Rcanfiel: What Doesn't Work on Wall Street
- Thread starter Duref Mudgins
- Start date
Hmmm. I hardly know how to respond, since I am focused so tightly on intraday trading, even scalping. I assume you refer to your preferred time frame of 1-3 days. If so, how do you get statistical methods to work with such relatively small samples, especially since there is an upward bias to the markets?
I have looked back over many years of daily data. Given that price action is considered fractal over most time scales, I think it makes minor difference, so I prefer to trade on large time scales. But I do not think beyond a couple of days, there is much purpose in prognosticating. NOW is the important time.
And to the extent that you can comment, what DOES work on Wall Street?
What works on Wall Street? I doubt it is the same thing that home traders use. One of the few things that ET people seem to mostly agree on learning to read pure price action. You need to put in the screen time to learn. Indicators mostly lag. Thus this is part of the criticism against classical TA approaches.
But I donât be posting my own particular methodologies here. I do not wish to see my own methods published in the WSJ lol. âDiscoveryâ almost always reduces an inefficiency. In fact, I once read that the start of the January effect had moved into December, as people tried to pile in ahead of others.
I differ from most traders on Black Box systems. To me, anyone willing to disclose his methods probably has little to disclose. Those who do well usually wonât divulge their proprietary methods.
Oh, and congratulations! You seem to have found the perfect work and still be able to trade. There is always that awful dilemma otherwise that you make too much money working to quit and trade full time. And BTW, I tried swing trading for a few years and failed miserably at it, so you have my respect for succeeding at that.
I like what I do for a job, and I like the office environment. Staying at home and staring at a screen for 6-7 hours alone does not appeal to me, personally. But some people like that, and that is fine. You have to find your niche. Since scalpers suffer similar same commission and slippage as holding for the entire session, I believe there is an inherent advantage to this method.
For most traders, it takes a hell of a lot just to equal a professional job & benefits, year in and year out. Planning a daily trade only takes me about 15 minutes a day, so I would be bored without working. I think this is also why some people start blogs, advisories, websites, etc. They like the camaraderie and teaching newer traders.[/QUOTE]
I have looked back over many years of daily data. Given that price action is considered fractal over most time scales, I think it makes minor difference, so I prefer to trade on large time scales. But I do not think beyond a couple of days, there is much purpose in prognosticating. NOW is the important time.
And to the extent that you can comment, what DOES work on Wall Street?
What works on Wall Street? I doubt it is the same thing that home traders use. One of the few things that ET people seem to mostly agree on learning to read pure price action. You need to put in the screen time to learn. Indicators mostly lag. Thus this is part of the criticism against classical TA approaches.
But I donât be posting my own particular methodologies here. I do not wish to see my own methods published in the WSJ lol. âDiscoveryâ almost always reduces an inefficiency. In fact, I once read that the start of the January effect had moved into December, as people tried to pile in ahead of others.
I differ from most traders on Black Box systems. To me, anyone willing to disclose his methods probably has little to disclose. Those who do well usually wonât divulge their proprietary methods.
Oh, and congratulations! You seem to have found the perfect work and still be able to trade. There is always that awful dilemma otherwise that you make too much money working to quit and trade full time. And BTW, I tried swing trading for a few years and failed miserably at it, so you have my respect for succeeding at that.
I like what I do for a job, and I like the office environment. Staying at home and staring at a screen for 6-7 hours alone does not appeal to me, personally. But some people like that, and that is fine. You have to find your niche. Since scalpers suffer similar same commission and slippage as holding for the entire session, I believe there is an inherent advantage to this method.
For most traders, it takes a hell of a lot just to equal a professional job & benefits, year in and year out. Planning a daily trade only takes me about 15 minutes a day, so I would be bored without working. I think this is also why some people start blogs, advisories, websites, etc. They like the camaraderie and teaching newer traders.[/QUOTE]
Reaver quotes:
--- I'm telling you Tim, just handle this shit like a real man. Go lay out some plastic sheets in your bathroom, walk back into the bedroom, take the revolver out of the nightstand, go back into the bathroom and redecorate the walls brain matter gray.
Stop fighting this like a weak sissy boy. If you're having problems pulling the trigger just listen to some Ozzy or something.
--- Fuck it, Fuck this track record shit. I challenge Tim to a duel. With butterfly knives. Like they did in the Beat It video. Let's do this thing. Behind Kmart motherfucker.
Well, this guy is now on ignore.
You have interesting views, Rcanfiel. And to those asking for proof, in these interviews I am being polite. I believe that non-traders eventually say unutterably stupid things that expose themselves as frauds. I'm still with you, Rcanfiel. In fact, although I disagree with you about fractality, I am going to relook at whether or not my one-minute stuff might apply to swing trading. The bane of the daytrader is the overnight moves he doesn't dare trade that have outrageous spreads and death spikes. Those keep him from making as much money as the successful swing trader, IMO.
