Today, OPEC revised it's future demand estimates downward. Despite this, the price of gasoline on this contract didn't fall. It's currently up 0.0066 on the day. Maybe a good sign that it's tested this bottom? Only the future will tell.
RBM21
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
CannonTrading_Ilan
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Things are not looking good. Oil prices went way down. Much of the reason is because Iran and Libya are starting to increase production and they are exempt from the production cut agreements. There's new lockdowns in Europe, vaccine side effects, airline layoffs...
As mentioned earlier, the price started to go up in Apr 2020.
And it reached a peak in Jun 2020.
Subsequently, it appears that there is no more opportunity to long it.
Personally, if I don't feel comfortable with the trade, I'd lessen my position.
They started to go up in March...
You're saying they reached a peak in June despite the fact that they have since been higher than June, and despite the fact that we're still significantly bellow normal demand statistics due to Covid? That doesn't make sense.
When I placed this trade, I was betting that it wouldn't drop below the lows of June. This is how I determined how much I money I put in the trade. It still has not dropped below that. And my original prediction was that demand and prices would return to more normal levels when the pandemic eased up. I have until next June for this to happen. I just wish I could use the cash for something else now. But I'll stick with the trade.
Well I lost on this one...
When I placed the trade in August at 1.3922, I was thinking no way it would go below its June lows of 1.25, and certainly not of 1.22. It hovered just over 1.25 many times before going back up...
Then yesterday it tanked to below 1.22. I was going to sell yesterday but I decided to wait for the weekly gasoline report to be released in just a few hours. Surprisingly, gasoline demand increased from the previous week. So I decided to hang on a little longer... But just now I saw it at 1.216 and sold it. I believe I lost 129% of my original maintenance margin.
I'm completely done with position trading and will be doing only algorithmic trading from now on.
When I placed the trade in August at 1.3922, I was thinking no way it would go below its June lows of 1.25, and certainly not of 1.22. It hovered just over 1.25 many times before going back up...
Then yesterday it tanked to below 1.22. I was going to sell yesterday but I decided to wait for the weekly gasoline report to be released in just a few hours. Surprisingly, gasoline demand increased from the previous week. So I decided to hang on a little longer... But just now I saw it at 1.216 and sold it. I believe I lost 129% of my original maintenance margin.
I'm completely done with position trading and will be doing only algorithmic trading from now on.
:-( You can thank Pelosi, McConell and Mnuchin for that one. If the stimulus had passed, RB would be heading up, not down.
Nah. It's all about the virus. Europe headed back to lockdown. OPEC is bending over backwards to even keep it from plummeting further.
But I'll be kicking myself next year if it goes back up after the vaccines are widespread. I hope I forget to check.