Real Forex Trades

[hoangmphung]

I guess each of your criteria is a low expectancy pattern and you assimilate all the outputs using some kind of a voting system. Such system would need no charts at all. Is my guess anywhere near reality?

Another question: You said your system continuously evaluate once a trade is on. How can you do that when you only use daily data for day trades, weekly data for weekly trades, etc? Obviously, you must go below the daily time frame here.

 

[fitrol]

You may have already answered this question, but I only briefly scanned the jounal.....I understand very well you concept and have come across many similar ones over the years, some too good to be true (& they were) and some that just about gave you an edge (which is all you need). Thus 2 questions:

Have the trades you posted made a profit since starting this journal?

Has your system made a profit over the last 3 mths?

Peace & Profit

 

[Blindside]

The style of the posting reminds me of someone. Do you post under the nickname of Tradevector at trade2win before?

 

[traderob]

Quote from Blindside:

The style of the posting reminds me of someone. Do you post under the nickname of Tradevector at trade2win before?

AKA scoresomepips on elitetrader. Registered: Jun 2004
Posts: 17
07-15-04 12:38 PM

I'm getting many requests from Elite Trader members’ wishing to become part of the LiveForexTrades small-group on Yahoo. However, your request for membership is not in the proper format.

. At the 100th member approved, the door will be closed.


There will be no further follow-ups to this invitation as I believe the instructions are now fairly clear.

The site is: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/LiveForexTrades

Regards,
Tradevector
(aka scoresomepips for ET purposes only)

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from RealForexTrades:

You can say it is impossible all day long, but where is YOUR proof that it is?

Avoiding my previous questions by discussing other issues and supplying more problematic figures does not prove you previous figures are Real.

You probably don't have any clues about what went wrong with your Unreal figures. Everyone trading EURUSD and dealing practically daily 24/7 with this kind of figures would have already known my proof naturally - (but fortunately) you don't.

 

[RealForexTrades]

Observations and Trade Profile Updates:

3/21/06

Got the return into my Entry zone between 2161 and 2175 at 2168 which just happens to be exactly half way between the two. Also got the recoil back down into the Short profiles right on schedule crashing through the Second Day Trade Limit Order of 2116 (which the system dynamically adjust down to 2105), and bringing the Swing Trade target Limit Order into better focus.

However, I did not make the trade as I did not set Limit Entry Order last night before calling it day – so I missed this beautifully executed trade. It was also slightly thrown off by the Benspeak news, but after seeing the results – the mildly hawkish Benspeak provided a relatively mild off-set of the First Day Trade which would have been Long, but instead went “Inactive”. So, overall - I’m very pleased with the way the system handled itself by maintaining the Swing Trade profile perfectly AND for providing the “plunge” that I said would occur today to the Short side for all the reasons that I stated earlier in another post before this one. (Profile updates below)

24hrs - From 3/20/06 to 3/21/06:

First Day Trade

Long
Entry 2161
Limit 2175
Stop None
Inactive


24hrs - From 3/20/06 to 3/21/06:

Second Day Trade

Sort
Entry 2176
Limit 2116
Stop 2219
Inactive


120hrs – From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06:

Swing

Short
Entry 2175
Limit 1979
Stop 2165 (protect 10)
Active


480hrs – From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06:

Position

Long
Entry 1931
Limit 2378
Stop 1856
Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)

 

[RealForexTrades]

Quote from hoangmphung:

I guess each of your criteria is a low expectancy pattern and you assimilate all the outputs using some kind of a voting system. Such system would need no charts at all. Is my guess anywhere near reality?

Actually, I don’t allow to much low expectancy into this model. In fact, there are no indicators allowed in the system that have a forward looking average probability of less than 70% accuracy and that would be considered extremely low for this system. I worked hard to get a good mix of both higher probability AND higher peak frequency. So, for me what that means is that the core level indicators in the system are not allowed to drop below 70% and still remain in the system, but they also have a unique quality about them in that they “relatively” short time-intervals between the maximum and minimum probability peaks. So, a 70% indicator today on 3/20/06 might have a good run-up through 4/20/06 to hit its peak probability output at 100% and then stay there for another 4 to 7 days before it begins its regression back down its normative scale to near the 70% level. At the same time, there are many more indicators that run nominally near the 99% level, but have longer peak periods. So, when you filter and synergize their output, you get a good smooth blended performance out of the system long-term.

