RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND
- Thread starter traderdragon2
- Start date
For 2006: Existing home sales fell by 8.4%. Median price rose 1.1%.
Truely an epic crash.
Truely an epic crash.
There's a clear disconnect between new home prices and existing home prices. Why? Primarily because new developments are built on available vacant lands in previously less desirable areas. The young buyers who are balking at paying up for a home in the Imperial Valley are not the same buyers who're chasing limited supply in exclusive Coastal communities. The spreads between "good" and "bad" will only widen. Ala' Brazil.....
Median price quoting is crap!!!
I can tell you where I live, high end/custom market is cruising right along 900K+. Anything under 550-600K, working class level, sits on the market FOREVER unless priced really right. The pool of qualified buyers is GONE!
Homes here have been on the market for over a year... vacant with no takers. Prices are off at least 20% from peak levels as well for the under 550K market.
Not to mention, the only reason inventory levels dropped is because people pulled the homes for sale on the market, and are "Waiting on the sidelines" for things to get better to put them back on the market. The numbers are misleading.
Foreclosures are up almost 100%.
And in san diego, take a look at this chart
Interest rates have been going down for months and only recently started going up again.
The only thing propping this market up is historically low interest rates. There are some real nervous people in the government right now. Nearly all the increase in the employment numbers is socal are from real estate related jobs and those are in a nose dive now. Construction way down, etc.
They wont be able to hold interest rates down forever, and were still at record breaking inventory levels, with people moving out of the area.
It will be a miracle if the feds can keep this fragile egg from cracking and spilling its guts.
ARM and interest only resets are going to accelerate in 2007 and 2008. Like I said, this is going to take a lot longer than people think its going to take.
People calling a bottom are much too early, this is the very begining. It took about a decade for the last SoCal crash to unwind itself, and this spike is 3 times the magnitude of the last one.
We are down more than this now, this chart is already dated.
The chart also doesnt show all the hidden "kick backs" being offered by builders, so its very misleading as well.
Foreclosures are up almost 100%.
And in san diego, take a look at this chart
Interest rates have been going down for months and only recently started going up again.
The only thing propping this market up is historically low interest rates. There are some real nervous people in the government right now. Nearly all the increase in the employment numbers is socal are from real estate related jobs and those are in a nose dive now. Construction way down, etc.
They wont be able to hold interest rates down forever, and were still at record breaking inventory levels, with people moving out of the area.
It will be a miracle if the feds can keep this fragile egg from cracking and spilling its guts.
ARM and interest only resets are going to accelerate in 2007 and 2008. Like I said, this is going to take a lot longer than people think its going to take.
People calling a bottom are much too early, this is the very begining. It took about a decade for the last SoCal crash to unwind itself, and this spike is 3 times the magnitude of the last one.
We are down more than this now, this chart is already dated.
The chart also doesnt show all the hidden "kick backs" being offered by builders, so its very misleading as well.
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Never no never heard of them giving back anything ;
and they usually sell it quick, and usually sue the borrorer for the loss. And usually its written in the contract you pay the ''deficiency judgement /lawyers fees/RE agent fees''.
So the most likely scenerio borrower owes them 50k/100k on 500k home ;
actually the bank /mortgage co doesnt want RE, so they do tend to sell it quick/cheap.
I did write in a bank contract once with my current bank;
''no deficiency judgements'' just to see if the bank & thier lawyer would sign a RE contract with that. They did
"Regionally, existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 4.3 percent in December to a level of 1.47 million, but were 5.8 percent lower than December 2005. The median price in the Midwest was $167,000, which is 2.9 percent below a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the South increased 0.8 percent to an annual sales rate of 2.49 million in December, but were 7.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $182,000, unchanged from December 2005.
Existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.8 percent to a level of 1.04 million in December, and were 5.5 percent below December 2005. The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $283,000, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
Existing-home sales in the West fell 9.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.20 million in December and were 15.5 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the West was $349,000, up 1.5 percent from December 2005. "
2006 Ex Home Sales
Quote from traderdragon2:
Not to mention, the only reason inventory levels dropped is because people pulled the homes for sale on the market, and are "Waiting on the sidelines" for things to get better to put them back on the market. The numbers are misleading.
Foreclosures are up almost 100%.
And in san diego, take a look at this chart
Interest rates have been going down for months and only recently started going up again.
The only thing propping this market up is historically low interest rates. There are some real nervous people in the government right now. Nearly all the increase in the employment numbers is socal are from real estate related jobs and those are in a nose dive now. Construction way down, etc.
They wont be able to hold interest rates down forever, and were still at record breaking inventory levels, with people moving out of the area.
It will be a miracle if the feds can keep this fragile egg from cracking and spilling its guts.
ARM and interest only resets are going to accelerate in 2007 and 2008. Like I said, this is going to take a lot longer than people think its going to take.
People calling a bottom are much too early, this is the very begining. It took about a decade for the last SoCal crash to unwind itself, and this spike is 3 times the magnitude of the last one.
We are down more than this now, this chart is already dated.
The chart also doesnt show all the hidden "kick backs" being offered by builders, so its very misleading as well.
Plus it only shows houses that closed. It like a $50 dollar stock with a $2 dollar spread.
John
Quote from murray t turtle:
==============
Never no never heard of them giving back anything ;
and they usually sell it quick, and usually sue the borrorer for the loss. And usually its written in the contract you pay the ''deficiency judgement /lawyers fees/RE agent fees''.
So the most likely scenerio borrower owes them 50k/100k on 500k home ;
actually the bank /mortgage co doesnt want RE, so they do tend to sell it quick/cheap.
I did write in a bank contract once with my current bank;
''no deficiency judgements'' just to see if the bank & thier lawyer would sign a RE contract with that. They did
If you have PMI, wouldn't the insurance company pay the bank for some of the loss (if the price they sell for is less than the loan amount), thereby having the borrower not pay for the entire loss?
Also, what if the borrower is totally broke, which is what happens I'm sure in most foreclosures; how would they pay for the loss then? Does the lender just take a hit and move on?