ras72 EURUSD

ras72

ras72

ras72 EURUSD

Ten months experience studying spot EURUSD. Presently in a 61% drawdown.

Discretionary, I use my own brain. Directional. Read dozens of books. Settled for Alan Parson's Eye in The Sky. No system and certainly no backtesting ('cause I'm not stupid). Nothing fancy. A bit of buying. A bit of selling. Limited use of stops on the chart. Lots of averaging, blashing and shabling. 400:1 leveraged account. Mostly feeling around lightweight, gradual adjustments, occasionally all in.

Minimal commercial software, unstable Internet connection and power supply. Aiming to make hundreds of times starting capital in a few months. Based on US brokers data, factoring in the high leverage and what not, estimating zero chances of success; a blind man's run.

Occasional market calls. Possibly even before the fact. Have questions or somehow you feel you have s.thing interesting to contribute, knock yourself out.

Week starting 20140623. Expecting move up, to 1.37+

ras72
 
Last week was the worst ever in ten months. Distraction, loss of balance and focus. Mistakes unprecedented in nature and severity. Trades' related posting's experiment over.

ras72
 
One year 400:1 EURUSD, “...and it's gone!” :D
Spectacularly extraordinary returns not presently accessible.
Steps make €300/month tuition come to fruition.
Chill. Then back as before. Standard drill.

Quite frustrating shyte. There are and there will always be fuckers with superior vision than mine. Can't keep track of the succession of plays and there's likely even more besides. Should accept limitations and be practical.

Appreciation of the farce far above suckers'. Result mostly psycho related. Improve infrastructure, write some, rein in pulsions setting head right and scale back ambitions from spectacularly extraordinary to far superior returns. It's perfectly dignified.

ras72
 
One year on.

Two months back trading. Improved my infrastructure and expanded my knowledge.

At first, again taking too high risks, oversizing, emotional destabilization, losses. It's like a car with excessive torque, spinning wheels, going nowhere, losing control and crashing. Wasting years.
I'm seeing it more clearly. I'm not going to reduce account leverage, still 400:1. The account leverage is immaterial, it is about the effective leverage of the position, while the account lev. is just the maximum possible. Not going to limit myself to a systematized approach of rigidly defined set-ups either. And also not going for rigid entry-TP-SL. However I am going to be more specific about the parameters. And I'll try to be more discerning and selective.

I opted for a mental target of 1.2 factor per week. I adopted a concept of 'working capital' and 'maneuver capital'; specifically, carrying a 0.2 position around using 0.8 to move it, reducing on favorable moves and increasing on unfavorable ones. This should be done regardless of whether it represents a loss or a profit. In practice it is not always mentally easy. The idea is withstanding a retracement or a lateral phase while holding on to a position in the direction of the trend. When and in what measure to add or reduce is the key.
I also still have a major issue about what to do when I actually see a set-up opposite my position and bias: reduce, seeing it through at the risk of it overextending, or reverse at the risk of getting screwed both ways? Both carry direct and psycho-emotional consequences, which need to be managed of course!

Been playing that way for the past four weeks and made x1.3 average pw, but twice I found myself overextended and it is clearly not sustainable. I'm going for 0.1/0.9 position management.

Another issue is when to push it. Originally I thought I could get away with all-ins with rigid SL at the best and most precise opportunities. I now consider this a bit too extreme and emotionally destabilizing, when the SL represents maybe an entire week's profit! So maybe I'll use double or triple the standard position but still with a SL for at least the part exceeding the standard, so enter 0.3 but get out for 0.2 for a quick loss if underwater even by little. I sense it could be a challenge for me as with my style of trading, I have come to consider getting shaken out a capital offence and first degree idiocy. And yet that is what I am calling myself upon to do. Hopefully the partial measure should alleviate the pain ( :D ).
All-ins will be restricted to higher degree add-ons to a prexisting position for a higher scale play.

All of the above strategizing in order to reduce direct financial risk, limit emotional involment, allow better focus on interpreting the price action. Like a high torque but limited slip supercar. If it doesn't work I'll need to scale back further.
 
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Week 5; 1.32
Week 6; 0.90

Last week starting 20150928, Mon-Wed flat. Thu, Fri account swinged between 1.15 and 0.82 over previous week. Friday I woke up at 5 AM CET to check on my good size short finding there was no Internet line; no telecom at all. Local provider problem as it turned out. It forced me to stop out.
In the afternoon the NFP data had me short lightweight as the market spiked up up to 160 pips, or 5.7 times the position. I handled it like a trader. My position and price met again two hours later, went green, closed out for a profit :) and ...reversed long. Too early evidently as price kept going down all evening with little retr. Traded it but closed the week with a position underwater.

