Real infation rate (Including Food and Energy)

T

The Kin2

I think everyone will agree that the government is playing with CPI inflation. The extent is unkown and debatable. It could be insignificant or complete lies.

So my question is... Are there any economics or business websites which make a serious and objective attempt to independently track CPI and compare it against what's reported by the BLS?

I'm willing to bet by even the most conservative estimates that we've hit 4% per annum in recent years.
 
The Powers are massaging* our perception of inflation. For my money, I say 6% minimum, perhaps as much as 10%.

* You know, fudging the data, lying, pumping the people full of balloon juice.
 
Quote from The Kin2:

I think everyone will agree that the government is playing with CPI inflation. The extent is unkown and debatable. It could be insignificant or complete lies.

So my question is... Are there any economics or business websites which make a serious and objective attempt to independently track CPI and compare it against what's reported by the BLS?

I'm willing to bet by even the most conservative estimates that we've hit 4% per annum in recent years.
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If you live a more or less average family life, your expenses are probably as good as any true inflation indicator. Better perhaps.

Bear in mind that removing food and all of gas from the CPI only works if you walk everywhere and never eat or drink.
 
IMO the fed is doing a terrible job of controlling costs. It looks like its going to get worse.

The fact that energy has remained so high for so long and is now creeping back towards $70, is going to be a problem.

All the government can do is lie about the inventory data to try and keep oil under control.
 
Quote from myminitrading:

"... All the government can do is lie about the inventory data to try and keep oil under control...."
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Well, they COULD stop deficit spending and printing money willy nilly. That's the real source of the inflation.
 
Its like a signal today for commodities to soar because our government has said inflation is ok.

Crude up 2.45% $67.90, corn, wheat, copper, everything up.

Oh my, could you imagine if we get a hurricane in the gulf, the fed is making a hugh mistake.
 
I agree inflation is running high.

An important point though.

The Fed is impotent in controlling commodity inflation.

Hurricanes, droughts, supply disruptions ect. are all ignorant to the Fed's overnight lending rate.

If anything the Fed hope's that higher fuel and food bills will themselves be a brake on spending.

Much of the world is in the same boat. Japan is the extreme case. Their economy is clearly slowing, debt is through the roof and yet inflation (Japan imports virtually all of their raw materials) is high. The BOJ and the credit markets are signaling rate hikes but Japanese politicians worry about higher rates putting Japan back in recession.

Bernanke worries about the same issues. Housing is a major cog in the economy. Even with relatively benign rate increases real estate borrowing is at a standstill.

As always things are more complicated then they seem.....
 
Quote from The Kin2:

Are there any economics or business websites which make a serious and objective attempt to independently track CPI and compare it against what's reported by the BLS?
More...
I don't know of any websites offhand, but pay attention to the GDP Deflator and M3.

The GDP deflator may be one of the cleanest ways of measuring inflation as it "automatically" takes into account quality and substitutions rather than having the government decide on a basket.

M3 is no longer published, but is derivable. Someone (Surdo maybe) posts it every month or so on ET.
 
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