RealEstate - THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND

UPDATE

1/12/2007 - san diego

Pre-foreclosures: 1714
Auction: 334
Bank owned: 1153

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1/28/2007 - san diego

Pre-foreclosures: 1555
Auction: 408
Bank owned: 1323

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3/5/2007

Pre-foreclosures: 1282
Auction: 473
Bank owned: 1718


BANK OWNED homes keep going up as more pre-foreclosures throw in the towel


Thats a 49% increase in bank owned homes since the end of january :eek:
 
Quote from TrendSailor:

ha - profit of $350k - but it will get worse. :D

This slowdown is in fact very very healthy for the real estate market and will improve the market efficiency and shake out the speculative component and improve the market structure.

The dirty little truth that the doom and gloomers want everyone to forget is that the national population is SOARING due to massive immigration (legal - not just illegal immigration). PEOPLE ARE COMING TO AMERICA IN DROVES. Also the dollar is way down globally and America is on sale at A BARGAIN! Given the massive amount of global liquidity caused by EXCESSIVE WORLD SAVINGS (e.g. surplus capital in foreign bank accounts) that money is looking for a home. My PREDICTION - ITS COMING TO AMERICA!

All the doom and gloom campaign is designed to shake out the speculators and to free up unrealized capital gains so the government can bank its TAX REVENUE in 2006-2008 to help the current administration look like white knights. Already the US Treasury has WINDFALLS in tax income as a result of people taking their profits/equity and moving it into other investments (e.g. the sizzling stock market). The other little dirty truth is that NEVER AGAIN will Real Estate be able to be purchased for anything close to current prices since global competition for scarce commodities is DRIVING MATERIAL PRICES through the roof. At this moment in time we have a fortuitous confluence of events with relatively cheap oil, cheap labor and temporarily moderate material costs. Real estate can NOT be replaced at the cost of the existing inventory on the market. That MEANS BUY NOW FOOLS or kiss your chances goodbye over the next 2 years. Just as soon as the attitudes are adjusted and the tax is collected the sentiment will be re-engineered and it will be back to the hoard buying mentality again. Just as soon as the low hanging cheap fruit starts to gets picked from the surplus inventory prices will skyrocket up again. That is when home builders will start cranking up the machine again.

Understand the game - and profit by it. BUY BUY BUY the biggest you can afford right now to get best $/sq-ft advantage inherent in larger homes. The sweet spot is in homes and condos built about 2 years ago before price of material shot up. They have the most equity luxury to bargain with right now and developers can't compete with new offerings until the old inventory clears.

BUY BUY BUY
TS
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i love this post lololol
 
Quote from otcstockfund:

i love this post lololol
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Bye Bye, is more like it.

Not my first rodeo. It always end w/ the Cowboys. By Real Estate. Ain't makin' no more of it. Then, the guy telling you he flips homes. How well he's done. The bank owning more homes than the developers. Always the same. The variable is, how long it takes to break, and how foolish you look until you look brilliant. There is no middle ground. Stupid - Brilliant. Overnight. Last night was the night.
 
I can show you at least 4 foreclosures that hit the market in the past 7 days in Carlsbad area that are already in escrow. Carmel Valley is one of the most stable markets in the continental US at present. I would submit that Olivenhain (submarket of Encinitas 92024) is quite possibly the hottest market in the continental US at present. There are a few submarkets that are not feeling the real estate contraction at all, some feeling it slightly, and some falling apart at the seams. I track NOD's and Foreclosures daily and weekly and in the county of San Diego, 90% of the problems are in the Chula Vista area and the 92056 and 92057 zipcodes of Oceanside. Riverside is in shambles. The people who normally rent and did the ridiculous zero down stated income fantasy loan are getting their asses handed to them for getting sucked into the foolishness. They are now renters again with banks holding their bag. Back in the early 90's there were foreclosures sitting for months and even years before they got scooped. The prime homes in the prime locations within SD County are stable. I could type much more but don't have the time. I will say that the easy money and foolishness went deeper than just the landscapers buying $800K houses. I've seen people who bought for $46K in the mid 70's refinance their lives away and go into foreclosure. Very sad indeed. This time IS different insasmuch as normally conservative older folks got sucked into the bubble vortex. It's gonna be flatline to down for at least 5 more years before this whole thing shakes out. The gap between the haves and the have nots is pretty remarkable right now.
 
all bull markets are remarkably similar

yet, people still have disbelief it can happen (which is why it does)

we have had a massive housing bubble.

it's no different than 1929 and 1987 in stocks, or centuries ago in dutch tulips

i have had (idiots) tell me you can't lose in real estate . they aren't saying that any more

CNBC interviewed vegas strippers who were real estate spec's about a year ago

read the writing on the wall

people are WAY WAY overleveraged in real estate. negative amort loans, etc.

most stock traders understand the downside to leverage. most home investors don't

buy a home for 400k.

put 50k down.

you owe 350k on a 400k home.

house goes up 20%, you went from a 50k equity stake to a 150k stake.

