U.S. leading indicators fall for 5th straight month -
Thursday, November 18, 2004 3:34:36 PM
http://www.afxpress.com
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The U.S. economy is losing steam, the Conference Board said Thursday, reporting that the index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in October, the fifth straight decrease. The string of declines "is a clear signal that the economy is losing steam, and may start off 2005 with a relatively weak pace of economic activity," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the board. A separate business confidence survey "suggests that worries about where the economy is heading may cause some strategic plans to be put on hold," Goldstein said. "And the signal will be much stronger if consumers turn more cautious, just as the holiday season approaches." The September leading index was revised lower to a 0.3 percent decline, from a 0.1 percent drop previously
Seven of the 10 leading indicators fell in October, led by consumer expectations, money supply and interest rate spreads. Vendor performance, factory workweek, building permits and new orders for capital goods also contributed to the decline in the leading index. Three indicators gained ground in October: initial claims for jobless benefits, orders for consumer goods and stock prices. In the past six months, the leading index has dropped 0.7 percent, with three of the 10 indicators strengthening. The coincident index rose 0.3 percent in October, with all four indicators rising. The lagging index increased 0.2 percent in October
Home prices may drive people out of California
Although Californians deeply value their quality of life in the Golden State, a surprising number say that the cost of housing could drive them away, according to a new survey released Thursday by the Public Policy Institute of California in collaboration with the Hewlett, Irvine, and Packard Foundations.
Overall, Californians express grave concerns about the cost of housing and see little upside to the run-up in housing prices. One quarter (24 percent) of Californians today say
the cost of housing in their part of California is forcing them to seriously consider moving - to another part of the state or away from California altogether.
This sentiment is highest among coastal residents, and many are acting on it: A recent PPIC study found that coastal Californians are driving much of the Central Valley's population boom. Much of the Sacramento area's growth in the past decade has been attributed to such migration.
Nearly all Californians (94 percent) perceive that home values have been increasing in their region, with 84 percent saying they have increased a lot in recent years. Some see broad benefits to skyrocketing housing prices - most residents (82 percent) view it as at least somewhat important to the economic vitality of their part of the state. But they express greater ambivalence about this phenomenon as it relates to them personally. Specifically, 49 percent of Californians say that increasing average home values in their part of the state are a bad thing for them and their families, while 41 percent call it a good thing.
One reason for this perspective? Californians worry about the fallout of increasing prices for younger family members. Three in four adults (77 percent) say they are at least somewhat concerned that the cost of housing will prevent the younger generation in their family from buying a home in their region of the state. Moreover, one in three (31 percent) cite a more immediate effect of housing costs - that is, it places a financial strain on their households today.
"Californians understand the economic value of our hyper real estate market, but they also feel the pinch of high prices," said PPIC Survey Director Mark Baldassare. A majority of Californians (55 percent) view the availability of affordable housing as a big problem in their region today, placing it just below traffic congestion (59 percent) and far above the lack of well-paying jobs (35 percent), population growth (35 percent), and air pollution (30 percent) as a regional concern. Orange and San Diego County residents are the most likely (63 percent) and Central Valley residents the least likely (39 percent) to see affordable housing as a big problem in their area.
Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,502 California adult residents interviewed between Oct. 21 and Nov. 1. Interviews were conducted in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, or Vietnamese. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2 percent.
http://piggington.com/
"The moving company that moved [my former business partner] told him that for every truck moving a household into California, the moving companies were sending 4 truckloads out. 'Out', as in out of state."
