Quote from DynamicReplic8r:
Does your system only deal with FX prices, or does it look at other markets as well? For example, if treasury prices, equity prices, gold prices, etc. change, does that matter to your system?
An unrelated question. If your system buys and the price goes against it and slowly continues to go against it, how does it decide when to take the loss, when to fade (Do you ever add to your position if it's going in your favor or if it's going against you?), or when to wait it out? Assuming you are buying, does the stop ever move down?
Good questions!
It does not measure âthird-marketâ (thatâs what I call any market that can impact currency prices and specifically the currency pair that I trade) events âdirectlyâ. However, it does measure third-market impact on FX pair movement âindirectly. If you take a look at what moves the FX markets, you will find that they have global residence, unlike most of the stocks in the North American Stock Exchanges. The major culprit, of course, being global rates. Traders of the fundamental bent are for the most part, rate hunters â and for good reason â rates move FX markets especially the big six.
If you look at all of the conversation by the experts in the currency markets, almost every single day, you hear people talking about what will happen to rates ânextâ. So, when you look these other markets, you have to balance their activity against global rate movement before you can make any concrete judgments about whether or not a tertiary marketâs movement will be sufficient to ignite a reasonable vector within the pair that you trade.
Now, when you look at FX data, what you find is that it already âcontainsâ these tertiary market vectors by definition. If any of these markets are capable of moving the FX market â or â if there is evidence for this kind of cross-market impact, then that will show up in the underlying data of the FX market. If those vectors are there, then when you are conducting TA analysis on FX data, you canât help be measure as a simple matter of fact. The delta between the EURUSD High of March 21st, 2000 at 1:00pm Eastern and the Low of March 22nd, 2000 at 1:00pm Eastern, if it was impacted by tertiary market activity, then it will be a component that gets measured in your analysis and back testing.
So, in this system, the use of the Price Point Delta along the OHLC spectrum (the distance between price points such as Open to Low, or the Close of Today to the Close of Yesterday and a myriad of other OHLC combinations) is used heavily. Those deltas contain the âenergyâ from any previous tertiary market event that was sufficient to âmoveâ the pair. So, the system âindirectlyâ tracks this by âdirectlyâ measuring what is already inherent in the FX data.
Lastly, I donât pyramid my losses buy adding to a losing position at price points out-the-money. I trade according to a specific Revenue Model which sets forth the lot sizing per trade and nothing get added to or taken away from that lot sizing, or it will push outside of the Revenue Models limits. The model is tied directly to the performance of the system to a specified target. So, the model dictates what the Stop Loss should be and what the Limit should be for each trade. The RM drives all MM for me.
The system is a real-time application that makes auto-adjustments (in real-time) to the Limit Exit Order and the Stop Order â if a stop is being used. I can make manual adjustments to the system to allow for more aggressive Limit and Stop locations, or I can restrict them with manual adjustments when the pairs Magnitude drops-off from its normal size.
On the First Day Trade in the profile, there is a separate and distinct component within the system that is making that call each day at the start of my session which is 7pm Eastern. It is a separate Module within the system whose sole responsibility it so map-out the first move for the session. Whenever that move is opposing the primary move for the session (the Second Day Trade profile), the system will display the First Day Trade first and make that âActiveâ, followed by the Second Day Trade which will show as âPendingâ until triggered.
If I have a configuration for example where the Position Trade is Long and the First Day Trade is Long AND the market begins to move against my position slightly to the Short side (like right now), I relax â because I know that my Position Trade is ultimately going to win the battle. So, there are conditions under which the First Day Trade can even be called to screen and other conditions where it gets suppressed. That is why there is no Stop on the First Day Trade, as it is inline with the systemâs Position Trade profile which extends down-range from between 1 Month up to 7 Monthâs out. So, I always know what the systemâs
super extended long range probability resides.
So, push come to shove, my First Day Trade comes with a very high probability for at least a break-even outcome even if I have to hold it for longer than the profile time-line. This scenario does happen from time to time, but I'd rather conserve capital as much as possible, rather than drop it on the floor needlessly.
This is one example of the inner-system strategies being played out each day. All of it is coded into the system, however. All I have to do is enter the trades.
Hope this helps! Great questions! Another breath of fresh air around here.