That’s my little secret for getting “long-term” system performance that is reliable.

Now, it is not really a “voting system” in the normal way that you would think of one. I guess you could say that “I” did the voting in the design of the architecture and now all the system does is “dialog” with itself and in some ways, the incoming data from the market although that communication is a “one-way” dialog if you will – more like dictation rather than dialog on that level. But, there are components in the system that “share” input and output between each other and that has impact on the final verdict as to which signals get thrown to the GUI level, or final output level of the system. But, overall, your idea was not far away from what actually going on inside the system.

Quote from hoangmphung:

Another question: You said your system continuously evaluate once a trade is on. How can you do that when you only use daily data for day trades, weekly data for weekly trades, etc? Obviously, you must go below the daily time frame here.

No, as that would assume the “need” to use smaller bars of data. Remember, I only use Daily, Weekly, Monthly data and I use a live data feed in standard DDE Topics for OHLC and BID/ASK. Now, a run routine on the BID/ASK inside the real-time database to derive a blended close price depending on whether or not the Day Trade profile is Short of Long – however – the live feed gives the system what it needs to make the dynamic adjustments that it does in real-time. It is not a static system although it does use static historical data in conjunction with live real-time data from the market. So, in this version of the system, there is no need to go lower than the daily bar in live data. However, I might decide in a later version sometime down the road a bit to open up the system and expose it to smaller bars of data. Like I said, there is someone that already does that and he’s using the core concepts that I released from the 3rd generation of code a few years ago.

His system generates MORE signals than mine – LOL! I find that funny as the teacher has been “out signaled” by the student, but he has become a Teacher Himself along the way. However, no one has the 5th generation of code and that is where the new MetaBrain constructs reside and that is how the system “learns” to trade better over time.

Great intelligent questions! A breath of fresh air around here - Thanks.

 

[RealForexTrades]

Quote from fitrol:

Have the trades you posted made a profit since starting this journal?

You said that you briefly “scanned” the Journal. Two things (and don’t take this personally):

1) I would strongly suggest that you submit a complaint to the moderator to have those who scatter drive by shooting threads that have nothing to do with the actual trade journal itself, to be banned from posting inside this thread unless they have something on-topic and intelligent to add to the journal. That way, you won’t have to read through so much off-topic nonsense just to get answers to your very easily answered questions and I won’t have to answer the same questions about a dozen times. I think that would be a fair way to approach the problem of children who love to play inside of someone else’s journal with off-topic, go-no-where, do-nothing posts.

2) If you take a close look, you will see that I run a very organized Journal structure. I don’t do must things out of order and I come from a background where following protocols and rules actually mean something. So, for your benefit, you will find that my journal entries are organized and structured for ease of reading and comprehension. I’ve been doing this for years and I think I’ve worked out a way such that just about any 10 year old could follow my journal and know what’s going on at just about any time.

When you look back at the journal you see a format such as this:

24hrs - From 3/20/06 to 3/21/06:

First Day Trade

Long
Entry 2161
Limit 2175
Stop None
Inactive


You will find three (3) trade profiles embedded into one outline as I stated in my first post in this thread. This is for ease of tracking. I update each profile that the system updates with relevant changes in near-real-time when I can (I have other things to do daily as well). My system’s update time where it rolls over to the next daily bar of data, is 7pm Eastern as I’ve stated several other times before.

Under the “Stop” insert in each profile, you will find the trade status insert with a label of either: Active, Inactive, Pending or Closed. Note that the only reason the very first trade was not labeled “Closed” was due to the timing of the system update being at 7pm Eastern and Ben’s speech ALSO being at 7pm Eastern. I trade LIVE CASH accounts. So, my very first priority is to protect equity – period. Everything else is a distant second. So, when Ben speaks – I listen – especially when I have an open position that his words could easily destroy. So, you don’t see the very first trade with a “Close” trade status showing the number of pips gained on the trade.

However, you do see a post that does show that I closed the position, what time the position was closed and at what price. That trade was closed for 15 pips. That was my first Day trade this week. The Swing Trade profile shows you that it is still “Active”. All you have to do to know its pip total status is subtract the current EURUSD Close Price from the Swing Trade Profile Entry Price to get the current near-real-time pip P/L. Right now, the Swing Trade Profile is up 85 pips and saw a maximum of 100 pips unrealized thus far this week.