300%!!!!

but the downside they forget.

400k home is now worth 300k 33% drop

your equity is now NEGATIVE

you owe 350k on the frigging house worth 300

you just lost 100k

and that's not even counting transaction costs, excise taxes, real estate fees, property taxes while you hold it, etc.

real estate much more illiquid than stocks

and real estatemarket is GLUTTED with homes. supply is in control

we have had a greater %age of home ownership PER CAPITA than at any time in recorded history.

many of these people MASSIVELY overleveraged and undercapitalizad

do the math

a chart of the real estate index is literally a mirror image of the tech stock crash and the 1929 crash

put them next to each other on the same scale.

plus ca change

btw, i live in seattle. just sold one of my houses for a nice profit. now, my only house is the one i live in.

i would love a nice big bear market here (still bullish here) to sell my primary res and move into a bigger house at fire sale prices

buy when people hate it, and sell when they love it.
 
In 2008 the capital gains tax rate goes as low as it's gonna, so I've been expecting the bottoming out to be 2008 because of 2008's capital-gains-rate-driven selling pressure from the "Haves" on top of the interest-rate-driven selling pressure from the "Have nots".

I would not expect to see the return of an uptrend before 2009.
 
prolly true

but remember everybody gets that 1 time 250 k cap gains write off

and MANY of the homes hitting the market are first homes, so cap gains irrelevant (unless more than 250k or 500k per couple)
 
Quote from whitster:

all bull markets are remarkably similar

yet, people still have disbelief it can happen (which is why it does)

we have had a massive housing bubble.

it's no different than 1929 and 1987 in stocks, or centuries ago in dutch tulips

i have had (idiots) tell me you can't lose in real estate . they aren't saying that any more

CNBC interviewed vegas strippers who were real estate spec's about a year ago

read the writing on the wall

people are WAY WAY overleveraged in real estate. negative amort loans, etc.

most stock traders understand the downside to leverage. most home investors don't

buy a home for 400k.

put 50k down.

you owe 350k on a 400k home.

house goes up 20%, you went from a 50k equity stake to a 150k stake.

300%!!!!

but the downside they forget.

400k home is now worth 300k 33% drop

your equity is now NEGATIVE

you owe 350k on the frigging house worth 300

you just lost 100k

and that's not even counting transaction costs, excise taxes, real estate fees, property taxes while you hold it, etc.

real estate much more illiquid than stocks

and real estatemarket is GLUTTED with homes. supply is in control

we have had a greater %age of home ownership PER CAPITA than at any time in recorded history.

many of these people MASSIVELY overleveraged and undercapitalizad

do the math

a chart of the real estate index is literally a mirror image of the tech stock crash and the 1929 crash

put them next to each other on the same scale.

plus ca change

btw, i live in seattle. just sold one of my houses for a nice profit. now, my only house is the one i live in.

i would love a nice big bear market here (still bullish here) to sell my primary res and move into a bigger house at fire sale prices

buy when people hate it, and sell when they love it.
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Agree mostly. Your market (seattle) has been pretty resilient. Still, one cannot take the media bullsh*t numbers and apply them across the board for all real estate markets. Look and aapl, bidu and crox (after hours) today...you get my drift...
still...I am not totally sold on the fact that the deterioration will not spread to the healthier locations. The real estate market is like a huge supertanker, it takes a while for the thing to turn...forward, backward, and sideways.

The titanic still sunk but some people survived.

I like the way you think man.

Cheers
 
Quote from tneub:

I have been speculating in the Foreclosure market here in New Jersey...Right along the North-East Corridor....I have purchased 2 homes this month....
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How do you find foreclosed homes in northern New Jersey? Is there a website or service?
 
Quote from tneub:

I have been speculating in the Foreclosure market here in New Jersey...Right along the North-East Corridor....I have purchased 2 homes this month....more foreclosures...mean that I will be able to cherry pick...as buyers are sparse....but again...IM A SALESMAN....and a TRADER....I have always been able to sell/trade a quality product regardless of the market conditions....and for this I am blessed...
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Tnueb,
While your plan is very good in writing, actually, have you seen the backlog of homes for sale on the market?

You don't make your $40k until you sell your home...

Its going to take you 3-4 months.
The only homes being quickly sold are the ones below value, foreclosured (the one you got) , everything else priced at normal price will take forever to sell!!!


Sure you got a property, you fixed up, invested (that was the easy part)

The hard part is selling the damn thing.

Good luck!
 
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