real estate LA - banging my head against the wall

Quote from Trader5287:

The answer is it can't keep going because affordability is at generational lows and these smug sellers have only unrealized paper gains if the buyers wont bid.


Good luck.

god i wish that were true. ive lived on the west side of los angeles for 20 years and the demand for houses, condos and appartments does not seem to have let up, seems to be growing at regular pace if you ask me but im no expert. i think at best prices here will stabalize and level off as the rest of the country declines...after a few years or however long it takes for a recovery....they will begin climbing again.
 
I have read that real estate prices have already started to rebound in London and Sydney. U.S. real estate lagged on the way down so...
 
MEDIAN price of a house here in Santa Barbara was $1.5 million last year, but has now DROPPED :D Ha to $1.25 million. Better make your moves now to catch the pullback. :D
 
Well, I've been watching the foreclosure auctions on the S.B. courthouse steps and the volume has increased tremendously this past year. There's easily 2-3x as many homes being auctioned off this year compared to last. But I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet, I think there's still a lot more room for things to fall.

I think the signal for me will be when foreclosures stop increasing, like when there's a steady stream of 20 houses/week that's not changing. Then when it starts dropping to 15/week, I might pick up a property for cheap, they've been 25-40% off retail mostly. :)

Here's some data: C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.9% in July. You'll notice that S.B. County & So.Coast (the inhabited areas) are hit the worst in all of California, which is to be expected since it had the most rapid rise as well. The end is nigh, repent!
 
Quote from fecal_tdr:

I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that most commercial investments in places like LA and NYC have cap rates between 5-7%. I heard this was due to the weak dollar and low interest rates in the past few years. Maybe the trend is changing? I would like to here your thoughts.

5-7% cap rate is typical I agree. I have seen places like baldwin park and eagle rock with higher cap rates.

I think, that these are safer buys and with rents increasing, this could help pad any sell offs assuming you really want to be in RE.



I like the lofts in down town but I think they have overbuilt and not sure if its a good buy at $530/ a sq ft. It doesnt break even unless you put down half the price of the home as a downpayment, but future growth is promising.


your thoughts?
 
Quote from DannoXYZ:

Well, I've been watching the foreclosure auctions on the S.B. courthouse steps and the volume has increased tremendously this past year. There's easily 2-3x as many homes being auctioned off this year compared to last. But I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet, I think there's still a lot more room for things to fall.

I think the signal for me will be when foreclosures stop increasing, like when there's a steady stream of 20 houses/week that's not changing. Then when it starts dropping to 15/week, I might pick up a property for cheap, they've been 25-40% off retail mostly. :)

Here's some data: C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.9% in July. You'll notice that S.B. County & So.Coast (the inhabited areas) are hit the worst in all of California, which is to be expected since it had the most rapid rise as well. The end is nigh, repent!


How do I keep a pulse on the foreclosure market? Where do I go? What data should I ask for or look up?

thank you
 
Quote from DannoXYZ:

Here's some data: C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.9% in July. You'll notice that S.B. County & So.Coast (the inhabited areas) are hit the worst in all of California, which is to be expected since it had the most rapid rise as well. The end is nigh, repent!
Thanks for sharing that. :) The prices have dropped even more than I thought. Actually I was being facetious when I said don't miss the pullback. :)
 
Quote from BCE:

Thanks for sharing that. :) The prices have dropped even more than I thought. Actually I was being facetious when I said don't miss the pullback. :)

You are mistaken - prices have increased. Read carefully:

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.9% in July,
median price up 5.1% from year ago
 
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