Real Estate Trends

Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Any other members of ET who live in markets where the RE prices and sales have stabilized and/or rising?

In my local area (Washoe County, NV) prices have appeared to stabilize and sales have gone up 4 consecutive months in a row.

Toll Bros, Horton, Lennar are all back in business around here. Lot's of crews and machinery are back at work.

Feedback please.
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Hey Doc. In Ft. Lauderdale (coastal-I don't venture more than 1 mile off the ocean) there's still tons for sale although the homes that are "priced to sell" find buyers. OTH, there's properties that I consider "fair value" and they're sitting unsold. P/E's are still stretched here. Rentals are soft and buyers are confronted with stiff property taxes and difficult to find/afford storm coverage.

As you know I'm a SoCal fanatic and the diff between L.A. and here is striking. It's all about rents. Whereas a 2br condo on the Westside is 4k a month a 2br in SoBe is half that. Re-sale pricing reflects the zero job base here.

IMO, and I don't say this to be a racist-socially problomatic retirement locales are vulnarable. A guy will put up with L.A.'s gang infested bs for salaries of 10-20k a month but the demographics of SoFla are scaring buyers away. That's why "lily-white" locales like Tahoe, Naples Fl, North County Ca, even coastal South Carolina (check out how friggin' pumped Hilton Head, Sullivan Island and Isle of Palms are) they're hardly down ticking. The Brazilinization of America continues. Seperation from the unwashed masses is increasingly important and reflected in widening spreads but seperation costs big money.
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Is that Tampa ....Pensacola ..what?
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Doc Z,

I live in Pcola and haven't really noticed any significant increase in home sales. I work in mtgs FWIW.
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

Is that Tampa ....Pensacola ..what?
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They just said W Florida. Wasn't paying attention when they used a specific house as an example. So, I don't know which city.
 
But you were alive when there was a difference bewteen the Western Gulf Coast of Florida and the panhandle of Rivera?

Any current individual area information helps. Thanks

Quote from Jayford:

They just said W Florida. Wasn't paying attention when they used a specific house as an example. So, I don't know which city.
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Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

But you were alive when there was a difference bewteen the Western Gulf Coast of Florida and the panhandle of Rivera?

Any current individual area information helps. Thanks
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I have no idea what that means.

iI you really need to know which city they were referring to, should be easy enough to look it up. They said that inventory has gone from 28 months to 9 months, from this time last year to now. Find the W Florida city with 9 months of inventory.
 
In San diego median price was down about 30% or more - but sales were up 3-5% last month

Lots of transactions in the conforming loan range. People are using 3% down VA laons to get family houses which are at steep discounts in Chula Vista -Otay Mesa - Vista and some other areas.

700 thou and above is very slow because few can qualify for the loans.

Prices are not droping fast enough to balance out the market because the owners have jobs and refinanced loans. People who have refinanced seconds are most likely get hit by deficiency judgments and income tax from the Ca tax board. They are just putting off the day of judgment as long as they can.

There are many homes in foreclosure without for sale signs in front. There will be a massive wave of foreclosures in North County over the next six months and other farily expensive (as pabst would say lily white) family home areas.

For instance in the subdivision where I live 28% of the people bought houses with 100% stated loan arrangements. Prices are off 20% or more from two years ago. How long before the whole neighborhood is up for sale?

Additionally, my former law partner now runs a vulture fund which buys properties in bulk from lenders at 3-25 % on the dollar. His first two "tranhces" of investments returned at a per annum rate of well over 60%. He is now funding a few hundred million for his next round.

He says the lenders are going to do massive price cutting on their REOs in the fall because they will have to clean up their books by Feb 2009. If they can not unload their properties by then their ability to lend will be restricted and so will their bond ratings.

His prediction is a very large crush on CA prices in the fall. He said some of the lenders inventory is not even on the market yet.

I know this sems like speculation. But his predictions last fall helped me make some good money recently.
 
Chula Vista and Otay Mesa are absolute dumps. Even Vista is a meheeco shantytown north of I-78. Those homes aren't even worth $200,000.
 
Thank you to everyone has contributed to this thread. Please continue to do so. I think we can all benefit from our own personal anecdotal stories.

Any Oregon Coast or a Mid-west farms out there?
 
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