Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

You could throw tails for a week straight in this market and blow your account to hell. What then?

You could throw heads or tails any day and blow your account in the next 5 minutes. What then?.

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

No. You prove break-even first.

I did.

Let's see if someone else can make a proof that you like better. (I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you).

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

Your logic works in the casino with a fixed win/loss. It doesn't work in a long biased market that has the ability to trend your 50/50 trading into submission.

If you started trading in 2007 it doesn't look so much long biased.

AyeYo · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from Whisky:

You could throw heads for a week straight in this market and blow your account to hell. What then?

See above post. Even when your coin toss sample size is large enough to hit 50/50, there's nothing guaranteeing you aren't winning on the small moves and losing on the big moves.

I don't need to post a chart of the DOW for you, you know damn well it's biased long. How do you figure a 50/50 call method is break even in the long term when the underlying intrument is constantly trending up?

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

See above post. Even when your coin toss sample size is large enough to hit 50/50, there's nothing guaranteeing you aren't winning on the small moves and losing on the big moves.

I don't need to post a chart of the DOW for you, you know damn well it's biased long. How do you figure a 50/50 call method is break even in the long term when the underlying intrument is constantly trending up?

So first you want proof and now a guarantee?. Is that it?. Do you want a 19 year old big titted blonde that gives good head as well?.

AyeYo · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from Whisky:

If you started trading in 2007 it doesn't look so much long biased.

And if you started trading this morning it looks short biased. What's your point?

If your coin toss method only works... when it works... then what's the point?

AyeYo · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from Whisky:

So first you want proof and now a guarantee?. Is that it?. Do you want a 19 year old big titted blonde that gives good head as well?.

Depends if you're able to arrange that.

I said I wanted proof, show me proof. Wiki commutitive property didn't say anything.

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

And if you started trading this morning it looks short biased. What's your point?

If your coin toss method only works... when it works... then what's the point?

Exactly!. It beats 95% of traders. That's the point.

AyeYo · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from Whisky:

Exactly!. It beats 95% of traders. That's the point.

Then it's NOT break-even?

Let me ask you straight up, and, yes, "proof" means "guarantee" - is it absolutely break-even? Can you prove that it's break-even?

Beating 95% of traders means nothing because you haven't PROVED that 95% are losers (since you're all about calling for proof). Again, you're implying break-even but you have not PROVED break-even.

The coin toss is break-even over time, it comes out 50/50, we all get that. I want to know how you're assuming that your win and loss amounts will also remain equal in a long biased market, or even just with a variable win/loss size system (not a fixed bet amount).

Whisky · Oct 20, 2009

Quote from AyeYo:

Depends if you're able to arrange that.

I said I wanted proof, show me proof. Wiki commutitive property didn't say anything.

EV of first toss: 0.5 X - 0.5 X -costs
EV of second toss: 0.5 Y - 0.5 Y-costs
...
EV of Nth toss: 0.5 N - 0.5 N-costs

Sum of EV: 0 - sum of costs

X, Y, ..., N are what you call the size of wins and losses.

That's the best I can do. Good night.

p.s.: EV is "Expected value".