I missed today’s trade which for me began yesterday in the Day Trade Profiles due to Benspeak prematurely downing the price at the open of the last session. The price did move back into the Entry Region that I spoke of yesterday, but I also did not Enter a Limit Entry order to capture it. Had I done so, that trade would have gone on to net approximately 70 pips total as of 12:58pm Eastern time today. However, I am not counting that trade because I did not make it – but the system did perform inline with expectations considering the Ben small mildly hawkish event.

Quote from fitrol:

Has your system made a profit over the last 3 mths?

Peace & Profit

Yes. Take a look at the “Closed” Position Trade for this Month in the outline of the trade profiles. Also, for the Month of January, the Position Trade net 505 pips. For the Month of Feb, the Position Trade net 297 pips. January, February and March totals = 1,056 net positive pips. Three consecutive months using the new version of the system with zero failures in the Position profiles, or the Swing profiles.

I do not trade Position profiles routinely. I’m a Day Trader by nature and I can capture more pips that way simply because the system will call both Long AND Short trades throughout an entire month where the Position Trade is only single sided. However, I will use the Position Trade Profiles whenever I need to take a vacation or step away from my trading screen on business for prolonged periods of time.

That’s when I will use the long range missiles found in the Position profiles. I’ll use the Swing profiles whenever I cannot entirely focus on Day trading during the course of any given week, but I do not routinely use Swing profiles either. But, it is nice to have these profiles in reserve when I need them. It is always good to have more than one way to skin a cat and continue the revenue flow in this business.

Peace and Profit - I like that.

 

[RealForexTrades]

This won't fly with me. You can try it with someone else, but this kind of illogical trolling won't work here. Here is exactly what you asked me to produce:

Quote from OddTrader:
Simply impossibel! Do you have a chart of this year's equity curve?

I told you directly that if you can prove how and why your “equity chart” has any impact on my previous statements, to produce it. You failed to produce a single fact that supports your claim of “impossible”. Look, I make the claim that this system is rock solid. So, how do I support that claim? By opening up a Can of Trade Journal on people like you who think that just because YOU have not found a certain level of success in trading the Forex, that such a level of success simply cannot exist. Everywhere I go, this system makes total and complete liars out of those who think that High Performance Trading is a myth. Myth – busted. And, I’ve been online busting this Myth for YEARS.

Now, again – if you have “your equity curve” chart that disproves what I’ve said – post it – exactly the same way that I’m posting in this journal in real-time/near-real-time.

Quote from OddTrader:
What leverage is used when trading these four systems (with 15 accounts, why?)?

I gave you on a silver platter not just the “leverage” I use, but I gave you the entire thesis behind why I use a Revenue Model approach to trading AND the parameters of the Revenue Model itself. In other words, I handed to you directly on a silver platter a tremendous head start in proving my calculations wrong! Did you take that Revenue Model and run your own numbers to see if the net percent in equity growth compared to your own? No. So, what did you do? You followed up with a post today that basically said, “I’m in water way above my head here and I need to find a quick exit out of this thread.” That’s basically all you have said here and nothing more.

Why 15 accounts? That single question let’s me know volumes about your knowledge of this business beyond the basic Retail Account level. If you knew anything about this business, then you would know why these lots levels cannot be effectively traded through mere Retail Forex Trading Accounts and why having more than one Institutional Account mixed with Retail Accounts is necessary.

Soon, my biggest problem will be in getting my money “to” the market using conventional third-party clearing sources. Soon, I’m going to be faced with the decision to either become a Bank, or Private Trading Firm with direct access clearing operating strictly in-house accounts (nothing from the outside whatsoever), or throttling down my current trading activity through third-parties. I am rapidly approaching a point where I’m going to experience critical mass.

Where the industry current third-party clearing infrastructure (direct access) won’t be able to support what I need to do. In order to solve that problem, I’m going to either have to initialize a private bank (which I’ve already begun the research into) or initialize a private trading firm that clears through various banks on its own in-house accounts.

If I’ve said it once then I’ve said it a thousand times before: There are traders and then there are Traders.

