you never hear much about forecasting except by the infomercial types. more down to earth "reactionary" technical analysis is dominated by the moment.
forecasting can only be thought about in two separate realms to me.
from my viewpoint all i see are different people discovering the same old stuff as if it never existed in the first place. it's like "groundhog day" stuck endlessly, an unwilling observer having to watch history rewinding over and over.
it's a sad benchmark of existence when this no expansion beyond the known, where like "red queen theory" one has to run as fast as they can to simply stay in place. the extraordinary effort required to breakaway from gravity is typically not only beyond most individuals abilities, but beyond the awareness that such exploration is even possible or even needed.
when you peel back the curtains of all the wizards and audit their portrayals of wizardry, still old mechanical levers and cables are propelling the props on the stage of the show "quants".
~m
forecasting can only be thought about in two separate realms to me.
- one of which are the readily dismissed chest beaters who tout all the magnificent trades they called back in history. yet a glimpse of the actual forecast might reveal a what if scenario that would include a variety of possibilities.
- the other brings to mind professor types wearing lab coats and writing academic papers which prove without doubt they have solved the mystery of the market and it's only the failure of the less intelligent to properly implement the plan for success.
from my viewpoint all i see are different people discovering the same old stuff as if it never existed in the first place. it's like "groundhog day" stuck endlessly, an unwilling observer having to watch history rewinding over and over.
it's a sad benchmark of existence when this no expansion beyond the known, where like "red queen theory" one has to run as fast as they can to simply stay in place. the extraordinary effort required to breakaway from gravity is typically not only beyond most individuals abilities, but beyond the awareness that such exploration is even possible or even needed.
when you peel back the curtains of all the wizards and audit their portrayals of wizardry, still old mechanical levers and cables are propelling the props on the stage of the show "quants".
~m
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