Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

[Whisky]

Quote from Pension_Admin:

I think the coin toss strategy should work.

The hard part is figure out the ATR and where to place the stop loss. In order for this to work, expected reward needs to exceed expected risk at all time, which is what make it tough, since most trader would force a good reward/risk ratio and made the stop loss too tight.

There should also be a predefined place to exit half of your trade if it is losing, which should help with the reward/risk.

From a statistical point of view, it should work.

PA

This is the second or third suggestion about modifying the EXITS to gain an edge.

Anybody up to the actual objective task?.

The fourth conclusion is that one needs not wait a full day to toss a coin, and one could actually toss the coin in any shorter or longer timeframe (down to seconds or up to decades or centuries. The DOUCHE even suggested going long in 1875 and hold), thereby increasing or decreasing the frequency of opportunity, that is...if one can gain an edge over commissions and slippage.

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from jack hershey:

Those of us who use these methods are not just laughing at you;

See if your daughter can post the above annotations.

I'm very happy that there is more than one person laughing at all of this on a consistent basis. (I'll take your word for it).

My daughter was busy yesterday after your post was made. I'll try to coerce her to do "this fun painting" this afternoon, but she gets bored very quickly, and I am a very poor translator.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from PointOne:

Seykota flat out refuses to countenance that money can be made consistently on short timeframes. Daytrading is an addiction according to him which only serves to fill a void in emotionally crippled traders' lives. Or something. Everyone gets what they want.

Maybe Seykota's size has become too big for the 5 minute chart and what he says is true for him, trading in short timeframes is a waste of time for him, like Warren Buffett playing penny-ante poker?.

Maybe not, and he is just an old fart that made money once upon a time and now likes to play the banjo.

Plenty of examples around of people that made millions, even hundreds of millions, only to lose it all after their edge vanished and they insisted with their non-edge.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from PointOne:


===
On topic:
Using most recent 2 bar tape to enter, HOLD and fan the rtl unless the rtl is broken with increasing volume at which point reverse and repeat with the new rtl. There will be losing segments but it will have positive expectancy over a reasonable timeframe. Left as an exercise for the reader. Iterative refinement: reverse before the rtl breakout based on price-volume formation.

This is objectively testable. Maybe even codable. Anyone up to the task to prove that it is profitable?. Maybe the Trader that bought 666 and is skilled with Montecarlo?.

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from Mike805:

Great catch! Here is the edited code with proper sizing code.

Thanks Random.

Mike

I like your emotion-liquidity hunting. Are there other parts of the day when this herding phenomenon presents itself?.

My gut feeling is that those moments offer good coin tossing potential for profits. I can't prove it, but maybe you can?

 

[Whisky]

Today I want to introduce an amazing psychological phenomenon that repeats consistently. Perhaps someone will find a way to exploit it for profit, or perhaps not.

Here it goes:

Have you noticed that on days that have at least one large directional move, the number of people claiming or bragging that they caught such move, (or that they pyramided into it, or that they "doubled up" or that they broke their rules on their stop (on the previous wiggle before the big move), or that they mortgaged their grandmother's castle to buy options in the direction of the move, etc, etc, etc, etc ad infinitum) goes up exponentially (in this and other forums) over the so-so days that chop around?.

Obviously a large amount of these claims are plain lies (since only a minority wins this tough negative-sum game), and beg the question: Would the move actually occur if all these pathological liars (that routinely lie to themselves and others) had an ACTUAL position in the direction of their claims?.

Or is it more likely that they were caught in the wrong side of the move, or at least they were left empty handed?.

Why do they keep doing this repetitive behaviour?. Do they seek acceptance from themselves and others?. Are they in the market to make money or to gain friends and family to their pathetic cause?.

Or is there a more fundamental force at work that keeps repeating itself?.

I'll throw it out there for discussion, and possible exploitation.

Remember that:

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.

 

[sosueme]

Quote from aspinate@optusn:

COME ON BITCH, YOU WORK FOR ME, CLEAN THIS SHIT UP

YOU DON'T TRADE SO YOU MAY AS WELL BE MY JANITOR

and you dont pay so he cannot be your janitor.

were you dropped on your head as a baby.

sosueme

 

[sosueme]

Quote from Whisky:



Or is it more likely that they were caught in the wrong side of the move, or at least they were left empty handed?.

none of the above.

At best they are on a SIM, but most likely they do nothing at all and therefore they avoid facing the brutal reality of either being right or wrong.

The tradgedy of this game is there are no shadows within which to hide and no one to blame but our self.

What a bitch

sosueme

 

[Trader666]

Barring a major unforeseen cosmic event, the sun's expected to rise almost 2 trillion times before it becomes a red giant and engulfs earth. So for practical purposes, YES, you would be right 50% of the time. What's your point?

Quote from Whisky:

I can toss a coin to predict whether the sun will rise tomorrow. The toss results will even out, does that automatically mean I'm going to be right 50% of the time?

 

[Whisky]

Quote from sosueme:

none of the above.

At best they are on a SIM, but most likely they do nothing at all and therefore they avoid facing the brutal reality of either being right or wrong.

The tradgedy of this game is there are no shadows within which to hide and no one to blame but our self.

What a bitch

sosueme

So you say that they were left empty handed and bragging about catching, doubling up, etc, etc?.

That would make sense, since the ones that caught the wrong side of the move would be too depressed to brag.

Would you agree?.