 

[RealForexTrades]

Quote from Blindside:

The style of the posting reminds me of someone. Do you post under the nickname of Tradevector at trade2win before?

I think I've stated several times now that I've been on lots of boards over the years. I also think that if you are a trader yourself, you've done the same thing. Or, you could have only posted here, on Elite Trader and have never posted on any other board related to trading. I'm not sure about you, but most traders I know have been on every major trading board within the known universe, but those are just the people I know in this business. I've used the same username on some boards, and a different username on others. Sometimes, I find that the username I want has already been taken - so I pick another.

The usernames I've used mostly coincide with the name of the prototype under development at that time. I’ve used other usernames when appropriate when I don’t want to attract attention to my trading system. People who watched my system grow and develop over the years already know this. I don’t want to get emailed or PM’d all the time by people looking for a “Mentor”, “Private Fund Manager”, etc. I get asked those questions all the time in PM’s and Email and my answer is always the same: Thank you, but no thank – I’m not interested.

I’m not interested in being a fund manager, private trader of private accounts, guru or mentor – although, there is a small pure research group that has spun-off where they are attempting to develop their own trading system using some of the concepts that I am able to share in public. It is their own group and they are responsible for its outcome. They are a bunch a highly intelligent and very motivated people and those are typically the one’s who find outside the box concepts that work for them privately over the long run. Those are the kinds of people who typically end up becoming Traders of the First Order. I’ve agreed to meet with them periodically and share idea with them, but the group belongs to them, not me and it is for Research purposes only into new and innovative trading technologies.

So, I’ve been on board for years posting trades, helping newbies, discussing trading ideas and concepts – but – I’m not giving away anything anymore. I’ve done that with my earlier work and I’ve even taken my personal time to train the people that I just handed over my work to out of the goodness of my being. I like helping people become better traders. However, over the years – the system I use became more effective and at some point it became something bizarre – something I had never seen before. So, I decided that I would no longer give away the essentials that make the system unique, but that I could still talk about certain concepts that set the system apart from all others using conventional TA. So, that’s what I’ve been doing from time to time on various boards with the intent to hopefully inspire newbies to get outside of their own FEARS about trading and start to explore Market Data in ways that they never have before.

Mine is to hopefully inspire people to star their own small research groups, get outside the box of convention, study market data from angles that they have never approached it before and start realizing that in the Forex, there is an enormous amount of stored up potential energy in the data just waiting to be released for those with the eyes to study it in the right way.

I’m already a successful trader and have been making a living at this for years. I’m done making a living in this business. I don’t have to trade another single currency unit ever again, if I don’t want to. What I’m doing now in the business is not really for me. What I do now is mostly for other people far outside of the trading world who need help in other areas of their life, but cannot get it. Help with medical, educational, destroyed families and extremely poor living conditions. That’s why I continue to trade. To fund, start and support those projects long-term.

I personally don’t need another dime. Trading has made me extremely wealthy, but those other projects require a lot more cash flow and that’s why I continue to trade. Trading provides more cash flow at a faster rate of speed than ANYTHING I could possibly imagine doing.

The site that you referred to is here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18626

The purpose there was the exact same purpose for here, except now I’m in full Production Trading. There, I was in either Beta, or Test mode – sometimes using a tiny cash account and sometimes using a demo account. When I Test, I use a small cash account. When I Beta, I always use a demo account as a routine protocol.

And, yes – I am “Tradevector”, but much more importantly, I’m the original ”StealthTrader”. When you look at the pictures of the system and you think about where “StealthTrader” began almost 6 years ago – it should send chills down your spine, because it does for me every time I think about. It has been a very long road, and the vision that I had back then, has finally come to fruition.

A super high-performance trading technology with routine/common daily accuracy that everybody else years ago said: ”Could Not Be Done”.

Where are the naysyers now?

Lesson for Newbies:

If there are any newbies on this board, never EVER let anyone tell you what “cannot be done”, or “what’s impossible”. Your vision might be attainable IF you are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to get you there. Along the way in this business, you could make yourself and your family very wealthy, but more importantly you might be able to open doors for others who otherwise might not ever have a door opened to them in their lifetime far outside the world of trading.

Newbies, leave the small minds behind, while you reach for your destiny. In this business, you can do some pretty amazing things!