Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

Exactly. So there's nothing break-even about your coin toss system. I could buy/sell based on what shade of brown my morning shit is - I'd have just as good of a chance to win.

Exactly. But that would not bring an extra tic over the original method and rules. Would it?.

AyeYo · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from bordaline:

Bingo.. and maybe he can't read a chart like this

LOL

So easy a caveman could do it. Market is random my ass.

AyeYo · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from Whisky:

Exactly. But that would not bring an extra tic over the original method and rules. Would it?.

I don't really care about bringing an extra tick to a method which has an unproven return to begin with. Prove break-even and then we can worry about making it better.

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

LOL

So easy a caveman could do it. Market is random my ass.

ahhh. Finally a brag. Would you care to post proof that it is easy for a caveman or for you?.

euclid · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

That makes far more sense that how he stated it, but let me explain how I'm looking at it.

The market is biased long, purely from a historical perspective. Also, as stated by someone else, even if the market didn't trend up over time, the probability of it doubling is, in the real world, infinitely higher than the probability of it going to zero. So, again, the market is biased long. The probabilities are NOT normally distributed.

So what does that leave us with? That leaves us trying to toss a coin to make a red/black call on a roulette wheel that's biased towards black. It just doesn't work over time.

So, are you saying that the heads=long, tails=short strategy has a negative expectancy? If that were true, we could simply reverse the rule to get a positive expectancy!

Suppose we reduce this to a really simple level for you. Imagine there is only one possible outcome i.e. the market goes up 1 point every day. Half the time we go long and make 1pt and half the time we go short and lose 1pt. On average we break even. You see how the positive bias makes no difference? Once you have figured that one out. You can consider what happens if there are two possible outcomes. Then you can move on to any number of outcomes following any distribution or pattern. Result always averages breakeven. [provided the chance of your going bust during the coin tossing lifetime of the average bum is insignificant and provided that there is zero correlation between the coin tossing bum and the market]

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

I don't really care about bringing an extra tick to a method which has an unproven return to begin with. Prove break-even and then we can worry about making it better.

Again?. I was hoping for more intelligent discourse than plain repetition.

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from bordaline:

The charts speak for themselves, that's a 1 and 2 min chart of this morning.. I put an MA on there to highlight the pullbacks but lets face it a fucking toddler could do it

drivel chart

Really?. Can you prove it to yourself and others?.

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from bordaline:

If they've got eyes and a couple of nuerons firing they can prove it for themselves.. jesus you don't know what you're doing do you

Is that a yes o no to my question:

Can you prove it to yourself and others?.

I would guess not, since you have been extremely busy in this thread to focus on trading a 1 minute chart, but feel free to prove me wrong.

jjf · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from bordaline:

Bingo.. and maybe he can't read a chart like this.. he's missed a great morning

Lovely chart bordaline but could'nt you make more money if you changed the colors and brightened things up.

"bordaline" is that a nicname your mother gave you?

Whisky · Oct 21, 2009

Quote from bordaline:

I came in after I made my money, unlike your serial posting..

You don't toss a coin on mornings like this when the market gives you free money.. it was one way traffic.. if you don't get that then you'll stay the loser you are

You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.