RB contango?

[farmerjohn1324]

I own RBM21 (June 2021) currently at $1.2785.

Should I expect the price to automatically decline as it approaches expiration? Similar to time decay in options?

Here is a list of prices for RB contracts...

RBX20 (November 2020) = 1.1334
RBZ20 (December 2020) = 1.1218
RBF21 (January 2021) = 1.1206
RBG21 (February 2021) = 1.1323
RBH21 (March 2021) = 1.1486
RBJ21 (April 2021) = 1.26
RBK21 (May 2021) = 1.2747
RBM21 (June 2021) = 1.2785

What's the reason for the big jump from March to April 2021?

 

[maxinger]

The further month contracts have very low volume
price can jump up or down massively.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

The further month contracts have very low volume
price can jump up or down massively.

I have never seen my contract RBM21 as low as the front 5 months. Does that tell you anything?

 

[BKR88]

I own RBM21 (June 2021) currently at $1.2785.

Should I expect the price to automatically decline as it approaches expiration? Similar to time decay in options?

Here is a list of prices for RB contracts...

RBX20 (November 2020) = 1.1334
RBZ20 (December 2020) = 1.1218
RBF21 (January 2021) = 1.1206
RBG21 (February 2021) = 1.1323
RBH21 (March 2021) = 1.1486
RBJ21 (April 2021) = 1.26
RBK21 (May 2021) = 1.2747
RBM21 (June 2021) = 1.2785

What's the reason for the big jump from March to April 2021?

https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices

 

[Overnight]

I have never seen my contract RBM21 as low as the front 5 months. Does that tell you anything?

Don't worry...If a pipeline explodes somewhere carrying the RB, you'll see the numbers flip.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices

So you're saying I shouldn't worry about a sudden drop of about $0.12 as the contract approaches expiration?

 

[BKR88]

So you're saying I shouldn't worry about a sudden drop of about $0.12 as the contract approaches expiration?

No.
What appears to be contango is just the transition from winter blend to summer blend.