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Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.
- Thread starter Whisky
- Start date
Quote from Badoit:
I think you are overpricing your contribution. You introduced a coin tossing problem with transaction costs, hardly cutting edge stuff.
Tell that to the 95% of people reading this thread.
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
If you can't breakeven. How the hell do you expect to eventually win?.
Quote from Badoit:
You said the method could be improved. Prove it.
Mike and mag have offered some anecdotal back testing proofs. Some others have suggested ways to improve it.
One way YOU can improve inmediately YOUR results is to stop trading. (95% chance of improvement, at least).
Now be truthful: How much would you have improved your results by using the method (or not trading) over the last 12 months?. Before answering you must know that you will be required to offer proof unless your statements are self-evident.
Since I only claim to give coins to a coin-tossing bum, and anybody that has access to coins can do that, I don't need to prove it.
Other than "tossing a coin will only cost you commissions", you don't really have anything else useful or interesting to say.
My suggestion is that by using similar management rules, by following inter market themes and reading the financial and economic news, it is possible to ascertain what the appetite for risk is likely to be in the market, and you can then position yourself accordingly. At the end of the day, fundamentals drive markets - ignore them at your peril, IMO.
Thats it. Even if I do say so myself, it's a fucking good suggestion.
My suggestion is that by using similar management rules, by following inter market themes and reading the financial and economic news, it is possible to ascertain what the appetite for risk is likely to be in the market, and you can then position yourself accordingly. At the end of the day, fundamentals drive markets - ignore them at your peril, IMO.
Thats it. Even if I do say so myself, it's a fucking good suggestion.
Quote from Badoit:
Other than "tossing a coin will only cost you commissions", you don't really have anything else useful or interesting to say.
My suggestion is that by using similar management rules, by following inter market themes and reading the financial and economic news, it is possible to ascertain what the appetite for risk is likely to be in the market, and you can then position yourself accordingly. At the end of the day, fundamentals drive markets - ignore them at your peril, IMO.
Thats it. Even if I do say so myself, it's a fucking good suggestion.
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
To be fair, it hasn't been proven that 95% of traders lose, and even if so, why they lose. It could be lack of edge, lack of discipline, or lack of money management. It's not neccesarily that 95% of traders trade systems that don't work. In fact I'd be willing to bet (without proof of course) that more than half of traders fail because of improper risk management.Quote from Whisky:
So... I told you already how to beat 95% of traders in the world, including probably (95% odds) your own current method, and now you are angry at me for not showing you how to beat the other 5%?.
That said, I'm enjoying this thread and think the OP is doing ET a service by showing how one should go about creating a trading system.
Quote from Whisky:
You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.
Why?
And why do you seem to think that flipping coins or generating random numbers is any sort starting point for making money from financial markets? Does it aid understanding? Can't see how.
Do scientists studying physical phenomena start with randomness? I don't think so. They may use statistical tests to quantify the uncertainty in results but that is another matter entirely.
If one wants to make money, one needs to get on with the task of understanding the non-random aspects of markets and stop obsessing about randomness.
Van Tharpe should be held to account for some of this nonsense.
Quote from dcraig:
Why?
And why do you seem to think that flipping coins or generating random numbers is any sort starting point for making money from financial markets? Does it aid understanding? Can't see how.
Do scientists studying physical phenomena start with randomness? I don't think so. They may use statistical tests to quantify the uncertainty in results but that is another matter entirely.
If one wants to make money, one needs to get on with the task of understanding the non-random aspects of markets and stop obsessing about randomness.
Van Tharpe should be held to account for some of this nonsense.
Given that a large majority (95%?) of market participants lose MORE than commissions and slippage on average PROVES that flipping coins is a wonderful starting point and very close to breakeven. Not trading is of course, better.
So...basically everything you just stated is a lie and a belief of yours. Unproven, of course.