Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Quote from Swan Noir:

What about keeping your entry methodology the same but putting in exit levels. You could close positions that are either down two points or up six ... or whatever ratio you want to test.
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If you can prove to yourself and others that you can gain at least 1 tic per day by adding these new rules, I'll adopt them. Fire away. I'm not going to test them.
 
Quote from Kap:

Just find 20 tossers, plenty in London, let them trade, monitor the net position and take the opposite side to the group. bingo!
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I agree with this improvement. Sadly I can't afford to hire 20 MBA in finance preppies. Let's stick with the original beggar for now.
 
Quote from Whisky:

Let's keep the discussion centered in ES futures as the instrument for now. But if you start a thread with options as instrument, you can link it here.
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as far as the ES future, all i can suggest is, you buy at bid or short at ask. there is about 90% chances of being filled. that most probably cancel out the effect of slippage and lead to perfectly neutral zero sum expectancy.

then it is all about luck...

anything beyond this point is pure fantasy, as the law of large numbers takes no prisoners.
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

What if the homeless guy, in between coin-tossing, got some newspapers from the trash and cleaned passing cars' windows?

He could harass people to give him change, thereby covering your commission cost and bringing the system closer to b/e.
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Nice thinking, but let's assume you are trading 500 lots. No amount of window cleaning can overcome those commissions on a daily basis.

You are suggesting sources of income outside of trading and cost cutting. The first is not part of the method, the second can be.

But nice thinking: Cut costs as much as possible, and be frugal. Add it to the list.
 
Quote from lexcorp:

Sounds like an extremely interesting, Extreme and profitable system! BANG!!!
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The system, as is, is a losing system. Do you have any suggestions to make it profitable?.
 
Quote from crash n burn:

as far as the ES future, all i can suggest is, you buy at bid or short at ask. there is about 90% chances of being filled. that most probably cancel out the effect of slippage and lead to perfectly neutral zero sum expectancy.

then it is all about luck...

anything beyond this point is pure fantasy, as the law of large numbers takes no prisoners.
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Nope. You'll be filled on all the losers and left unfilled on many winners. Suboptimal. You have an order to buy or sell, your obligation is to execute at 16:15 or come up with a PROVEN better entry and/or exit and/or variation in risk management that gains at least 1 extra tic per day on average.
 
Quote from wee man:

If the second toss in succession is the same would an increase in size make a difference?
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Now that you mention size as a variable, the need for a size management algo is highlighted. You will need to prove to yourself and others that adding this "size management algo" produces at least 1 extra tic per day on average.

Any suggestions?.
 
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