So, how's your logical improvement going?
Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.
- Thread starter Whisky
- Start date
There was a print posted. then it was followed up with an OTR chart showing the market ooperation at that time. I posted an annotated follow up. It shows that there are some partial fills on turns where the corresponding print is coordinated with a OTR profile type chart. The chart is annotated to show the troughs and peaks in terms of residence time on each of the OTR elements. the original query was: How long is a turn from first opportunity to last opportunity. This was shown thoroughly. The trading day was 02OCT09 for the first 30 minutes of the open beginning 41 seconds into the open.
As you can see the pattern is repeated all the way down to the minimum spread and market 's finaest granularity.
This is a not shit situation for you people. If you can't see how it works and why it works, that is just the way it goes for individuals whose minds are in such a state.
We have worked in ET for over five years supporting learners. 2 million hits a year was the result. Now people are working on at least 25 exchanges.
People who reject this stuff out of hand have reasons. they are making choices that are theirs to own as the years go by.
These detractors are not controlled by moderators. This thread is a moderator originated thread. In the next five years ET will be better prepared and capable of allowing people to learn both technically and intellectually. Thats the way trading improvements come down the line.
I use these guys to keep my posts in front of potential traders. their constant detractions keep my posts at the top of the lists in forums and on the most recent post list. There is NO ONE else on ET that has such OCD support. It is the funniest happening on the web, bar none.
The answer is NONE because the casino would change the payout to keep the game at a negative expectancy for the player.
OP, do you think you can get off the probability for one day?
several people here have been making a small effort on a very simple level to give you an opportunity to see the markets. what seeing means is simply allowing your sensory vision and reading processing to get one small glimpse that may combine with something....anything.. inyour mind's "inference" that may allow one small PERCEPTION.
So far no go.
All of the OCD's have come out of the woodwork and are doing their Pavlovian routine at this point.
Try extremely hard to let your mind have a new small PERCEPTION.
How are you feeling about this post now, Whisky?
LOL
I created a one-trade-per-day strategy using candlestick indicators a long time ago.
The strategy played out like this:
1. Wait for a âmorning starâ or âevening starâ to occur on a daily chart of a group of stocks over $10 and with volume higher than a million.
2. Enter long for a morning star, short for an evening star right before the market close. (Before market close is important because then you capture over night price movement).
3. Close the position the following day right before close.
The strategy was profitable including slippage and commissions.
A couple of issues came up.
Interestingly, adding profit targets and stops made the system a loser.
Profit and loss swings of over 20% occurred.
Also, the strategy didn't put out too many trades per month and you had to be at your computer ready to place a trade at the end of every trading day (not too much screentime but still a commitment to a place and time every single day).
My mentor at the time told me you couldn't have a strategy that didn't have stops so I gave up on it. But it was a fun learning experience and very labor intensive considering I don't have backtesting software and instead had to learn and then program excel to backtest for me.
It showed me that all the indicators that you read about in books and on the internet aren't completely garbage. It's just that by themselves they aren't very strong (they're better than 50-50 when you put no constraints on them whatsoever). Since thatâs damn near impossible to trade, I moved on.
I bring this up because the coin-toss method doesnât involve any technical analysis.
Even a strategy of buying pullbacks to a 20 tic moving average is highly profitable under certain market conditions.
What are market conditions? Trends in price on a higher time frame than the one we are using to place trades.
Hereâs an example of a strategy where you buy dips to the 20 day moving average of the SP500 when the 20 day moving average is above the 50 day average and short pullbacks to the 20 day moving average when the 20 day moving average is below the 50 day average.
(Download excel worksheet â results on the far right)
As a few traders here pointed out, the market has had a bias to the upside since 2000. As a result the bullish strategy profited more than the bearish.
What is really interesting is that with the use of Bollinger band width (explained in the excel file), you can increase your average profit by nearly 100% with the bullish strategy.
What is even more impressive? Using the Bollinger band width with the bearish pullback strategy you go from losing an average of .75 points to a profit of 1.6 points per trade!
Market conditions (trends on a longer time frame) exist and technical analysis works.
