Realistic Return %

It isn't due yet. But I have enough $ margin of safety to pay off and to take one out for the next month, where I hope to run it up and be able to keep a full account for myself.
 
Quote from 5yrtrader:

The reason I am posting sarcastic answers is because trading doesn't supply a constant source of income. For most traders the number is negative. For profitable traders there are huge swings in their returns. No one makes 10% a month every month. In one week you could make more than the rest of the year. Saying "I will start out with 100,000 and make 5%/month" and figure out how much you will have at the end of the year is ridiculous and missing the point.
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The damn market likes to call the shots and tell you whether it wants to pay you or rip you off.
 
I'm not saying that I know any better than you, as I have yet to even trade. And I do realize, well before coming to this site, that most traders lose there ass.

But..... As I've been digging through this site it does not seem unreasonable to be able to make steady money or a certain percentage every month if you are a disiplined trader, with good money management and a strategy and stick to your own rules after you prove and backtest them and change when need be t.

Your post did not seem sarcastic, just your viewpoint. I have no problem with that. I just get irate when someone is simply talking down, for the sake of talking down. Hearing from both sides of the coin will temper my outlook on this profession into a realistic view.
I have no expectations, or wild dreams.
Those who expect never work to make it happen, and dreams are little better than wishing.
 
i agree with 5yrtrader
Quote from 5yrtrader:

The reason I am posting sarcastic answers is because trading doesn't supply a constant source of income. For most traders the number is negative. For profitable traders there are huge swings in their returns. No one makes 10% a month every month. In one week you could make more than the rest of the year. Saying "I will start out with 100,000 and make 5%/month" and figure out how much you will have at the end of the year is ridiculous and missing the point.
More...
"The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages." Chapter 2, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

i liked 5yrtrader's first response best but think he's being generous with average trader 1%/month ==> 12%/year... any traders consistently making 12%/year i think is above average

(consider index returns, then factor in commissions, slippage, taxes, etc.)
 
Quote from ric:


I have no expectations, or wild dreams.
Those who expect never work to make it happen, and dreams are little better than wishing.
More...

ric, I think you have the right attitude and I think you will go far in trading as well as in life. My apologies, :(
 
It really depends a lot on the size of your accounts. My ROE% is more now than in the past, but I'm trading with less money. It's varied substantially as different strategies have appeared and disappeared.

Since the start of 2003, I've averaged 11%/month on a total equity of 5-6 figures, trading 100K-300K shares/month. Most months are between +7% and +15%. I've had no losing months, though one came mighty close (+0.6% :) ). These numbers include commissions and other brokerage fees, but not additional quote services, APIs, news, internet connectivity, etc. that total about $600/month.
 
The question itself is a faulty one that everyone starting out asks -- what I mean is, I'm sure by "realistic" you are looking for a number which a beginning trader might one day try to achieve once he's made the turn to profitability, correct? But given the fact that 90%+ traders are unprofitable, while the best in the business can take a small account and have 100+% years for a number of years, where exactly would "realistic" fall into? If you're told a good swing trader can make 40% a year, what happens if you make 10% or 75%? What does it change?

But if you're just talking about some teaching course or system to purchase, a realistic expectation will be somewhere between 0 and -100%, in all seriousness.
 
And I apologize for letting my temper get the best of me, and post things I probably shouldn't have had. I will in the future try to swallow my pride if I post something that is obviously a newb question, and it inspires someone to flame me.

I'm just trying to get my feet wet and learn. Posting on this site has made me interested even more in trading, I've been getting very burned out on just reading books.

I'm likeing the training sections articles on strategy tradeing, and backtesting. Probly another newb question, but if you backtested a strat across a large timeframe and it worked well a great percentage of the time, and you could enter and exit properly according to your strat and rules, what would throw it off?
 
ric, I think 50% return on your equity per year is an excellent performance. If you start out with $25,000 initial capital and are able to average 50% a year, then after 10 years you will be a millionaire. To put things in perspective, let's say you start trading when you are 25; then by 35 you will have a million in cash in the bank and will be able to buy this baby :cool: Now how many millionaires do you now that are younger than 35 and drive such cars...

05-spider-fside-s.jpg
 
The only reason I asked the whole, "realistic percentage," questions was because once I am profitable (if ever) I plan on just letting the acount compound over many years, as I already run a business that pays for my living expenses.

I know probably something I shouldn't even concern my self with now at this point, thinking to far ahead. Baby steps..... baby steps...
 
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