Real Estate value doubles every 9 years? - need help

Quote from Zigrivers:

I told him I was certain that real estate does decline in value, but I have had difficulty finding charts that track the value of real estate over any real length of time (I found charts that display the last 4 or 5 years, but figured I would need something that showed the last 50 years or so to demonstrate that there is risk in what he is doing).
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Here's a link to a chart and statistics published by the National Association of Realtors.

http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm

Note that the median real estate price has never declined in the period shown on a nationwide basis. There have been times when particular areas have declined, typically in response to an employment type of problem at the time. An example is Texas back in the 80's when oil crashed, people in the oil business lost their jobs.

But nationwide prices have never declined. In fact, in the early 80's interest rates went to 20%...note there was no nationwide decline.

Just because it has never happened does not assure that it won't. In fact, I think this time may well be different. But I am not expecting a "crash" either.

OldTrader
 
Quote from Zigrivers:

I told him I was certain that real estate does decline in value, but I have had difficulty finding charts that track the value of real estate over any real length of time (I found charts that display the last 4 or 5 years, but figured I would need something that showed the last 50 years or so to demonstrate that there is risk in what he is doing).
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I believe this link shows Japan's housing bubble:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/e/jreidata/a_shi/index.htm

Click on any of the links and you will see negative percentage growth in real estate prices for the past 10 years. Not that Japan is similar to the US, but it just shows that real estate prices can fall, and can fall a lot. If I am reading some of these charts correctly, it looks like some Japanese real estate fell 80% and is still falling.
 
"Buy land, they're not making it anymore"


Single family houses were a big investment a few years ago (prolly when your dad got into it)....nowadays stuff like that, and residential real estate as a whole, is becoming a more difficult investment....70% of people are already in real estate....its more difficult to find good tenents and evict the deadbeats. The reliable tenents are probably smart enough to know they should own.

I don't really know why somebody would try renting a single family house rather than a duplex, triplex, or fourplex (loan criteria similiar)....unless you've read too much of that asshole robert allen. Not knocking your dad one bit...knocking robert allen, yes.

There is info available on gov. sites about the ave. price of 1 family homes historically. A while back I remember looking at this info and yeah, it always goes up, lol.

Inflation adjusted, I'm not sure what it'd look like....as well as adjusted for your area (very big in real estate, obviously). I think dollar for dollar, I remember real estate ave's dropping marginally once in like the past 100 years.
 
Double in 9 years?

That is the norm I guess if not in a bubble. But I have witnessed a property market bust where 9 years after the bubble, prices remained BELOW their peak. It is similar to buying the stock market in 1929 - 20 yrs. after prices still remained below peak. But who knows if this is the peak? Just be prepared to buy a home now and have the same price 9 years down the road.

I used to flip homes too. I was already a stock trader back then and the market actually helped me predict and dump 2 homes (speculative investment). The market back then was a leading indicator (although i do not know if the stock market will still be a leading indicator this time around). Anyway when the homebuilder stocks plummeted I rushed to sell a home and a propery. Six months after the market plummeted it was almost imposible to sell real estate - since there were no buyers. It is like trading without a bid and you together with institutions are at the ask rushing to unload.

The recent correction in homebuilder stocks is nothing. That ain't it yet. Homebuilder stocks are still putting up a fight. When the d day comes (if it comes), it will be undeniable. I have seen it before.
 
Quote from sprstpd:

I believe this link shows Japan's housing bubble:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/e/jreidata/a_shi/index.htm

Click on any of the links and you will see negative percentage growth in real estate prices for the past 10 years. Not that Japan is similar to the US, but it just shows that real estate prices can fall, and can fall a lot. If I am reading some of these charts correctly, it looks like some Japanese real estate fell 80% and is still falling.
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Excellent link. Should be very sobering for those who have the "prices can't go down since they ain't making any more of it" type thinking. I doubt if they are making any more land in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area...check out the price falls

http://www.reinet.or.jp/e/jreidata/a_shi/im/0412_51.gif

I notice that in other markets where supply is fixed e.g Georgian silver, Van Gogh paintings etc, prices often plumment as well as soar.

In any case, land in the US is plentiful. I read somewhere that you could put the entire US population into Texas and it still wouldn't be as densely populated as the UK.
 
Quote from Visaria:


In any case, land in the US is plentiful. I read somewhere that you could put the entire US population into Texas and it still wouldn't be as densely populated as the UK. [/B]
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you can buy all the land you want in parts of my state for <300 an acre.
 
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