EDIT
Saved the worksheet in the wrong format. Here's the results
Pullback Strategy (Bullish)
1. Enter long on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is above
50 day average.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 70
Profit in tics: 183.42
Average Result: 2.62
Highest Profit: 26.83
Highest Loss: -11.75
Pullback Strategy (Bearish)
1. Enter short on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is below
50 day average.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 25
Profit in tics: -19.37
Average Result: -.77
Highest Profit: 23.01
Highest Loss: -22.75
Pullback Strategy (Bullish)
Using Bollinger Band Width
1. Enter long on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is above
50 day average and bollinger width
is between 10 and 20 or greater than
40.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 45
Profit in tics: 217.93
Average Result: 4.84
Highest Profit: 35.55
Highest Loss: -19.63
Pullback Strategy (Bearish)
Using Bollinger Band Width
1. Enter short on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is below
50 day average and bollinger width
is between 10 and 20 or greater than
40.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 13
Profit in tics: 21.7
Average Result: 1.66
Highest Profit: 23.01
Highest Loss: -22.75
The strategy played out like this:
1. Wait for a âmorning starâ or âevening starâ to occur on a daily chart of a group of stocks over $10 and with volume higher than a million.
2. Enter long for a morning star, short for an evening star right before the market close. (Before market close is important because then you capture over night price movement).
3. Close the position the following day right before close.
The strategy was profitable including slippage and commissions.
A couple of issues came up.
Interestingly, adding profit targets and stops made the system a loser.
Profit and loss swings of over 20% occurred.
Also, the strategy didn't put out too many trades per month and you had to be at your computer ready to place a trade at the end of every trading day (not too much screentime but still a commitment to a place and time every single day).
My mentor at the time told me you couldn't have a strategy that didn't have stops so I gave up on it. But it was a fun learning experience and very labor intensive considering I don't have backtesting software and instead had to learn and then program excel to backtest for me.
It showed me that all the indicators that you read about in books and on the internet aren't completely garbage. It's just that by themselves they aren't very strong (they're better than 50-50 when you put no constraints on them whatsoever). Since thatâs damn near impossible to trade, I moved on.
I bring this up because the coin-toss method doesnât involve any technical analysis.
Even a strategy of buying pullbacks to a 20 tic moving average is highly profitable under certain market conditions.
What are market conditions? Trends in price on a higher time frame than the one we are using to place trades.
Hereâs an example of a strategy where you buy dips to the 20 day moving average of the SP500 when the 20 day moving average is above the 50 day average and short pullbacks to the 20 day moving average when the 20 day moving average is below the 50 day average.
(Download excel worksheet â results on the far right)
As a few traders here pointed out, the market has had a bias to the upside since 2000. As a result the bullish strategy profited more than the bearish.
What is really interesting is that with the use of Bollinger band width (explained in the excel file), you can increase your average profit by nearly 100% with the bullish strategy.
What is even more impressive? Using the Bollinger band width with the bearish pullback strategy you go from losing an average of .75 points to a profit of 1.6 points per trade!
Market conditions (trends on a longer time frame) exist and technical analysis works.
EDIT
Saved the worksheet in the wrong format. Here's the results
Pullback Strategy (Bullish)
1. Enter long on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is above
50 day average.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 70
Profit in tics: 183.42
Average Result: 2.62
Highest Profit: 26.83
Highest Loss: -11.75
Pullback Strategy (Bearish)
1. Enter short on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is below
50 day average.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 25
Profit in tics: -19.37
Average Result: -.77
Highest Profit: 23.01
Highest Loss: -22.75
Pullback Strategy (Bullish)
Using Bollinger Band Width
1. Enter long on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is above
50 day average and bollinger width
is between 10 and 20 or greater than
40.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 45
Profit in tics: 217.93
Average Result: 4.84
Highest Profit: 35.55
Highest Loss: -19.63
Pullback Strategy (Bearish)
Using Bollinger Band Width
1. Enter short on pullback to 20 day
average (within 5 tics up or down)
when 20 day average is below
50 day average and bollinger width
is between 10 and 20 or greater than
40.
2. Entry is made at the close.
3. Exit is the following days close.
Results:
# of trades: 13
Profit in tics: 21.7
Average Result: 1.66
Highest Profit: 23.01
Highest Loss: -22.75