Real Bullish Move in Crude Today!!!

BlueStreek · Mar 12, 2009

Right after being smacked down over 4 bucks in two days, after failing to brake out to $50, and shorts lined up to ride this back down to 38-42 range, boom, new long-term money came rushing into this CL.

I know it is down right now, but you can expect overnight this thing to turn green, gap up, and make a run for 50 tomorrow-maybe even 51--a bunch of shorts in the 48ish range, with profits right now, who will be squeezed out tomorrow.

Next week Oil could make a run at $55 with just a moderate cut by OPEC, looks like hedge fund money wants to get in and ride this thing to July 4th.

Dollar tried to break out, but failed--that should provide some stimulus to this trade as well---not sure how much a retracement to expect in the dollar`s recent move--maybe .38 retracement.

But the commodities trade is starting to form again!

trader_david · Mar 12, 2009

i bought it at 43.5 and got out at 44. then shorted it at 44.13, bought back at 43.65.

then bought it again at morning high 44.3, sold it at 47.

looks we will break through 50 easily. I think the government is manipulating it and try to keep it down. from my feeling, it is strongly going up toward 55~65 range.

but it will not go directly up. i shorted some again at 47.19 with stop loss at 47.5, will retrace to 45~46 range, so far so good.

trader_david · Mar 13, 2009

looks my feeling is right. my stop loss is hit, I just reshorted it at 48.
covered it at 45.85.

trader_david · Mar 16, 2009

covered my short at 44.3, and went long @44.3, sold it at 47.37, crude is fun to trade. it is in a range, hope it will hold in this range for a period of time. the longer the strong the breakout. we all know it will soon jump out of the 40~50 box

bond_trad3r · Mar 16, 2009

It's going to the moon! The only reason it collapsed from $149 because it appeared the economy was doomed.

spanish89 · Mar 16, 2009

Aloha trader david mate...,
me and a couple of guys all day trade crude oil, and post daily trade calls and analysis throughout the day in my journal...,

And as you seem like a decent trade your more than welcome to join us mate...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=134046

spanish89 · Mar 16, 2009

Quote from trader_david:

and went long @44.3

Can i ask what technical formation or fundamentals you based going long on though mate?? :eek:

Becuase for the last 3months oil movements take 2 t 4days average now, as they move extremely slowly but have huge elongated trends.

And so what made you choose to buy the monring after opec failed to cut??

(Some of it was priced in, but there was no way of knowing to what extent it was priced in).

Thanks

PAPA ROACH · Mar 16, 2009

Crude will likely not have any meaningful breakout to the upside without the equities going along too, heavily correlated trade for awhile now. Here is the paradox on that, is the bounce in a few commodities like crude signaling the short covering in equities or the other way around? Who is the leader?

trader_david · Mar 16, 2009

i do did several profitable trades on crude recently, most time just by sheer luck. normally I use stock index if there is no crude related news,they are highly related.

the best reliable indicator is the chart itself or the chart pattern. I studied the intra-day chart pattern very carefully so i am familar with them. after a while, you will notice crude has strong intra-day/daily chart patterns.

one thing puzzled me is: after 2:30pm, crude will always be traded in a tight range, very stange. so at that time, i will do some scalping, if you did 10 times, maybe can get decent profit too.

Quote from spanish89:

Can i ask what technical formation or fundamentals you based going long on though mate?? :eek:

Becuase for the last 3months oil movements take 2 t 4days average now, as they move extremely slowly but have huge elongated trends.

And so what made you choose to buy the monring after opec failed to cut??

(Some of it was priced in, but there was no way of knowing to what extent it was priced in).

Thanks

Susannah · Mar 16, 2009

Quote from trader_david:

i do did several profitable trades on crude recently, most time just by sheer luck. normally I use stock index if there is no crude related news,they are highly related.

the best reliable indicator is the chart itself or the chart pattern. I studied the intra-day chart pattern very carefully so i am familar with them. after a while, you will notice crude has strong intra-day/daily chart patterns.

one thing puzzled me is: after 2:30pm, crude will always be traded in a tight range, very stange. so at that time, i will do some scalping, if you did 10 times, maybe can get decent profit too.

Trading floor closes at 2:30 central time - you're essentially trading AH after that.