I must register my profound disappointment with the way EURUSD behaved. Thu and Fri moves were textbook trendlines compliance and the last one even had strong retail backing! What happened is unconscionable. If this keeps up, simple folk will be making money! I'm utterly disgusted. :D
 
Week 7; 2.06

It's Thursday but I'm closing now. I'm exhausted. The account swinged between 0.52 to 2.1.
I learned a lot.
Monday. Don't even remember what I did. Lost a little. Timing was off.
Tuesday. Got chopped in range while trying to position for the up swing due. Account massively hit. Paused a few hours. Good state of mind. Resumed. Up swing played well. I backed the move blashing and shabling most of the run. Started with f 0.2 at the second and last dip before the start. blashed and shabled the range before the break-out increasing the position. Went 0.8 long at the down dip and was all in at the up BO. Reduced, increased, participated in the breaking of resistances. Closed right at the top. Account tripled.
Wed I was contracted from the fresh account record. Afraid. Hesitated, Missed. Overcorrected into recklessness. Lost some.
Thu I caught the signs. I was there all night CET position building. At one point I was in with 0.5 about. The last deep down move lead to some reduction. The swing turned out not as expected. Exited at the 3:40 CET top. I swear I did consider the possibility of an extension into Thu day but didn't play it. Not only that but when it actually started I was psycho upset and tried shorting. That lasted about one hour and included an impulsive revenge short after Stop. Caught it in two minutes but overall it costed me about 20% of the account. Longed for pocket moneys. Tried playing both sides. After the late morn top it started down. Closed the long. I saw a possible level at which to stop the fall and signal the up to my fellow traders :D. I positioned and waited. Longed at the signal. Signal was genuine; I wasn't the only one longing there. Price paused briefly then broke through. I unwinded the heavy long at the up retr. and reversed heavy short, Adjusted, reduced, set SL and TP and went to watch some TV (Masterchef re-run). The first down impulse had me put in some short limit orders and adjust SL TP. Went get s.thing to eat, watched more TV, The Simpsons, curiously the Marge blackjack card counting episode. Felt unpleasant watching the cartoon gambling action. Switched off, went back to the computer, price had spiked down, took my TP. Account back on top.
Closing week. If I played now I would lose the entire account.

I can't spend spend the nights like that. Lots of mistakes. Tiredness played a part. The potential there was way higher. Need to correct a lot. I should trade like a smooth operator not like a maniac. Skills and know-how are reasonably OK though.

Please nobody post in this thread.
 
Week 8; Bust
Week 9; 0.92

Week 8 I was caught off guard by the extent of the down move. I was lightweight long at the top and expecting small retr. and resumption. The retr. came more impulsive than anticipated. I was slightly panicky in stopping and overzelous in reversing and caught oversized short when the down seemed to be meeting strong opposition. Psycho emotional mistakes ensued.
Week 9. Account refinanced. View bullish for reasons which in hindsight were far too obvious to be credible... I was lightweight long then flat as I became more suspicious. I essentially struggled mentally between opposing views. At two different points I opened small shorts but lacked conviction. Was caught long on the down spike. Exited elegantly without a scratch. Got a bit scratched instead later on. Same as week before; mentally conflicted and ultimately picking the wrong side. Friday more of the same; mentally conflicted, the short felt wrong, the neutral felt too prudent, so I'm long. Of course nothing in the chart warrants anything other than a short. Except for one thing. Next week I may have to do some damage containment if it gaps down. On the other hand things could still get interesting to the up side.

This past two weeks I completely abandoned my “prudent” practices. I neglected the x1.2 account target and didn't take significant running profits. This because I was particularly focused on an up move extension. Everybody actually was... "Distraction" is what it is called technically, in the art of screwing people. A "misjudgement about the structure", is what it is interpretable as after the fact, in superficial sucker terms :D The suckiest of them all will even add letters and numbers.

Entering mid trend is difficult when focusing on seeking the ideal position at the beginning of the move. Two different mentalities. The way I need to trade, entering a move in progress is unlikely to be worth it. It is only for major swings.
Position building leads to abandoning the sound and fun, neutral blashing and shabling, means not reducing where appropriate, adding too much too eagerly, which leads to oversizing which brings about excessive exposure, apprehension → fear → doubt → loss.
400:1 and an intent to get outrageous returns can't afford the slightest mistake, loss of focus or lapse in judgement. I must be at my twentieth bust or thereabouts.
 
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