Real Estate boom of 2013

[Arnie]

Quote from peilthetraveler:

Sacramento y.o.y.(as of november) Home prices up 23%
Phoenix Home prices up 40%
San Francisco Home prices up 17.3%
Houston, TX Home prices up 39.2%

You can check your own market trends on Trulia.com

These type statistics are meaningless. Its like saying, in a room half full of men and half full of women, that on average they each have one ovary and one testicle.

You need to define your data set. Trulia and Zillow don't do that. They just aggregate ALL sales, regardless of type. If you really want to see what's happening, then track arms length, market sales between typically motivated buyers and sellers.

Almost every market in the country shows some improvement in median sales prices due to fewer REO and short sales. But that doesn't necessarily mean median values are increasing, you just have fewer distressed sales.

If you want to see how valuable that Trulia data is, take your houses Trulia estimate to the bank and see how much they will lend you.

 

[brokershopping]

Maybe it's a derivatives play. You don't hear much about it anymore, but I am guessing the derivatives market is still huge compared to the underlying. If you corner the real estate market, you corner the real estate derivatives market.

 

[nutmeg]

Quote from Arnie:

These type statistics are meaningless.

Fwiw.

I did check Trulia after the other poster mentioned this increase. I've been following one zip code since '07. Sort of a housing indicator for my personal use. Prices went up about 10 - 15% during the boom and are now back to where they were in '07.

No gain for 5 years.

 

[ajsyverson83]

I just bought a property in one of the cities referenced. Of course the statistics don't take into account the variation from month-to-month in different sizes, locations, etc. of the properties, but with a large enough sample the trend will approximately tell the story of what's been happening.

And just ask anyone who's familiar at all with the RE market in those cities...prices ARE experiencing double-digit (or at the very least, high single-digit) growth. I just hope it continues

 

[Bob111]

just curios -what happens to the volume at zillow? interesting to see it,as rates are moving up,but unfortunately-it's not updating anymore

 

[Ash1972]

Quote from ajsyverson83:

...prices ARE experiencing double-digit (or at the very least, high single-digit) growth. I just hope it continues

It won't. This is an even stupider bubble than the last one.

 

[Zr1Trader]

40+ year bear in housing has happened before....


Could just be a bear market rally.

 

[Mercor]

THERE IS NO BOOM ONLY SPECULATION
Prices up , home ownership down.
Obama is not helping the middle class. Obama is allowing Hedge funds and speculators, his cronies, to buy up homes.
___________________________

U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1995
By Prashant Gopal & John Gittelsohn - Apr 30, 2013 10:55 AM CT

The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest in almost 18 years, reflecting rising demand for rentals and investor purchases in the housing market.

The number of homes on the market in March was down 16.8 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

Investors are buying single-family homes and renting them out to capitalize on demand among families unable to qualify for a mortgage. Their purchases, many made with cash, are helping to support the housing recovery and pushing up prices. Home values in 20 cities increased 9.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the most since May 2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller (SPCS20Y%) index released today.

The number of homes on the market in March was down 16.8 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

 

[ofthomas]

Quote from peilthetraveler:

I talked with some of these hedge funds and they say that their plan is to buy & hold for 5 years. My biggest worry though is that these guys might be trying to corner the rental market in specific cities. If they control the majority of the available homes for rent, they could easily push up rental prices forcing more working adults under one roof to afford rent. As the rents get higher, so do real estate prices when people see that it might be cheaper to buy an overpriced house than pay for overpriced rent.

actually, look at it this way... as the rents get higher and the cost of borrowing remains the same, it will be more cost effective to buy vs. rent... and there will be those that will then start buying, pushing up prices... which will result on the RE funds to start selling inventory slowly to ensure prices dont skyrocket or drop from releasing inventory... but before that, construction starts will pickup, but given building a home in the USA takes at least 6-12 months, inventory will start getting pressured and funds will flip more... at the end of the day, those funds dont want to own SFR but rather office space or apartment complexes, something that can mitigate the vacancy rate... as such, any play for SFR is for appreciation and they will be first in line to sell if they get anything over 50% appreciation from acquisition cost...

anyhow, just my 2 cents... from personal knowledge in this case...

 

[pikachu9]

Quote from Zr1Trader:

40+ year bear in housing has happened before....


Could just be a bear market rally.

I don't know how much I trust that chart because if it's indexed for CPI, we all know how flawed the CPI is.