Quote from tatsimon:
i see your 24 hour trade has around 1 to 1 profit/loss ratio.
What % of your 24H trades are winners
ty
1 to 1 is not actually correct for the system average. I donât know how you are going about calculating profit/loss ratio. My Stops always change dynamically as the system sees fit and the targets will always be dynamically changed as well. But, I do have a system wide âaverageâ pip value as well as a system wide average âdraw downâ value. Right now, the ratio is 67/28, which is a net profit expectation running 2.392 times the expected draw down per trade.
My minimum acceptable ratio if 1.5, so right now the system is really out performing expectations. These numbers change with every update of the system each 24 hour period. But, as long as it does not drop below 1.5, Iâm ok. Anything below that, and I place a moratorium on all trades until the systemâs âHealthâ returns to normal. In fact, this ratio is the systemâs Health Indicator. It is the final go/no go indicator that I glance at before entering the order.
However, to answer your other question the system (and actual trade statements) current running at 100% accuracy on the 24hr level for the past 47 trades and only 94.12% for the past 280 which is slightly down a bit from last week because of this silly little trade today that wants to take its time getting to my target.
I donât think my target will get struck today and I based accuracy in four (4) different dimensions: Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability. Those are the components that are most critical for any trader, but they have special meaning to me as I donât see anybody in the business talking about these concepts in synergy or their significance to day trading in general and/or specific. So, I have four (4) measures of âaccuracyâ with âMagnitudeâ being the one that controls âto targetâ accuracy, which is a bit off today, but was lethal last week in another trade journal that I posted on another site.
I actually have been between testing (a mixture of real and demo trading) and production trading (real cash) for the past few months since late 2005 and I have various trade journals around the net. Some were visual and some were text based journals. So, when you ask me a question abut âcurrentâ accuracy, I have to cut through all my previous âtestâ or âbetaâ trades and only count the live âproductionâ level trades. Just FYI.
