Re-visiting the March lows or going even lower?
- Thread starter Jumpshot
- Start date
Finally, fear and depression setting again after a long time. haven't heard from doomsayers (Roubini, Taleb, Buffett yet). I will wait a little longer before turning fully bullish.
This is the 1,000,000 USD question isn't it. It certainly is possible, as the decline in margin debt still has quite a ways to go compared to the deline in 2000-2003. Also, I see absolutely no indication of ultimate capitualtion by the last standing bulls.
However, it is clear that the government wants a ranging market. But in the long run I fail to see who will continue to buy stock. Boomer spending peaked in 2000 (SP500 top) and as subsequent waves of boomers exit their period of increased consumption, a bull market seems unlikely.
The key is to figure out how many mutual funds held by the boomers have already been liquidated and how many are still hanging on. This is the ultimate retail base that needs to be analyzed.
Its odd that very people talk about demographics. If you are in your twenties or thirties the retirement of the baby boomers is a huge deal. I stress often to my friends that even if there wasnt a crisis the boomers are sellers of assets for the next 20 years.
People who think we are going to re-test the March lows are pretty much the same the same people that make trading sometimes so darn easy.
I find it so comical how misinformed and stupid people are.
The chances of us breaching the March lows? 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% barring a very absurd black swan event.
I find it so comical how misinformed and stupid people are.
The chances of us breaching the March lows? 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% barring a very absurd black swan event.
And this introspective analysis is based on what? Faith?
People were probably saying the same thing about reaching 666 in the FIRST place.
There is always a chance of anything happening. The only fools are those who are so convinced of a particular outcome.
I have no problem with people encouraging bullish sentiment. Without bulls, I will not make much being a bear. Please continue to line my pockets.
The ES December 2009 Put with a strike of 660 is about $13. You can use different assumptions of current, historical, or implied volatility and arrive at different probabilities of touching that level but no matter what you use the market is assigning a 20% or more chance of the market retouching the lows.
Since you value these options at less than one penny, I will buy as many as you can afford to sell for five cents. How many do you wish to sell?
Who exactly is âmisinformed and stupidâ?