So where to go next? Let's talk charting for a minute. I'm guessing that with your time frame that you could look at a free Yahoo chart and do your thing EOD. Correct? If not, what can you say about your charting landscape?
So where to go next? Let's talk charting for a minute. I'm guessing that with your time frame that you could look at a free Yahoo chart and do your thing EOD. Correct? If not, what can you say about your charting landscape?
Reaver, where I'm from we spell it Reiver, and hereabouts it means gypsy white trash. If anybody is going to rip Rcanfiel, it's going to be me, until I am finished, then you can have him. And asking me if Duref Mudgins is a real name shows how fucking stupid you are. LOOK at it, dummy!
You have interesting views, Rcanfiel. And to those asking for proof, in these interviews I am being polite. I believe that non-traders eventually say unutterably stupid things that expose themselves as frauds.
This goes back to your earlier comment about the nonvalue of many books. They seem written by people who are fascinated by some of the nonsensical things. from Gann to financial astrology to a lot of other things that are unsupported by
Although I said I follow a few periodicals like TASC, Futures & Active Trader, they mostly have a problem which makes me discard entire articles. Author slaps up an indicator or slant on a method. Define the TS code. Show a few well-chosen examples, and the article writer gets some notoriety. Problem is, most articles don't bother showing a significant track record to at least partly evidence its value. When someone shows me 10 years of S&P that a certain method outperforms, I consider it interesting. Anything else is a waste of paper. But honestly, few things from magazines influences my trading methods, per se. Although I have applied a few things from money management, diversification, position sizing, etc. if the writing is backtested thoroughly.
I'm still with you, Rcanfiel. In fact, although I disagree with you about fractality, I am going to relook at whether or not my one-minute stuff might apply to swing trading. The bane of the daytrader is the overnight moves he doesn't dare trade that have outrageous spreads and death spikes. Those keep him from making as much money as the successful swing trader, IMO.
In personal trading, I don't like to hold overnight. Most of the action is from 9:30-4 EST. Why hold the other 100 plus hours when a catastrophe can wipe out a leveraged trader?
So where to go next? Let's talk charting for a minute. I'm guessing that with your time frame that you could look at a free Yahoo chart and do your thing EOD. Correct? If not, what can you say about your charting landscape?
I suppose a chart is a chart. Barchart, Yahoo, Freecharts, etc etc. As long as they keep data glitches to an acceptable level
This goes back to your earlier comment about the nonvalue of many books. They seem written by people who are fascinated by some of the nonsensical things. from Gann to financial astrology to a lot of other things that are unsupported by
Although I said I follow a few periodicals like TASC, Futures & Active Trader, they mostly have a problem which makes me discard entire articles. Author slaps up an indicator or slant on a method. Define the TS code. Show a few well-chosen examples, and the article writer gets some notoriety. Problem is, most articles don't bother showing a significant track record to at least partly evidence its value. When someone shows me 10 years of S&P that a certain method outperforms, I consider it interesting. Anything else is a waste of paper. But honestly, few things from magazines influences my trading methods, per se. Although I have applied a few things from money management, diversification, position sizing, etc. if the writing is backtested thoroughly.
I'm still with you, Rcanfiel. In fact, although I disagree with you about fractality, I am going to relook at whether or not my one-minute stuff might apply to swing trading. The bane of the daytrader is the overnight moves he doesn't dare trade that have outrageous spreads and death spikes. Those keep him from making as much money as the successful swing trader, IMO.
In personal trading, I don't like to hold overnight. Most of the action is from 9:30-4 EST. Why hold the other 100 plus hours when a catastrophe can wipe out a leveraged trader?
So where to go next? Let's talk charting for a minute. I'm guessing that with your time frame that you could look at a free Yahoo chart and do your thing EOD. Correct? If not, what can you say about your charting landscape?
I suppose a chart is a chart. Barchart, Yahoo, Freecharts, etc etc. As long as they keep data glitches to an acceptable level
Thanks for your interesting responses. I think I misread an earlier post. So you ARE trading intraday?
If you think it would be illuminating, let's affirm or demolish some classical TA. First off, what IS classical TA? I would start with Richard Schabacker's 1934 book "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits". I can talk highlights of that, or you can pick one and I'll try to follow.
If you think it would be illuminating, let's affirm or demolish some classical TA. First off, what IS classical TA? I would start with Richard Schabacker's 1934 book "Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits". I can talk highlights of that, or you can pick one and I'll try to follow.