Rate hike odds plunge, yep more excuses not to raise rates in 2016

S

S2007S

The fed is looking for the perfect scenario to raise rates and that will never ever ever ever happen as they can just come up with any excuse why the scenario isn't perfect to raise them and that is why rates will stay at historical lows for the next decade to come.....if anything a little blip in economic activity and that huge .25% rate hike they did just months ago will be taken back as rates go back down to zero percent and eventually negative as more QE gets pumped into the market to keep the "economic activity" moving along....as you can see nothing works but everyone will figure alllll of that out well after the next crisis has come....just sit tight and watch the fed take action as they always do to keep wallstreet humming along....



http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/06/rate...april-jobs-report-badly-misses-estimates.html
 
Does anyone have any clue of the end game of a never seen before environment of infinite zero rates? Clearly there is a large part of the population that is unemployable (it's why Trump won) unless there is a structural change in industry as a whole.

Me thinks technology has and continues to do it's inherent reason for being: deflate costs by eliminating humans. Which implies inflation is a thing of the past.. See what fracking (technology) has done to oil?
 
cvds16 said:
will you keep on opening threads with the same rambling going on ... nobody gives a fuck ...
More...


It's not the same....prior to the jobs report this morning the odds of a rate hike moving into the rest of 2016 were a lot higher so after today's job miss the game has been tweaked even more....so this is a new thread to introduce that odds have now been lowered even more now than ever before...
 
S2007S said:
It's not the same....prior to the jobs report this morning the odds of a rate hike moving into the rest of 2016 were a lot higher so after today's job miss the game has been tweaked even more....so this is a new thread to introduce that odds have now been lowered even more now than ever before...
More...
The cumulative odds of a rate hike in 2016 moved by all of 2% today...
 
S2007S said:
Well the headline they used sounded like more than a 2% move....
More...

And you bought it.

CNBC is so desperate to get you click on everything on their page. It's really sad.

"Warren Buffett says THIS will make the Dow go to 100,000"

"Expert says THIS ONE THING will cause the markets to drop sharply in coming weeks"

I think the term is "clickbait".
 
S2007S said:
The fed is looking for the perfect scenario to raise rates and that will never ever ever ever happen as they can just come up with any excuse why the scenario isn't perfect to raise them and that is why rates will stay at historical lows for the next decade to come.....
More...

We should get used to it - the game of a finding an excuse not to raise a rate has been on for a several years. Nobody will tell us the real reason why the rates are not raised. We have different excuses al the time. The real reason on y opinion is that FREE FED's money created number of bubble fund managers who borrowed the money just to invest in any stocks again and again and again. We already heard number of funds reported bad 2015. Even JPM's 2015 investment revenue is not bright. I guess this is just a tip of an iceberg.

Why nobody shows us the top 50 fanatical institution borrowed from FED:
- how much each of them borrowed
- where the money were invested
- performance of these investments
- how much of interest they should pay

I am sure FED has his numbers and it is not difficult to calculate what going to happen if interest rates are risen.

It is very difficult to expect any action in front of coming elections. Everybody remember devastating Conservative party loss in 2008 during the market crash and massive layoffs. I prefer Democrats to Conservative, but I have bad feeling they do whatever it take to delay the market recession and fulfill an agenda of a one man to have 8 years of prosperity. If the market meant to dive into a recession (personally I think we are since May of 2015), do Democrats want to have recession now or it is better for them to have it delay until at least December?
 
The consortium of CB's in negative territory is probably the biggest reason they "can't move" to normalize rates...Even with the one and done and some serious backtracking in February, it clearly took a meaningful dollar sell-off (obviously to goose crude oil prices which was something they hinted at)...so any "hawkish" talk and dollar strength and we repeat Jan-Feb again...and these are not the types to want to stir any controversy (consequences be damned)...Even Druckenmiller alluded to the fact that the biggest "data set" for the Fed is the price of the S&P 500...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top