Rare Marketsurfer Stock Pick--SHORT

Chugga Chugga CHOOOO CHOOO. (the sound of a train)

Guy #1 (Not standing on the tracks, tallking to Guy #2 who is standing on the the tracks) "You better get out of the way, a mile long frieght train is coming full speed down the tracks"

Guy #2. "It will stop"

Guy #1. "Its a train, it can't"

Guy #2. "Well, if they dont stop they will run me over, and I know they wouldnt want to do that, so they will stop."


Chugga Chugga CHOOO CHOOOO.. WHistel, Engineering standing outside trying to wave off guy #2.

Train Engineer: "Move you crazy bastard!!!"

Guy #2 "Stop the train you crazy bastard, cant you see I'm standing right in fr..........................................."

Anyway, Hope your not #2 here surf. I agree that CROX is all hype. Also hospitals and ERs and what not have been an important part of their market, and there are a lot of hospitals starting to not allow them because they carry static or something like that. But in any case, If it was my money I'd be waiting for the momo to pause a little bit.

Brandon
 
No doubt, marketsurfer is busy. However, I do hope that he finds a moment to respond to my earlier post on the previous page:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1549314#post1549314

In the meantime, something has occurred to me. I notice that marketsurfer exhibits the dual need to both stir up controversy and to be right. It seems that this penchant is shared by his friend, VN. Interesting footsteps to follow. Do be careful how you tread, surf. And be sure to have proper footwear.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

No doubt, marketsurfer is busy. However, I do hope that he finds a moment to respond to my earlier post on the previous page:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1549314#post1549314

In the meantime, something has occurred to me. I notice that marketsurfer exhibits the dual need to both stir up controversy and to be right. It seems that this penchant is shared by his friend, VN. Interesting footsteps to follow. Do be careful how you tread, surf. And be sure to have proper footwear.
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Hey, that's funny :)
 
no horse in this race, but they have been moving higher the last few months mostly on positive reviews of their line of 9 designer boots and shoes (i had the same inkling to short before reading that). personally, they look ugly to me and it could well be a short, but if you're shorting just because 'they are a plastic shoe company.....'

Crocs, the maker of plastic clogs is introducing a new line of fashion footwear line, You by Crocs.

The introduction of the line of nine boots and shoes marks a departure for Crocs, which has logged huge sales from the popularity of its odd-looking, perforated shoes.

The new line of footwear marks a radical shift in pricing with the boots ranging from $149 to $299 a pair. That’s far above the $30 price on Crocs’ standard shoes.

Crocs’ push to broaden its product portfolio reflects the company's desire to avoid becoming a one hit wonder. On the strength of those early models, Crocs, Niwot, Colo., has rocketed from $1.2 million in revenue in 2003 to $354.7 million last year and a projected $670 million to $680 million this year. The company’s net last year was $64.4 million.
 
I like the jan 08 put idea and I know P/E's don't matter as much in a good market but this thing is at a 36 forward PE. That's reasonable for a growth stock. I'm not buying or selling this one.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

SHORT CROX---@48.

this company is built on an unsustainable fad of plastic shoes. its time to SHORT. Looking for < 20.

surf
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Quote from WoodyAllen:

Surf and Timothy Sykes (Timmay!) continue to collaborate and share each others strategies; so maybe that is the problem with BOTH of their poor performance records?

flash.jpg
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Quote from marketsurfer:

thanks for the replies.

stop is 55.34, maintaining shorts here. expecting death spiral to begin sometime prior to stop being taken out--- . this is classic, holding.

surf
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Now at $57.08

Every kid for miles is lined up at the mall buying these shoes where I live. Merchants can't keep them stocked.

While I believe the Crocs are a fad and I don't care for them myself..... this is definitely not a short based on what we are seeing currently..... some day it will be .... but not now.

- Greg
 
Crocs’ push to broaden its product portfolio reflects the company's desire to avoid becoming a one hit wonder. On the strength of those early models, Crocs, Niwot, Colo., has rocketed from $1.2 million in revenue in 2003 to $354.7 million last year and a projected $670 million to $680 million this year. The company’s net last year was $64.4 million.
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I remember an interview with shortmeister on, yes, the laffable CNBC, who nonetheless, for me anywayz, imparted some useful advice, e.g., "Don't short valuation". I would add, particularly if it's real. It's not a bad rule of thumb.

lj
 
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