Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

[Whisky]

Quote from sosueme:

100% is a big ask.
What would you consider an achievable win ratio to be in order to enter the ES market.
Over time no doubt this figure could be improved upon.

And while we are at it, what win/loss ratio would you consider in order to enter the ES market.
It goes without saying that these two ratios are inseparable.

sosueme

I have heard of people hitting right 70% of the time and making 2:1 and 3:1 on the payoffs.

I also know of one that hits right 15-20 in a row with different payoffs ranking from breakeven up to 20:1 or more sometimes.

I haven't checked their account statements to be sure, but I tend to believe them due to their lifestyle and integrity in the past.

Gifted individuals, to be sure.

I'd say that 50-50 and 2:1 or a combination yielding about the same edge before commissions would be comfortable for me.

 

[sosueme]

Quote from Whisky:

I have heard of people hitting right 70% of the time and making 2:1 and 3:1 on the payoffs.

I also know of one that hits right 15-20 in a row with different payoffs ranking from breakeven up to 20:1 or more sometimes.

I haven't checked their account statements to be sure, but I tend to believe them due to their lifestyle and integrity in the past.

Gifted individuals, to be sure.

I'd say that 50-50 and 2:1 or a combination yielding about the same edge before commissions would be comfortable for me.

Fancy that.

I cannot imagine anyone hoisting figures like that on the ET crowd. They are too shrewd to accept anything other than audited accounts.

It seems to me that scaling in/out and sideways along with money management (half in/half out) etc etc is the consensus of the crowd here.
Wish I was clever enough to understand it all.

sosueme

 

[Whisky]

Quote from sosueme:

Fancy that.

I cannot imagine anyone hoisting figures like that on the ET crowd. They are too shrewd to accept anything other than audited accounts.

It seems to me that scaling in/out and sideways along with money management (half in/half out) etc etc is the consensus of the crowd here.
Wish I was clever enough to understand it all.

sosueme

I'm not saying that I'm doing 50-50 2:1 or anywhere near at the moment. Just to clarify.

 

[AyeYo]

Quote from Trader666:

AyeYo, let me take a stab at explaining this... these things are not always intuitive so I've verified the numbers for each case with MCS.

I looked at 3 cases and assumed NO COMMISSIONS OR SLIPPAGE to keep it simple:

1) The market is so biased to the long side that it goes up every day by one point.
Net profit/loss of coin toss method: zero.
Why? Because you win one point 50% of the time and lose one point 50% of the time.

2) The market randomly goes up/down 50% the time, but it's so biased to the long side that each up day is +2 points and each down day is -1 point.
Net profit/loss of coin toss method: zero.
Why? On up days, you win/lose 50% of the time, so your 2 point wins cancel out your 2 point losses. On down days, you win/lose 50% of the time, so your 1 point wins cancel out your 1 point losses.

3) Cases inbetween, like the market is up 90% of the time AND makes 2 points on each up day, but only loses 1 point on the 10% of down days.
Net profit/loss of coin toss method: zero.
Why? On up days, you still win/lose 50% of the time (even though 90% of the days are up), so your 2 point wins cancel out your 2 point losses. On down days, same logic applies.

Makes perfect sense. If only Wiskey was intelligent enough/not such a douche he could have explained that 47 pages ago.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from AyeYo:

Makes perfect sense. If only Wiskey was intelligent enough/not such a D O U C H E he could have explained that 47 pages ago.

10-20-09 05:18 PM

Quote from AyeYo:

Explain it. What law of nature says it HAS to even out? The heads/tails of a fair coin will eventually even out. Where's the statistical rule that says your given win/loss AMOUNTS have to also even out?

I can toss a coin to predict whether the sun will rise tomorrow. The toss results will even out, does that automatically mean I'm going to be right 50% of the time?



It doesn't have to even out. Over a large number of samples the expectation converges to a loss equal to commissions and slippage. If you don't understand the mathematical proof, I can suggest you make a Montecarlo test and see it converge in front of your eyes.

Every outcome is 50-50 that's all the coin does. The payoff is positive or negative whatever amount. The expectation is 0. And then you substract commissions and slippage.

Maybe someone else can explain it better?.

 

[Whisky]

Coin toss came out TAILS. Short.

 

[AyeYo]

Quote from Whisky:

Maybe someone else can explain it better?.

Most ironic part of the quote.

 

[Whisky]

Quote from AyeYo:

Most ironic part of the quote.

I liked D O U C H E better.

 

[MAESTRO]

Just came back from the hospital and decided to check out the old ET. I haven't been around for a half year or more. When I found this post I realized that nothing has changed at ALL! The old ET is still debating the coin tossing games in a childish manner. I happened to be a fan of the "Random Walk/ Coin Tossing” methods of trading and always encourage people to look at them closely. I can assure you that there is a very reliable and a very profitable method of trading the ES using the Coin Tossing Game. I use it every day. We are running robots based on this algorithm. The challenge, of course, is to figure it out. I did.

MAESTRO

 

[dtrader98]

Maestro!

Finally, a sound thinker has arrived. Hope you are doing well, and the board has sorely missed your sage insights! Look forward to hearing more from you and glad to hear you are doing well.