Quote from dcraig:
And why do you seem to think that flipping coins or generating random numbers is any sort starting point for making money from financial markets?[/B]
Quote from Whisky:
Given that a large majority (95%?) of market participants lose MORE than commissions and slippage on average PROVES that flipping coins is a wonderful starting point and very close to breakeven. Not trading is of course, better.
So...basically everything you just stated is a lie and a belief of yours. Unproven, of course.
Quote from dcraig:
No it's not a belief of mine - it's bloody common sense.
Over the fairly long term, a majority of market participants have gained through holding stocks or mutual funds or pension funds. Why? Because equity markets have exhibited a tendency to go up over the long term and those market participants identified a non random behavior by whatever means and exploited it.
There is no law of nature that says equity markets have to go up and indeed they may not over the next 10 years, but the non-random behavior has been sufficiently enduring to increase the net worth of probably the majority of market participants significantly.
Which is all a far cry from playing around with EL scripts trying to coerce them to show a profit from random entries.
Anyway to respond to the original question, why would anybody in their right mind want to enter trades on the ES randomly? Far more rational is to short weak stocks and buy strong stocks. Which begs the question of what is a strong or weak stock - an exercise for the reader not centered on randomness.
Quote from dcraig:
Far more rational is to short weak stocks and buy strong stocks. Which begs the question of what is a strong or weak stock - an exercise for the reader not centered on randomness.
Quote from dcraig:
If one wants to make money, one needs to get on with the task of understanding the non-random aspects of markets and stop obsessing about randomness.
Quote from Badoit:
Christ, you could even adjust your stop and limit for the lognormal properties of equity markets and test the null hypothesis that you should only lose commissions.
it is the LEAVING IT ALONE where most people fall over.
Quote from Whisky:
Common sense does not seem to be very common, after all, a large majority insist on buying tops and selling bottoms, and performing all sort of other self-injuries. I know I did for a long time.
I could not beat a random coin for years, and it is still very hard for me to beat it. In fact I still don't know if I'm beating it most of the time.
Quote from dcraig:
Here is the sort of thing I mean, illustrated in the attached chart which is an unweighted index of 13 stocks from my watchlist of shorts selected a week ago.
When the broad market is overbought(ish) you have to ask yourself where are these stocks going to go when the broad market has a bad day? They have fallen off the edge.
This is another type of analysis altogether from trying to beat random on the ES. It's kind of like constructing a synthetic instrument that's more to your liking than the ES.
Quote from Badoit:
oh for fucks sake... your
"You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules. "
responses are making you look like an idiot and interrupting what could be a perfecly intellignet discussion.
I don't need to prove this because you will do a perfectly good job for me.
Don't you have anything else to say?
Quote from Whisky:
Nice start. Now you'll have to prove to yourself and others that you can actually make more than commissions and slippage trading whatever that chart is telling you to do. I'm all ears waiting for your objective entry, exit, and sizing rules.