Real or fake?
- Thread starter PitchBlack
- Start date
All the buy and sell signals are always at the bollinger bands, that's a statistical fact. But the bollinger bands give a multiple of signals of which the biggest part are worthless.
It is probably a very simple system; how many people make comparable profits as 95 % of the daytraders lose money?
No it has nothing at all to do with bollinger bands, nor with MA's.
It's placed in a 3minute chart because it gives maximum clarity in 1 screen, the chart should normally fill the screen exactly. So 3 minutes has nothing to do with it.
All i wanted to publish on the system has already been published on ET.
Quote from SethArb:
JUNE ES ?
the pros rolled over to SEP thursday
I'm not a pro, i'm an amateur in it's beginning stage.
What is a roll over? Has it something to do with the word ROFLMAO?
I stayed in the JUN contract because when the pro's switch to the SEPT contract i have less competition then (only the amateurs stay) and more changes to make money, it's part of the system. Trade against the weak and dummies.
Can you explain me perhaps why the two last days wouldn't be valid as they were in the previous contract?
For those who are not prepossessed:
The only reason why they all are in the JUN contract is because the trades were generated from monday on in 1 series for the complete week. Otherwise i would have to make the same test on the SEP contract a second time. And as i'm lazy i kept them all in the same contract, i don't want to waste too much energy on it as i already know which direction the postings will go at the end.
Within a few days i will give my analysis about the reactions i got. Each poster tells a lot of himself by posting here, some will prove themselves that they don't know what they are talking about, others will confirm what i already knew: that they are pro's.
The trades generated 57.5 points profit; if we take for each in- or out signal 0.25 points slippage 51 points are left over for the last week. So average over 10 points a day.
The trades generated 57.5 points profit; if we take for each in- or out signal 0.25 points slippage 51 points are left over for the last week. So average over 10 points a day.
MA's always lag behind. If on top of that you want to use cross overs the lag will even increase. Please give me the MA and the cross over values so that we can check if this hypothesis is correct and to see if the answer is that simple.
You can use a fast MA or a slow MA, but you cannot have both. If you look carefully you will see that sometimes signals come after a long period where the prices hardly move, and sometimes signals come very fast after each others. That is impossible with any MA. You can take big moves with a slow MA or fast market reversals with a fast MA, but you cannot take both kinds of moves with 1 kind of MA.
Many of the signals are at tops or bottoms, that is impossible with MA's due to the lag.
About the Bollinger Bands theory:
On Monday we broke the lower band in 20 bars ( of 3 min charts) before we got out of the short. In the long we broke the upper band in 18 bars before we got out. The long we took was above the lower band and we broke the lower band 2 times after the position was taken.
On Tuesday in the long we broke the upper band in 10 bars before we short, and we broke the upper band 9 times after the short was taken. In the short we broke the lower band in 25 bars before we got out.
The same remarks can be made for the other days.
So the remark about the Bollinger Bands as well as about the MAâs prove that the charts were not analysed carefully. Accuracy and correctness in analysis is essential to become a good trader. It makes the difference between losing and winning.
On Monday we broke the lower band in 20 bars ( of 3 min charts) before we got out of the short. In the long we broke the upper band in 18 bars before we got out. The long we took was above the lower band and we broke the lower band 2 times after the position was taken.
On Tuesday in the long we broke the upper band in 10 bars before we short, and we broke the upper band 9 times after the short was taken. In the short we broke the lower band in 25 bars before we got out.
The same remarks can be made for the other days.
So the remark about the Bollinger Bands as well as about the MAâs prove that the charts were not analysed carefully. Accuracy and correctness in analysis is essential to become a good trader. It makes the difference between losing and winning.
Yes, these trades can come from a system that is programmed.
I think you use some kind of a Trend Trigger Factor as a setup and a bar kind of action as a trigger to enter or exit.
But I need more trades to be sure.
Can also be done with calculation of the daily range. The only thing I'm sure of is your trigger. The bar where the trades occur are in the direction of the trade. And even maybe the system uses a two bar "action" trigger.
But why would you want to know the answer to a question you all ready know?
I think you use some kind of a Trend Trigger Factor as a setup and a bar kind of action as a trigger to enter or exit.
But I need more trades to be sure.
Can also be done with calculation of the daily range. The only thing I'm sure of is your trigger. The bar where the trades occur are in the direction of the trade. And even maybe the system uses a two bar "action" trigger.
But why would you want to know the answer to a question you all ready know?
This tread was in fact a reaction on heavy discussions in the past about things that were supposed not to work or to be impossible:
· Trend following is the best way to trade from the point of view of risk/reward. I think that should be clear when you look at the charts ( almost never a 2 points open loss on positions).
· Very high % of profitable trades.
· Bad trades can most of the time be closed before they turn in a loss.
· Returns can be huge just by following the trend.
· Trends can be predicted. I get in or out before the reversal of the trend, which means that I know IN ADVANCE that itâs time to get out.
Thatâs why I posted these trades generated by a trend following system. So the only question that remains is: are the signals real or fake?
I know for myself what the correct answer is.