Real Estate is dying? Investment-wise what is the next Asset Class Du Jour?

[onewaypockets]

Quote from Smart Money:

I'm not good at reading graphs. I'm trying to figure out how much has the guy that is still living in his house which he purchased in 1990 at the peak of the market lost?

Someone that bought in 1990 in the Bay area (or interchange any metro California area) would have lost about 30% at the bottom. Also, if they bought in the peak in 1990 they would have had to wait almost ten years to break even.

Quite a long time to wait, especially not knowing if you EVER will come out on the property. With life changes such as divorce, severe illness, layoffs (a big deal in Silicon Valley), job transfers, etc....you can see why so many people that buy at bubble tops sell for a loss or go bankrupt along the long road of a decade or more.

With any asset class, entry is everything. You make your money going in by positioning correctly.

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from onewaypockets:

Someone that bought in 1990 in the Bay area (or interchange any metro California area) would have lost about 30% at the bottom. Also, if they bought in the peak in 1990 they would have had to wait almost ten years to break even.

Quite a long time to wait, especially not knowing if you EVER will come out on the property. With life changes such as divorce, severe illness, layoffs (a big deal in Silicon Valley), job transfers, etc....you can see why so many people that buy at bubble tops sell for a loss or go bankrupt along the long road of a decade or more.

With any asset class, entry is everything. You make your money going in by positioning correctly.

It was a trick question. I asked how much they lost if they didn't sell their house since buying in it in 1990. The answer is that they didn't lose anything. You only lose if you sell. I don't live there, but I know that if my house was suddenly worth half of its value, it wouldn't make me go bankrupt. I wouldn't even notice it because the payment wouldn't change. Sometimes you have to sell because of a divorce, change of job, etc., but I guess thats par for the course out there. You take all kinds of risks when you move out to the west coast...wild fires, earthquakes, mudslides, aggressive coyotes, rampaging celebrities, freaky real estate cycles, etc.

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from illiquid:

Always sounds funny when people who think they don't discriminate take the time to describe how they don't.

That is a hoot. Take my wife, pleeez! ba dum da!

Is this on?

Whats really funny to me is when a guy takes the time to share his perspective on an investment topic along with some of the techniques that have make him good money only to have some sad little boys resort to flaming. These are the kind of little boys who think their running dialogue in a movie theater is funny to the audience.

 

[risktaker]

Hey, if you're so long-term as you claim, what are you doing in what is essentially a daytrader's forum?

The 2 don't mix very well.

Maybe you could join a Warren Buffet type forum and discuss buy and hold there.

Quote from Smart Money:

That is a hoot. Take my wife, pleeez! ba dum da!

Is this on?

Whats really funny to me is when a guy takes the time to share his perspective on an investment topic along with some of the techniques that have make him good money only to have some sad little boys resort to flaming. These are the kind of little boys who think their running dialogue in a movie theater is funny to the audience.

 

[spect8or]

Smart, I hope you've been rubbing in your skin thickening ointment, or at least got yourself a fire proof jacket handy.

 

[illiquid]

I just meant funny as in ironic. Anyways, I apologize, I didn't mean anything personal, and appreciate you taking the time to post your wisdom about the RE market and minorities in general.

Let's try to keep this thread on topic. What's the rental income psf for Uncle Tom's cabin these days?

 

[EqtTrdr]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041220/ap_on_re_us/affordable_rent

 

[ElectricSavant]

After reading that link, buying and selling Real estate for a profit is a still a question of demographics for me. I suppose to make the statement that RE is dead all over the country might be bold.

P.S. I would never want to be a landlord of a portfolio of single family homes. Commercial yes, if the numbers are right...Apartment buildings, yes, expecially during rising interest rates...

Michael B.

Quote from EqtTrdr:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041220/ap_on_re_us/affordable_rent

 

[Smart Money]

Quote from illiquid:

I just meant funny as in ironic. Anyways, I apologize, I didn't mean anything personal, and appreciate you taking the time to post your wisdom about the RE market and minorities in general.

Let's try to keep this thread on topic. What's the rental income psf for Uncle Tom's cabin these days?

I did overreact a little. I apologize also.

 

[kowboy]

Just started reading this:

"The Next Great Bubble Boom" by Harry S.Dent

He uses Demographics to predict stock market and real estate valuations and correlates this with past historical cycles in the markets.