Real or fake?

Quote from toc:

Spike,

You might want to atleast mention the basis of your system, Elliot Wave, Oscillator, Support Resistence etc. This will help us in taking further interest or seeking other familiar grounds. I do not like EW or Gann although they work nicely after the fact, so if you are EW based then..........thanks for the charts anyways!
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I looked it up for you; read the thread mentioned below starting at page 11:

Forums ›› Technically Speaking ›› Strategy Trading ›› Exit methods for trend-traders
 
Quote from optionpro007:

Spike:

So you can understand me better, I'll give you a simple example.

When baby elephants are born, they are tied to big wooden posts so they can't move around.

As the elephant grows older the wooden post used are always smaller, to the point that a full grown elephant can be tied to a very small wooden post and will not move.

This is called conditioning.

I believe you have conditioned yourself to accepting less that you can achieve, only because you had a bad experience at the beginning.

Simple food for thought.....

Good luck.

Cord
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Funny.
BTW, you must be still one of them small baby elephants tied to a big pole.
:cool:
 
Quote from jsmith:

Can you post the charts for this week with the signals?
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Monday and tuesday charts.

On tuesday you can see where i posted in REALTIME my vision on what should happen.
We went up heavily and corrected. It was for more than 90% statistical sure that we would go up and that i would make money.
I didn't get out at the top because i have a system to follow. If you don't follow your system the value of the stats from testing that system are zero.
Conclusion: ALWAYS follow your system, NEVER do anything else. That's the most difficult part of trading. Discipline and do what you have to do, even if it appears to be wrong this time; because in the long run your trades should approach the results from your hypothetical trading or backtesting.
 

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hi spikey

I would like to know if your method has ever been tested on other markets ?

I find the stock index futures have some unique
indicators that other derivatives do not have

how would you know if your system or method
did not work anymore for ES ?

good luck ...

:)
 
Quote from SethArb:

hi spikey

I would like to know if your method has ever been tested on other markets ?

I find the stock index futures have some unique
indicators that other derivatives do not have

how would you know if your system or method
did not work anymore for ES ?

good luck ...

:)
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My system has never been tested on anything else. I started trading FOREX but at that moment the system was not what is is now, so i can't judge on that.

I don't have the energy nor the motivation to start testing again. I had enough data to backtest more than 1000 trades. So after each modification i had to manually test the system on +1000 trades, write down all the results in Excel and analyze everything. That's very demanding physically and mentally. Especially if after a test the results were bad and the conclusion was that the test ( that could take several days) had been useless. Each time i had to motivate myself again for the next test.
It was so demanding that i sometimes had to take a few days of, just to empty my head and to get new energy. I have done this for several years, six days a week and at least 8 hours a day.

I don't know how long the system will work. Since the beginning people told me that it would probably work only for a few years. But i think that the basics of the system are very good as they adapt themselves to the trend in the market.
 
Quote from spike500:

My system has never been tested on anything else. I started trading FOREX but at that moment the system was not what is is now, so i can't judge on that.

I don't have the energy nor the motivation to start testing again. I had enough data to backtest more than 1000 trades. So after each modification i had to manually test the system on +1000 trades, write down all the results in Excel and analyze everything. That's very demanding physically and mentally. Especially if after a test the results were bad and the conclusion was that the test ( that could take several days) had been useless. Each time i had to motivate myself again for the next test.
It was so demanding that i sometimes had to take a few days of, just to empty my head and to get new energy. I have done this for several years, six days a week and at least 8 hours a day.

I don't know how long the system will work. Since the beginning people told me that it would probably work only for a few years. But i think that the basics of the system are very good as they adapt themselves to the trend in the market.
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thats real testing!

the beauty is that you now have a much better comprehension of the numbers you are dealing with. sure, you could have got a bit of software to test it for you (maybe) but you wouldnt have got the same understanding.

maybe the system may lose its edge over time? look for changes in the test data you have to see this. are ther significant changes say every 100 trade run? this could give you some idea.

personally i only test this way for about 50 occurrences. they say 40 is statistically significant, but i know others would disagree strongly with that. i only use 50 cos i dont see the point in testing an idea when the markets and vol could have been totally different - but thats just me.

each to their own.
 
spike, c'mon, I cannot look it up now, but I remember you writing here or in another thread "it works in all kinds of markets".

what's the deal here ?
 
1. previous catastrophic blowout
2. claim of several million in assets
3. attention grasping grail thread
4. painstakingly doctored screenshots of perfect hindsight trades
5. arrogant self defense
6. self contradictory statements
7. brief posting history detailing numerous system rules/factors

could be authentic, but this is a familiar profile
 
Quote from local_crusher:

spike, c'mon, I cannot look it up now, but I remember you writing here or in another thread "it works in all kinds of markets".

what's the deal here ?
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Please look up the posting because if it says: it works in all kinds of markets

or: it should work in all kinds of markets


there is a huge difference.

1 thing is sure: i'm sure i never said it had been tested on 1000 trades, except for the ES. So i probably said that is should work because to be sure one needs to do an extensive test.

But look up the posting because you are assuming that i told something that i maybe (probably) didn't say at all.
 
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