RBS study on trading moon phases

A

afto

Trendlines, trendline breaks, trendline fakes, price action, price reaction, Elliot waves, Wolffe waves, Ichimaku clouds, butterfly patterns, bow-legged dog patterns, technical analysis, candlestick analysis, analyst analysis, Fibs, ribs. Have I missed anyone?

Ok, forget all that stuff - just for the moment and read this.....

http://www.tfnn.com/files/RBSMoonPhase.pdf
 
I've seen this correlation before. You might improve on the results by buying when Congress is out of session and selling when it is in session.
 
After reading this I conclude that - as they claim - in rising markets most of the gains are between the new and full moon. In falling markets it doesn't make a difference.

Interesting. I wonder whether there is selection bias in this study and there are other markets where this strategy did not work.
 
There's quite a few behavioral finance papers like that out there. For example, there's a study out there that suggests that stocks perform better on sunny days than they do on days when weather is crap. Unfortunately, the techniques used for these event studies can't guarantee that the conclusions aren't spurious. So, at best, you're left with a bunch of rather fascinating conjectures. Moreover, the observed abnormal returns are too small to be practically obtainable.
 
Imo, several problems.

You'd have to study the psychological effect on human nature and the lunar cycles.

Lunar cycles theories always bring to mind option expiry.

Lastly - RBS ????? I'd expect this theory from a professor. Imagine GS putting this out there?
 
have we had the eclipse yet?

Arch Crawford was all worked up about the eclipse calling for the end of mankind.

2012 the Mayan Calender end date... that ought to be interesting in the markets don't you think?~si
 
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