Real Estates Black Hole Miami Condos 2008 To 2010
- Thread starter the gardner
- Start date
While it's true that SoFla has come in pretty hard it's also true that it was NEVER that expensive to begin with. Miami/Lauderdale/Boca are priced about the same as Chicago. SoFla is at a deep discount to Boston, DC etal and SoFla is a FRACTION of New York, SF and L.A.
The "troubled" buildings in Miami are either downtown on the river or on Miami's edgy northside. Not prime stuff. Cutten we're talking about 400k condos that have tumbled to let's say 250k. Unless you think those units are going to 80k it's not exactly the great depression. In other words a 2 bedroom condo in Miami sells FOR LESS than a 1 bedroom tenement in the Bronx.
Here's an example. So yea I'll stick my neck out and say Miami is closer to a bottom than some bubblesque plunge. Try buying this in the U.K. for 135k pounds.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listi...990b5c&lid=1093915643&lsn=9&srcnt=1128#Detail
The "troubled" buildings in Miami are either downtown on the river or on Miami's edgy northside. Not prime stuff. Cutten we're talking about 400k condos that have tumbled to let's say 250k. Unless you think those units are going to 80k it's not exactly the great depression. In other words a 2 bedroom condo in Miami sells FOR LESS than a 1 bedroom tenement in the Bronx.
Here's an example. So yea I'll stick my neck out and say Miami is closer to a bottom than some bubblesque plunge. Try buying this in the U.K. for 135k pounds.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listi...990b5c&lid=1093915643&lsn=9&srcnt=1128#Detail
http://www.housingtracker.net/
Click on price and inventory on the right upper corner. You will see that inventory in Miami is highest, at about 15 times that in San Jose
Click on price and inventory on the right upper corner. You will see that inventory in Miami is highest, at about 15 times that in San Jose
Have you seen downtown/brickell area? Theres quite a few high risers that they aren't even working on anymore. Just giant shells that they've given up on. Hve a feeling you'll be seeing either euro or south american developers coming in and scooping those up for 10-20 cents on the dollar just to finish them.
go to www.capitalatbrickell.com a fantastic project
I am simply amazed at the price drops we have started to see in San Diego. For instance 3000 sq feet in San Elijo just purchased for 500,000. (san marcos carlsbad border)
Many are starting to realize that Condos are now selling at prices - which can be covered by rent.
My brother was about to buy one as short term housing and then rental investment.
The problem is that so many Condos are for sale and so many of the Homeowners Association Liens are going to be wiped out by foreclosure - we have no idea how these Condos are going to maintain themselves. Are they going to triple the HOA fees on the owners who pay?
Basically the market can not right itself to all the people who don't belong in houses with high mortgages get kicked out. Then prices will deflate to where a family person making family person money can live in a family house in a nice school district.
Then you can make adjustments for location. So maybe Carlsbad is 10% higher than in should be - etc.
You have can't have people making 100k a year with 800k mortgages plus 1000 a month in property taxes plus other housing costs.
That sort of stupidity can only be supported by liar loans and loose lending standards.
What will make it even worse - is that literally half the guys I meet in my neighborhood are in some way connected to the Real Estate industry.
Software support, managment, sales, loans legal etc. They are almost all losing their jobs or taking massive pay cuts. Their wives are going back to work.
Based on my experience last year. That will last about one year (if you have 2-3 young kids) after that there will be a divorce or a sale and downsize.) After about a year the women is so worn out from working she no longer gives a shit about living in a great house. She will either call the guy a failure and divorce him. Or she will be rational realize she is also a failure for pushing the guy into overpriced houses and regroup.
Growth industries -
Divorce Law
Foreclosure Law
Marriage Counseling
Bankruptcy
Realtor and loan broker job placements
Property management (of foreclosures)
Collection agents and attorneys
Cost cutters
Kids education supplement organizations
Unemployment check distributors
Democratic party workers
Value menu creators
Cheap entertainment distributors
Within 7 years I predict many illegals will be chased out of California. Arnold just proposed 10% across the board cuts because of the 14 -20 billion short fall. CA will not longer permit the liberals to spend billions on non citizens.
Just watch. I am already seeing people gripe about cuts in the education system.
Many are starting to realize that Condos are now selling at prices - which can be covered by rent.
My brother was about to buy one as short term housing and then rental investment.
The problem is that so many Condos are for sale and so many of the Homeowners Association Liens are going to be wiped out by foreclosure - we have no idea how these Condos are going to maintain themselves. Are they going to triple the HOA fees on the owners who pay?
Basically the market can not right itself to all the people who don't belong in houses with high mortgages get kicked out. Then prices will deflate to where a family person making family person money can live in a family house in a nice school district.
Then you can make adjustments for location. So maybe Carlsbad is 10% higher than in should be - etc.
You have can't have people making 100k a year with 800k mortgages plus 1000 a month in property taxes plus other housing costs.
That sort of stupidity can only be supported by liar loans and loose lending standards.
What will make it even worse - is that literally half the guys I meet in my neighborhood are in some way connected to the Real Estate industry.
Software support, managment, sales, loans legal etc. They are almost all losing their jobs or taking massive pay cuts. Their wives are going back to work.
Based on my experience last year. That will last about one year (if you have 2-3 young kids) after that there will be a divorce or a sale and downsize.) After about a year the women is so worn out from working she no longer gives a shit about living in a great house. She will either call the guy a failure and divorce him. Or she will be rational realize she is also a failure for pushing the guy into overpriced houses and regroup.
Growth industries -
Divorce Law
Foreclosure Law
Marriage Counseling
Bankruptcy
Realtor and loan broker job placements
Property management (of foreclosures)
Collection agents and attorneys
Cost cutters
Kids education supplement organizations
Unemployment check distributors
Democratic party workers
Value menu creators
Cheap entertainment distributors
Within 7 years I predict many illegals will be chased out of California. Arnold just proposed 10% across the board cuts because of the 14 -20 billion short fall. CA will not longer permit the liberals to spend billions on non citizens.
Just watch. I am already seeing people gripe about cuts in the education system.