a few mns search, really.

Wikipedia says it's not so good.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from Mike805:

Thanks. I've been trying to take the frequency down a notch since my trading costs are about 23% of gross profits... I'd like to get that down under 10% but maybe that's not realistic unless I go to a shit broker.

Net across all systems/trades is 51.94% win rate at W:L ratio = 4.150:3.757 (1.104:1). Slightly larger winners and more of em'.

Are you using some sort of position sizing algorithm in the vein of a % of Optimal F or Kelly or how do you increase your size as you win more, if you do?.

Some brokers pay you for orderflow if you use limit orders and have a lot of volume.

 

[cfd_trader]

Quote from Whisky:

Wikipedia says it's not so good.

I don't think so, matter of fact here's a couple of abstracts:

The algorithm in its native form is not suitable for cryptography (unlike Blum Blum Shub).

in trading simulation we couldn't care less about cryptography. In fact a RNG algo tweaked towards cryptography is most probably not the most efficient for our purpose (randomness vs execution speed).

For many applications, however, the Mersenne twister is quickly becoming the pseudorandom number generator of choice; for example, it is the default in R, Maple, MATLAB, and the two popular scripting languages Python[3] and Ruby[4]. Since the library is portable, freely available, and quickly generates high quality pseudorandom numbers, it is rarely a bad choice.

and finally, most importantly:

It is designed with Monte Carlo simulations and other statistical simulations in mind Researchers primarily want high quality numbers but also benefit from its speed and portability.

I'd personnally hardly call that a negative opinion...