Real Clear Politics Average Down to 1% lead for Obama
- Thread starter wildchild
- Start date
Not surprising at all imo.That can only be expected with a major 3rd party candidate.I've look at a lot of previous polls and the only time a candidate held a consistent 10 point lead was Bush/Clinton because Perot was consistently polling at 10 %
Romney should be ahead around 4 points right now
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/
"The other anomaly has been in the summer months â June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent partyâs candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent partyâs candidate from the July polls until November."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/do-presidential-polls-break-toward-challengers/
"The other anomaly has been in the summer months â June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent partyâs candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent partyâs candidate from the July polls until November."
Unless there is a legit 3rd party candidate it is always close.Its a myth that the incumbent is supposed to be leading the challenger by multiple points.
Obama is doing much better then previous incumbents thanks to romney being such a bad candidate
prove my post wrong.name some incumbents who were doing better then obama is now